Minaya: We are Still Focused on Pitching

As things heat up in the chase for Derek Lowe and Ollie Perez, Omar Minaya remains perhaps the busiest GM in baseball. This is his passion--he's a dealmaker, dealing with dealmakers.

Yesterday he spoke about Pedro Martinez and gave something of a "truthful non-answer" as reported in the NY Post.

"Pedro is one of the guys who is still under consideration, but right now, the way it is, we're dealing with some other guys," Minaya said. "Is he an option? He's in a pool, but that's where he falls right now.

"We're in a position, that with the guys that are out there, the guys we are looking at, if we add one of those guys on the list, we feel real good going into the year."

The always excellent Jon Heyman is reporting that "Lowe to the Braves has reached the 'serious discussion' phase."

How serious? 4 years and $60M. If true, that obviously takes the Mets out of the hunt. While disappointing for 2009, this could actually be in the Mets favor in 2010.

So now all eyes in Met Nation turn to Ollie Perez, Omar's #1 choice to begin with. His prime is now and, in my opinion, he actually seems like less of a risk than Lowe. At age 36, Lowe comes with a few warnings, not many, but a few. The majority of pitchers tend to decline quickly after age 36, and despite an outstanding 2008, Lowe is in the danger zone for a starting pitcher. He may have a $15M 2009, followed by a $10M 2010, $5M 2011, etc.

For example, Greg Maddux ERA at 36--2.62. In the following 4 years--3.96, 4.02, 4.24, 4.20.

Now many pitchers are excellent in those mid-to late 30s years, but there is a risk, and the Mets aren't willing to make it a $60M risk.

So who do I like of the remaining free agent starting pitchers?

1. Oliver Perez, SP: Very high on Ollie. Strikeout pitcher, hitting his prime, aces against the Phils lefty lineup, and wants the ball in tough spots. He's young, he's lefty, and he's nasty. He is now the Mets priority #1.
2. Derek Lowe, SP: Innings eater who throws ground balls. Seems like the perfect fit for this team, at this time. He's older, but has a great motion and body type for longevity. Seems likely to be a Brave.
3. Jon Garland, SP: Guaranteed to start 32+ games and throw 200 innings. Battler, pitches to contact, but gets the job done. Would slot well to the #4 in this rotation, or #5 behind Ollie, which would allow Tim Redding to claim his spot as our long man/6th starter.
4. Ben Sheets, SP: Has great stuff, but the injury worry is there. Surprising lack of interest in this excellent pitcher. Someone is going to get a relative bargain. GMs must have the goods on his injury situation, and it's probably ugly. Remember, Sheets had the 5th best ERA in the NL in 2008, and now no one wants him?
5. Randy Wolf, SP: I'm not a fan. Had a very nice 2008, but before that had four consecutive years of 18 starts or less.
6. Braden Looper, SP: Very intrigued by Looper. Threw 199 innings last year with a solid 4.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Not exactly a spring chicken at 34, but he would be a good 2-year signing. Past history with the team likely a factor in lack of interest.
7. Pedro Martinez, SP: Call me sentimental, call me crazy, call me an idiot--I want Pedro back for Spring Training fighting for a spot. My worry? We've heard a lot about his great frame of mind, his stamina, etc, but what we haven't heard is what is his fastball topping out at? It's probably not good, or we would know about it.

So that's where we stand. A lot of small shifts in the landscape, a few things settling down and moving toward deal territory, and a lot of speculation.

The best part? It will get even crazier as we march toward pitchers and catchers....there are so many guys out there still, and the real feeding frenzy hasn't even begun.

Warming to the Idea of Jon Garland

Mets need pitching, and there just aren't a lot of options.

If I were King, my priorities would be, in order:

Oliver Perez: 4 years at $52M
Derek Lowe: 3 years at $42M
Jon Garland: 3 years at $25M (incentives to $30M)
Braden Looper: 2 years at $14M

That's my rack and stack and what I think would get the deals done. Unfortunately, there just aren't many quality FA starting pitchers out there this year.

You know why I only like those 4?

Innings--all four of these starters go out and put up at or near 200 innings year after year.

The rest of the FA list is all over the place--very up and down, with injury histories throughout.

The Mets should spend money smartly on someone who will be able to take the mound every 5th day...we were burned by Pedro, sadly, and it just puts a huge amount of pressure on a team when you have starters go down for any length of time. We see this all over baseball--Mark Prior, Carl Pavano and on and on and on. Losing a starting pitcher is one of the most damaging things that can happen to a team in the pennant hunt.

People mock inning counts, but to me it is one of the best measuring sticks for a starting pitcher.

A starting pitcher who goes 200 innings year after year after year is a very, very valuable resource--it takes pressure off the bullpen, takes pressure off of the other starters, and it keeps the team grinding throughout the long season by not disrupting flow and momentum.

How many times last year did the Mets go into panic mode because yet another unknown entity was taking the hill in a key game? How much pressure did it put on middle relief, and then the domino affect into the closers and even the offense?

So yes Mets fans, I'm warming to the idea of Jon Garland, much to the chagrin of several of my fellow bloggers.

Sure, he was semi-bad last year on a good team, but let's go back to his 2007 splits:

RH: .281 BA, .315 OBP, .426 Slg
LH: .259 BA, .321 OBP, .401 Slg

That's pretty good....and yes, he threw 208.3 innings with a 112 ERA+ in 2007.

And again, going back to my requirement for an innings-eater, he certainly fits the bill.

Over the last 7 years, he has started 33 games twice, and 32 games 5 times. During that stretch, his innings counts were:

193 IP
192 IP
217 IP
221 IP
211 IP
208 IP
197 IP

Let's bottom line this: 10.5% of all Mets starts last year (17 to be exact) came from Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas.

The Mets must make a reliable innings-eating starter a priority. If not Derek Lowe, Jon Garland is the most reliable guy out there.

Pretty scary, no?