NY Sports Dog: Brian Schneider: Just the Facts

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Brian Schneider: Just the Facts

In what I believe is a poor use of "statistical selection," Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News published a piece that pimped the stat work of another guy named Rubin (no relation, of course).

In the piece the writer asserts that the Mets bullpen problems were actually a catching problem, specifically a Brian Schneider problem.

The article publishes the following stats:

SANCHEZ caught by CASTRO 65 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=292
SCHNEIDER 108 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=454

HEILMAN caught by CASTRO 50 ABs , allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=340
SCHNEIDER 195 ABs, allows 9 HRs and OPP SLUG%=456

FELICIANO caught by CASTRO 36 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=306
SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=455

WAGNER caught by CASTRO 49 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=204
SCHNEIDER 99 ABs, allows 3 HRs and OPP SLUG%=313

SANTANA caught by CASTRO 333 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=297
SCHNEIDER 524 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=401

PEDRO M caught by CASTRO 138 ABs, allows 2 HRs and OPP SLUG%=377
SCHNEIDER 185 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=600!!!!!

Same phenomena holds with John Maine, Claudio Vargas and Nelson Figueroa. Fascinating, isn’t it?On the surface, these appear to be troubling numbers. After all, Schneider is the Mets starting catcher.
But as with most things, looking at all of the numbers provides a different result.

For example, we see no mention of Oliver Perez or several other Mets pitchers. How did they do with the two catchers?
How did Ollie fare with Schneider and Castro?

SCHNEIDER 472 ABs, allowed 16 HRs, .214 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.358
CASTRO 181 ABs, allowed 7 HRs, .262 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.450

Hmmmm, what about Schoeneweis?

SCHNEIDER 124 ABs, allowed 2 HRs, .226 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.323
CASTRO 47 ABs, allowed 4 HRs, .340 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.680

Even Joe Smith did better with Schneider:

SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allowed 3 HRs, .194 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.321
CASTRO 44 ABs, allowed 1 HR, .250 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.386
Now where were those stats in Adam Rubin's piece?

What about CERA? (Catcher's ERA)

CERA is the total ERA of all pitchers while the catcher was behind the plate.

Schneider at 4.13
Castro at 3.73

OK, edge to Castro, but both of the Mets catchers were in the top 1/3 of all big league catchers.

Caught Stealing was as follows:

Schneider at .333
Castro at .217

Edge to Schneider.

Schneider also has the edge in range factor and fielding percentage.

So while I really like Ramon Castro's game--he is the best backup catcher in the business--we shouldn't throw out Brian Schneider by picking random stats without looking at the whole situation.

A proper regression analysis using all available data would have been the right way to go. My guess is that study would have shown a marginal increase in performance with Ramon Castro at the dish. Unfortunately his body is not built for more than about 60 games a year.Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

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