Dodgers and Manny at a Standstill

It's interesting to see the Manny and Dodger dynamic play out.

At what point will one side blink?

What is the real number that Manny will sign for?

How do you value him?

Let's state the obvious up front--Manny had a great 2008:

2008 Season Stats
SPLITS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Season	153	552	102	183	36	1	37	121	87	124	3	0	.332	.430	.601	1.031

BUT (there is always a but), in 2006 and 2007 he only played in 130 and 133 games, with a total of 55 HRs and 190 RBIs for those two seasons. His .881 OPS in 2007 is "good", but it sure isn't $20M+ good, and his latest trending 2006-2008 stats, not including his great 53 games with the Dodgers, doesn't approach $25M a year in value.

He also turns 37 in May--flag.

So in essence, there is a cognitive dissonance with Manny--fact vs fantasy.

Manny and Boras want to be paid for 2008 productivity, and GMs want to pay Manny for 2006-2008 productivity.

Our friends at FanGraphs put Manny's 2007 value at $5.0M a year, and his 2008 at $28.3M a year. Camp Manny wants him paid for 2008, but GMs are far smarter than they were a few years ago (not including Brian Cashman), and they know Manny is just not worth $25M a year, even for 1 year, hence ths standstill.

Tim Brown at Yahoo reports the following:

Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti went a second day without talking to the agent for Manny Ramirez.

In a Friday night conference call arranged to announce the signing of left-hander Randy Wolf, questions ran about two to one in favor of Ramirez.

Colletti said he hadn’t spoken to Scott Boras since Wednesday and had no negotiations scheduled, now three days since Ramirez rejected a one-year, $25 million contract offer from the Dodgers.

“At some point in time we will come to a conclusion,” Colletti said. “We’re not there yet.”

Asked if the club would continue a dialogue beyond the day position players were due to arrive in camp, which for the Dodgers is Feb. 18, Colletti declined to answer.

“I’d be putting a deadline on it if I answered that question,” he said.

So how do the Mets fit in, or do they? There was some chatter last night from Tony Paige that the Mets are still a player in the Manny sweepstakes.

While the door may not be 100% shut, it's close. Unless Boras comes to the Mets with something right at $20M a season or less, there is zero chance he comes to Queens.

The Votes are in: Sheets by a Landslide

In our latest NY Sports Dog poll, we asked:

"If You were Omar...."

There were four choices:

• Oliver Perez for 4/$40M'ish
• Ben Sheets for 2/$20M'ish
• Look at an Alternate FA starter
• Stand Pat

155 of you voted, and Ben Sheets for 2/$20M'ish received 61% of the total votes, while Ollie for 4/$40M'ish received only 36% of the vote.

Seems as if you savvy armchair GMs see great value in Ben Sheets.....truth be told, I do as well.

Thanks to everyone that participated. Our new poll will be up shortly.

Minaya: We are Still Focused on Pitching

As things heat up in the chase for Derek Lowe and Ollie Perez, Omar Minaya remains perhaps the busiest GM in baseball. This is his passion--he's a dealmaker, dealing with dealmakers.

Yesterday he spoke about Pedro Martinez and gave something of a "truthful non-answer" as reported in the NY Post.

"Pedro is one of the guys who is still under consideration, but right now, the way it is, we're dealing with some other guys," Minaya said. "Is he an option? He's in a pool, but that's where he falls right now.

"We're in a position, that with the guys that are out there, the guys we are looking at, if we add one of those guys on the list, we feel real good going into the year."

The always excellent Jon Heyman is reporting that "Lowe to the Braves has reached the 'serious discussion' phase."

How serious? 4 years and $60M. If true, that obviously takes the Mets out of the hunt. While disappointing for 2009, this could actually be in the Mets favor in 2010.

So now all eyes in Met Nation turn to Ollie Perez, Omar's #1 choice to begin with. His prime is now and, in my opinion, he actually seems like less of a risk than Lowe. At age 36, Lowe comes with a few warnings, not many, but a few. The majority of pitchers tend to decline quickly after age 36, and despite an outstanding 2008, Lowe is in the danger zone for a starting pitcher. He may have a $15M 2009, followed by a $10M 2010, $5M 2011, etc.

For example, Greg Maddux ERA at 36--2.62. In the following 4 years--3.96, 4.02, 4.24, 4.20.

Now many pitchers are excellent in those mid-to late 30s years, but there is a risk, and the Mets aren't willing to make it a $60M risk.

So who do I like of the remaining free agent starting pitchers?

1. Oliver Perez, SP: Very high on Ollie. Strikeout pitcher, hitting his prime, aces against the Phils lefty lineup, and wants the ball in tough spots. He's young, he's lefty, and he's nasty. He is now the Mets priority #1.
2. Derek Lowe, SP: Innings eater who throws ground balls. Seems like the perfect fit for this team, at this time. He's older, but has a great motion and body type for longevity. Seems likely to be a Brave.
3. Jon Garland, SP: Guaranteed to start 32+ games and throw 200 innings. Battler, pitches to contact, but gets the job done. Would slot well to the #4 in this rotation, or #5 behind Ollie, which would allow Tim Redding to claim his spot as our long man/6th starter.
4. Ben Sheets, SP: Has great stuff, but the injury worry is there. Surprising lack of interest in this excellent pitcher. Someone is going to get a relative bargain. GMs must have the goods on his injury situation, and it's probably ugly. Remember, Sheets had the 5th best ERA in the NL in 2008, and now no one wants him?
5. Randy Wolf, SP: I'm not a fan. Had a very nice 2008, but before that had four consecutive years of 18 starts or less.
6. Braden Looper, SP: Very intrigued by Looper. Threw 199 innings last year with a solid 4.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Not exactly a spring chicken at 34, but he would be a good 2-year signing. Past history with the team likely a factor in lack of interest.
7. Pedro Martinez, SP: Call me sentimental, call me crazy, call me an idiot--I want Pedro back for Spring Training fighting for a spot. My worry? We've heard a lot about his great frame of mind, his stamina, etc, but what we haven't heard is what is his fastball topping out at? It's probably not good, or we would know about it.

So that's where we stand. A lot of small shifts in the landscape, a few things settling down and moving toward deal territory, and a lot of speculation.

The best part? It will get even crazier as we march toward pitchers and catchers....there are so many guys out there still, and the real feeding frenzy hasn't even begun.