Minaya: We are Still Focused on Pitching

As things heat up in the chase for Derek Lowe and Ollie Perez, Omar Minaya remains perhaps the busiest GM in baseball. This is his passion--he's a dealmaker, dealing with dealmakers.

Yesterday he spoke about Pedro Martinez and gave something of a "truthful non-answer" as reported in the NY Post.

"Pedro is one of the guys who is still under consideration, but right now, the way it is, we're dealing with some other guys," Minaya said. "Is he an option? He's in a pool, but that's where he falls right now.

"We're in a position, that with the guys that are out there, the guys we are looking at, if we add one of those guys on the list, we feel real good going into the year."

The always excellent Jon Heyman is reporting that "Lowe to the Braves has reached the 'serious discussion' phase."

How serious? 4 years and $60M. If true, that obviously takes the Mets out of the hunt. While disappointing for 2009, this could actually be in the Mets favor in 2010.

So now all eyes in Met Nation turn to Ollie Perez, Omar's #1 choice to begin with. His prime is now and, in my opinion, he actually seems like less of a risk than Lowe. At age 36, Lowe comes with a few warnings, not many, but a few. The majority of pitchers tend to decline quickly after age 36, and despite an outstanding 2008, Lowe is in the danger zone for a starting pitcher. He may have a $15M 2009, followed by a $10M 2010, $5M 2011, etc.

For example, Greg Maddux ERA at 36--2.62. In the following 4 years--3.96, 4.02, 4.24, 4.20.

Now many pitchers are excellent in those mid-to late 30s years, but there is a risk, and the Mets aren't willing to make it a $60M risk.

So who do I like of the remaining free agent starting pitchers?

1. Oliver Perez, SP: Very high on Ollie. Strikeout pitcher, hitting his prime, aces against the Phils lefty lineup, and wants the ball in tough spots. He's young, he's lefty, and he's nasty. He is now the Mets priority #1.
2. Derek Lowe, SP: Innings eater who throws ground balls. Seems like the perfect fit for this team, at this time. He's older, but has a great motion and body type for longevity. Seems likely to be a Brave.
3. Jon Garland, SP: Guaranteed to start 32+ games and throw 200 innings. Battler, pitches to contact, but gets the job done. Would slot well to the #4 in this rotation, or #5 behind Ollie, which would allow Tim Redding to claim his spot as our long man/6th starter.
4. Ben Sheets, SP: Has great stuff, but the injury worry is there. Surprising lack of interest in this excellent pitcher. Someone is going to get a relative bargain. GMs must have the goods on his injury situation, and it's probably ugly. Remember, Sheets had the 5th best ERA in the NL in 2008, and now no one wants him?
5. Randy Wolf, SP: I'm not a fan. Had a very nice 2008, but before that had four consecutive years of 18 starts or less.
6. Braden Looper, SP: Very intrigued by Looper. Threw 199 innings last year with a solid 4.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Not exactly a spring chicken at 34, but he would be a good 2-year signing. Past history with the team likely a factor in lack of interest.
7. Pedro Martinez, SP: Call me sentimental, call me crazy, call me an idiot--I want Pedro back for Spring Training fighting for a spot. My worry? We've heard a lot about his great frame of mind, his stamina, etc, but what we haven't heard is what is his fastball topping out at? It's probably not good, or we would know about it.

So that's where we stand. A lot of small shifts in the landscape, a few things settling down and moving toward deal territory, and a lot of speculation.

The best part? It will get even crazier as we march toward pitchers and catchers....there are so many guys out there still, and the real feeding frenzy hasn't even begun.

Beginning the Love-Hate Relationship with Redding

Since we're now officially into Day 2 of the Tim Redding era with the NY Mets, let's start our love-hate relationship with him on the right foot.

