Brian Schneider: Just the Facts

In what I believe is a poor use of "statistical selection," Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News published a piece that pimped the stat work of another guy named Rubin (no relation, of course).

In the piece the writer asserts that the Mets bullpen problems were actually a catching problem, specifically a Brian Schneider problem.

The article publishes the following stats:

SANCHEZ caught by CASTRO 65 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=292
SCHNEIDER 108 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=454

HEILMAN caught by CASTRO 50 ABs , allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=340
SCHNEIDER 195 ABs, allows 9 HRs and OPP SLUG%=456

FELICIANO caught by CASTRO 36 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=306
SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=455

WAGNER caught by CASTRO 49 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=204
SCHNEIDER 99 ABs, allows 3 HRs and OPP SLUG%=313

SANTANA caught by CASTRO 333 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=297
SCHNEIDER 524 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=401

PEDRO M caught by CASTRO 138 ABs, allows 2 HRs and OPP SLUG%=377
SCHNEIDER 185 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=600!!!!!

Same phenomena holds with John Maine, Claudio Vargas and Nelson Figueroa. Fascinating, isn’t it?On the surface, these appear to be troubling numbers. After all, Schneider is the Mets starting catcher.

But as with most things, looking at all of the numbers provides a different result.

For example, we see no mention of Oliver Perez or several other Mets pitchers. How did they do with the two catchers?

How did Ollie fare with Schneider and Castro?

SCHNEIDER 472 ABs, allowed 16 HRs, .214 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.358
CASTRO 181 ABs, allowed 7 HRs, .262 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.450

Hmmmm, what about Schoeneweis?

SCHNEIDER 124 ABs, allowed 2 HRs, .226 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.323
CASTRO 47 ABs, allowed 4 HRs, .340 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.680

Even Joe Smith did better with Schneider:

SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allowed 3 HRs, .194 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.321
CASTRO 44 ABs, allowed 1 HR, .250 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.386

Now where were those stats in Adam Rubin's piece?

What about CERA? (Catcher's ERA)

CERA is the total ERA of all pitchers while the catcher was behind the plate.

Schneider at 4.13
Castro at 3.73

OK, edge to Castro, but both of the Mets catchers were in the top 1/3 of all big league catchers.

Caught Stealing was as follows:

Schneider at .333
Castro at .217

Edge to Schneider.

Schneider also has the edge in range factor and fielding percentage.

So while I really like Ramon Castro's game--he is the best backup catcher in the business--we shouldn't throw out Brian Schneider by picking random stats without looking at the whole situation.

A proper regression analysis using all available data would have been the right way to go. My guess is that study would have shown a marginal increase in performance with Ramon Castro at the dish. Unfortunately his body is not built for more than about 60 games a year.

Warming to the Idea of Jon Garland

Mets need pitching, and there just aren't a lot of options.

If I were King, my priorities would be, in order:

Oliver Perez: 4 years at $52M
Derek Lowe: 3 years at $42M
Jon Garland: 3 years at $25M (incentives to $30M)
Braden Looper: 2 years at $14M

That's my rack and stack and what I think would get the deals done. Unfortunately, there just aren't many quality FA starting pitchers out there this year.

You know why I only like those 4?

Innings--all four of these starters go out and put up at or near 200 innings year after year.

The rest of the FA list is all over the place--very up and down, with injury histories throughout.

The Mets should spend money smartly on someone who will be able to take the mound every 5th day...we were burned by Pedro, sadly, and it just puts a huge amount of pressure on a team when you have starters go down for any length of time. We see this all over baseball--Mark Prior, Carl Pavano and on and on and on. Losing a starting pitcher is one of the most damaging things that can happen to a team in the pennant hunt.

People mock inning counts, but to me it is one of the best measuring sticks for a starting pitcher.

A starting pitcher who goes 200 innings year after year after year is a very, very valuable resource--it takes pressure off the bullpen, takes pressure off of the other starters, and it keeps the team grinding throughout the long season by not disrupting flow and momentum.

How many times last year did the Mets go into panic mode because yet another unknown entity was taking the hill in a key game? How much pressure did it put on middle relief, and then the domino affect into the closers and even the offense?

So yes Mets fans, I'm warming to the idea of Jon Garland, much to the chagrin of several of my fellow bloggers.

Sure, he was semi-bad last year on a good team, but let's go back to his 2007 splits:

RH: .281 BA, .315 OBP, .426 Slg
LH: .259 BA, .321 OBP, .401 Slg

That's pretty good....and yes, he threw 208.3 innings with a 112 ERA+ in 2007.

And again, going back to my requirement for an innings-eater, he certainly fits the bill.

Over the last 7 years, he has started 33 games twice, and 32 games 5 times. During that stretch, his innings counts were:

193 IP
192 IP
217 IP
221 IP
211 IP
208 IP
197 IP

Let's bottom line this: 10.5% of all Mets starts last year (17 to be exact) came from Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas.

The Mets must make a reliable innings-eating starter a priority. If not Derek Lowe, Jon Garland is the most reliable guy out there.

Pretty scary, no?

Good Morning Mets Fans!

And a great morning it is for the embattled Mets, who had lost their previous 5 games in a row.

Nick Evans and Claudio Vargas were the two big surprises of the day, each with a compelling story that lifted the spirits of a team admittedly in trouble.

In addition, Carlos Delgado and David Wright hit homeruns, and Carlos Beltran had 3 RBIs.

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
N.Y. Mets (23-24) «	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9	12	0
Colorado (19-30)	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	1

W: C. Vargas (1-2) L: J. Francis (1-5) HR: NYM - D. Wright (9), C. Delgado (8) COL - M. Holliday (8)

Recap/Box

Let's start with Nick Evans, who helped the Mets in two ways. First, he stroked 3 doubles in 4 at bats, scoring once and driving in 2. That, my friends, is one hell of a debut. But more than that, he gave the team some joy, a reason to laugh, a different focus from the mental drag of individual and team slumps.

And Willie agreed, "Good way to have a debut. That's what you need. Young kid comes up, steps up and give us a little energy. He did a great, great, great job of coming in and picking us up, along with Vargas, who was outstanding, too. Get us off the schneid for a little while."

The Mets veterans also enjoyed the performance.

"First pitch he ever saw, and he hit a double," marveled veteran Carlos Delgado. "It's not that easy, I'll tell you that much."

The Mets seemed inspired from their initial outburst and piled on runs throughout the game. David Wright hit a solo shot in the 2nd inning and Carlos Delgado hit one in the 9th.

And on a day when the Mets needed Claudio Vargas to be very good, he was simply great.

Vargas went 7 innings and allowed only 2 earned runs....and did we mention that he did it on 3 days rest?

"I just tried to go deep in the ballgame," Vargas said, "I felt good. I know we've got a good team. I know we're going to win some ballgames. I think we're starting to see a lot of laughs on the faces in the dugouts."