Reasons to love him:

• Zero chance you'll have to buy your kid a Tim Redding jersey...he is saving you money
  
• He is a New Yorker. Tim Redding was born and raised in Rochester
• One of his kids is named Shea
• Has four pitches: change, curve, fastball, slider
• 7-3, 3.85 ERA, .258 BAA before the all-star break
• 182 innings last year, and the Mets need innings
• Relatively inexpensive, could shift to the bullpen as a long man
• 176 innings with a 119 ERA+ in 2003
• Doesn't walk a lot of batters
• 3-1, 3.41 ERA vs Phils in 2008
• First athlete to have his jersey retired by Monroe Community College

Reasons to hate him:

• He pitched for the Yankees
• Has four pitches--all of them are average
• 3-8, 6.82 ERA, .303 BAA after the all-star break
• He wasn't good enough to make the Washington Nationals out of spring training in 2007
• 0-6 with a 10.57 ERA in 2005
• Gives up a staggering amount of HRs (13 in his last 51 innings)
• Pitched 7 or more innings twice in 32 starts in 2008
• 1-4, 7.76 ERA vs Marlins in 2008
• Not really a bargain at $2.25M with incentives

So all in all we have a few more reasons to love Tim Redding than to hate him.

Sure he's no Pedro, he's not really good, he's never had a plus pitch, or pitched in the postseason, but he's a Met....sort of.

So let's bottom line this thing:

The Mets are not winning a championship trotting Tim Redding out there every 5th day. We have a pretty big sample size out of him in 7 big league seasons, and the vast majority of his career, including the second half of 2008, has been marginal to awful (and I'm being kind), but he could help...at least Omar thinks so.

My hope? That he loses the 5th starter spot, but still helps the team...Omar Minaya has stated that he plans on having 7-8 candidates for the 5 starting spots and he wants it to be a competition.

Given that Redding pretty much has a roster spot guaranteed at that money, he could surprise us as the long man/spot starter....that's the hope anyway.

Don't you wish you had your jersey retired from Monroe Community College?

I need coffee....Tim Redding is a Met....holy crap......Love, Hate.....

Are You in the Pedro or Redding Camp?

It's been a fun off-season to be a Mets fan.

First we had the KRod signing--quick, to the point, Mets get their man, fair contract, etc. Good times.

Then, on December 10th, Omar came off the top rope and put together a trade that netted JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed. Yes we lost Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas and Endy Chavez, but overall it was a brilliant move.

Mets fans will love Sean Green....trust me on this.

Lately all us blogger types have been vacillating on which free agent starting pitchers the Mets will (or won't) sign, what the contracts will (or won't) be, which teams are (or aren't) involved, and more.

While that's all well and good, let's take a look at a "potential" 5th starter and see where the two stack up. Both men have their fans and their detractors, so the conversation, I hope, will center around past performance as a measure of potential in 2009.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Martinez #45 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
5.61	5-6	87	1.57

Full Name Pedro Jaime Martinez Birth Date October 25, 1971 Birth Place Manoguayabo, Dominican Republic Weight 193 lbs.

Height 5-11 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 16 years

College Ohio Dominican Salary 2008: $11,813,351

Tim Redding #17 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
4.95	10-11	120	1.43

Full Name Timothy James Redding Birth Date February 12, 1978 Birth Place Rochester, NY Weight 218 lbs.

Height 6-0 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 6 years

Drafted 20th round draft pick Salary 2008: $1,000,000

OK, this doesn't tell us much--we know Pedro had a rough 2008--injuries, death of his father, came back from rehab, not much pop on his fastball.

Redding had the second best year of his career. He pitched a solid 182 innings and was something of a workhorse for a terrible Nationals team.

Let's dive a bit deeper in the stats.

Pedro:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
As Starter	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	432	70	127	25	1	19	64	44	6	87	15	2	.294	.359	.488	.847
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.00	1	3	0	0	8	8	0	45.0	41	27	25	5	22	33	.244
Away	6.05	4	3	0	0	12	12	0	64.0	86	43	43	14	22	54	.326
Day	4.07	2	1	0	0	6	6	0	31.0	34	15	14	1	10	19	.283
Night	6.23	3	5	0	0	14	14	0	78.0	93	55	54	18	34	68	.298
Grass	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	230	44	70	13	0	11	39	23	3	42	7	0	.304	.366	.504	.871
vs. Right	202	26	57	12	1	8	25	21	3	45	8	2	.282	.351	.470	.821
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
July	4.40	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	14.1	13	7	7	4	7	13	.232
April	10.80	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3.1	4	4	4	2	1	1	.308
June	6.67	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	27.0	38	21	20	2	10	20	.330
August	3.83	2	1	0	0	7	7	0	42.1	41	19	18	9	14	33	.263
September	7.77	0	3	0	0	4	4	0	22.0	31	19	19	2	12	20	.337
Pre-All Star	6.25	3	2	0	0	9	9	0	44.2	55	32	31	8	18	34	.299
Post-All Star	5.18	2	4	0	0	11	11	0	64.1	72	38	37	11	26	53	.290

Redding:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
As Starter	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	709	110	195	40	1	27	93	65	7	120	13	7	.275	.338	.449	.786
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.61	6	7	0	0	18	18	0	94.2	117	67	59	15	30	55	.305
Away	4.23	4	4	0	0	15	15	1	87.1	78	43	41	12	35	65	.240
Day	3.44	3	1	0	0	6	6	1	36.2	36	15	14	3	9	25	.261
Night	5.33	7	10	0	0	27	27	0	145.1	159	95	86	24	56	95	.278
Grass	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	358	54	99	25	1	13	47	38	2	54	8	3	.277	.346	.461	.807
vs. Right	351	56	96	15	0	14	46	27	5	66	5	4	.274	.329	.436	.765
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	3.55	3	2	0	0	6	6	0	33.0	25	19	13	4	14	22	.203
May	3.86	3	1	0	0	6	6	0	35.0	33	16	15	4	14	22	.250
June	5.19	0	0	0	0	6	6	0	34.2	42	21	20	5	9	21	.296
July	4.82	1	3	0	0	5	5	1	28.0	38	15	15	1	5	19	.339
August	5.46	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	28.0	31	17	17	8	11	19	.277
September	7.71	1	3	0	0	5	5	0	23.1	26	22	20	5	12	17	.295
Post-All Star	6.82	3	8	0	0	13	13	1	67.1	80	53	51	14	27	45	.303
Pre-All Star	3.85	7	3	0	0	20	20	0	114.2	115	57	49	13	38	75	.258

Hmmmm, several flags for both.

Redding had a solid start to his season: 3.85 ERA, .257 BAA, 6-3 in April and May. But look at the rest of the season--he reverted back to "Redding normal", which is a pitcher who has trouble getting out of his own way.

ERA in the last 4 months of the season: 5.19, 4.82, 5.46, 7.71. That is awful. He finished the year with a pitiful 89 ERA+, which is one point higher than his career ERA+. How about 13 HRs allowed in his last 51 innings pitched? Flag!

And what of Pedro? We all saw his fastball topping out between 87 and 89 mph, with the very occassional low 90s on the gun. His pitches were up, he didn't have the same control, and his motion looked different.

The number aren't pretty either. 7.77 ERA in September when the team needed him most, a .326 BAA on the road, etc.

So play GM--which man would you prefer if it comes down to one of them for the 5th spot?

My money is still on Pedro--I've just never been a fan of Redding, and he was awful last year after May. Pedro actually had a very good August, and I believe that is the pitcher he is capable of being in 2009.

If Redding decides to take the Mets offer, and we haven't heard the details, hopefully Pedro will come to camp and fight.

Pedro wants to be a Met, and as this excellent article in the NY Post points out, he has some unfinished business.

At the end of the day I still trust Pedro a heck of a lot more than Tim Redding.

Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and the $150M Budget

Walk with me for a minute Mets fans.

First, let's take a stroll through Citi Field. My apologies for the weather.

Look at the fences...look at the dimensions...look at the beautiful architecture.

Is this a dream? Are Mets fans really deserving of all this largess?

Now close your eyes for a moment....think of the warm Florida breezes in February and March. Think about the hiss of the fastball and the popping of the glove. The crack as bat meets ball. The infield and dugout chatter. Now picture opening day and a beautiful 2009 in this new cathedral in Queens.

They are the sweet sounds and smells of baseball.

Now think about a Mets starting rotation of:

Johan Santana
Derek Lowe
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey

How truly wonderful would that be? Could it be a reality? If so, what would it take? Think about that rotation, together, for the next 3+ years.

Can the Mets afford to add another $25M to the payroll? Didn't they have a ton of money come off the books from the $138M they spent last year?

Haven't they lost the services of Pedro Martinez and his $12M a year? Moises Alou at $7.5M a year? El Duque at $7M a year? Jorge Sosa and his $2M a year? Scott Schoeneweis and his $3.6M a year?

Sure they locked down KRod and JJ Putz, and that cost $18M a year, but is there not room for more?

Was $138M last year really the most the Mets will spend?

If you could have those 5 starters--3 power pitchers, 3 righty's and 2 lefty's, a wonderful mix of youth and prime, fastballs, slider, curveballs, changeups and sinkers, locked up for 3+ years, would you do it? Could you do it? Should you do it?

The answer is yes, and the possibility is more real than the papers would have you believe.

Boras Bingo, Derek Lowe and the Mets

One thing is clear about Scott Boras: nothing's changed.

For those that saw Omar Minaya interviewed on the new MLB Network, it's clear that he is in deep thought about his starting pitching options and the weak free agent crop.

This much is known: Derek Lowe is his #1 target, Omar and the Mets have a price in mind, and Scott Boras has quite another price in mind for his client.

To date the Mets have offerred $36M over 3 years. Boras wants $16M a year, for at least 4 years, for his client and "claims" to have several teams interested in that price point.

I say, "Bullshit".

MLB market reality points to a scenario in which Derek Lowe might get $14M a year for 4 years, but at his age the 4th year is quite the sticking point with basically all of the remaining clubs that have shown an interest for his services.

In this morning's NY Daily News, the headline blares, "Mets may miss out on Lowe!" It's as if the club most likely to sign the starter is suddenly out of the running because Boras is doing his job in trying to maximize the contract for his client.

The facts say otherwise.

1. This is a business, and businessmen are doing the negotiating.
2. The sides aren't as far apart as it seems.
3. Both Boras and the Mets are being patient, as they should.

If Boras, as he claims, truly had an offer close to what he's seeking for Lowe, he'd have already jumped at it. The Phils, a team Boras has leaked as a likely suitor, simply don't need Lowe for that money. They have 4 great starters locked up and a slew of arms competing for the 5th spot.

The Mets will land Lowe, of that I'm certain. It will just take a bit more time, a bit more Boras Bingo, and a bit more money.

3 years at $42M guaranteed and a club option 4th year for $16M is the most likely scenario.

It's just a matter of time.

Warming to the Idea of Jon Garland

Mets need pitching, and there just aren't a lot of options.

If I were King, my priorities would be, in order:

Oliver Perez: 4 years at $52M
Derek Lowe: 3 years at $42M
Jon Garland: 3 years at $25M (incentives to $30M)
Braden Looper: 2 years at $14M

That's my rack and stack and what I think would get the deals done. Unfortunately, there just aren't many quality FA starting pitchers out there this year.

You know why I only like those 4?

Innings--all four of these starters go out and put up at or near 200 innings year after year.

The rest of the FA list is all over the place--very up and down, with injury histories throughout.

The Mets should spend money smartly on someone who will be able to take the mound every 5th day...we were burned by Pedro, sadly, and it just puts a huge amount of pressure on a team when you have starters go down for any length of time. We see this all over baseball--Mark Prior, Carl Pavano and on and on and on. Losing a starting pitcher is one of the most damaging things that can happen to a team in the pennant hunt.

People mock inning counts, but to me it is one of the best measuring sticks for a starting pitcher.

A starting pitcher who goes 200 innings year after year after year is a very, very valuable resource--it takes pressure off the bullpen, takes pressure off of the other starters, and it keeps the team grinding throughout the long season by not disrupting flow and momentum.

How many times last year did the Mets go into panic mode because yet another unknown entity was taking the hill in a key game? How much pressure did it put on middle relief, and then the domino affect into the closers and even the offense?

So yes Mets fans, I'm warming to the idea of Jon Garland, much to the chagrin of several of my fellow bloggers.

Sure, he was semi-bad last year on a good team, but let's go back to his 2007 splits:

RH: .281 BA, .315 OBP, .426 Slg
LH: .259 BA, .321 OBP, .401 Slg

That's pretty good....and yes, he threw 208.3 innings with a 112 ERA+ in 2007.

And again, going back to my requirement for an innings-eater, he certainly fits the bill.

Over the last 7 years, he has started 33 games twice, and 32 games 5 times. During that stretch, his innings counts were:

193 IP
192 IP
217 IP
221 IP
211 IP
208 IP
197 IP

Let's bottom line this: 10.5% of all Mets starts last year (17 to be exact) came from Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas.

The Mets must make a reliable innings-eating starter a priority. If not Derek Lowe, Jon Garland is the most reliable guy out there.

Pretty scary, no?