The Myth of Mike Pelfrey's Sinker

From my friend and NY Sports Dog Contributor Andy the Lawyer...

Mike Pelfrey had his most effective outing of the spring today, pitching 4 innings and giving up 4 hits and no runs. Notably, however, his groundout to flyout ratio was 3-7, meaning that he really wasn't inducing groundball outs. For several years, the Mets pitching coaches have talked about Pelfrey as though he could be a poor-man's Brandon Webb, inducing groundouts and doubleplays and being effective despite not having great strikeout numbers. But is that really who Mike Pelfrey is?

His numbers do not suggest that he's really a sinkerball pitcher. While his ratios are slightly more groundball oriented than the average major leaguer, they are nowhere near what you see in guys who can "pitch to contact" and induce a lot of ground ball outs. For comparison's sake, here are Mike Pelfrey's career ratio numbers (Groundball/Flyballs and Groundouts/Airouts) compared to Brandon Webb (probably the most prominent sinkerball pitcher in the game), Derek Lowe (a very good front rotation sinkerball pitcher), Aaron Cook (a decent sinkerballer), and the league average:

Pelfrey (career)
GB/FB 1.01 GO/AO 1.43

Webb (career)
GB/FB 1.82 GO/AO 2.91

Lowe (career)
GB/FB 1.69 GO/AO 2.69

Aaron Cook (career)
GB/FB 1.36 GO/AO 2.21

League Average
GB/FB 0.78 GO/AO 1.06

Pelfrey's number aren't terrible, but they are hardly indicative of a guy who can make a living pitching to contact. Pelfrey is only about 20% more likely to induce a ground ball than the average MLB pitcher. That's not a true "sinkerballer" - at least its not a portrait of a guy who can not strike anyone out but still be effective.

Maybe Pelfrey can improve in this regard, but I just don't see it. The real sinkerballers almost have a downward break on their ball - not quite a splitter movement but something close to it. Pelfrey's fastball is straight - it has a slight downward movement because he's tall, but hardly enough that it prevents batters from putting it in the air.

If Pelfrey is going to be a front of the rotation starter, he is going to need to improve his K rates and lower his walks - in short, get an "out pitch" (perhaps his new splitter will be that pitch) and improve his control. It is NOT going to be because he pitches to contact, as its very unlikely that we will see a major jump in his groundball/flyball ratios. Maybe he is doing that this spring - he notably issued no walks and struck out two in his 4 innings of work today. Certainly the Mets rotation needs him to be a #2 or #3 starter to make a playoff run this season.

Chris Carter Goes Deep Again

Chris Carter just took Derek Lowe deep....very deep....it's his third straight homer in his last three at-bats.

He's now hitting over .600 and making an enormous statement.

I really hope Carter makes the club...he's earned his shot with a terrific college career, and 6 very good minor league seasons.

UPDATE: Carter just doubled and now has 4 RBIs today.

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• 10 Things to Know About Chris Carter (ballhype.com)

Mets 10 Hit Inning: How They Did It

The Mets record breaking inning yesterday was a thing of beauty.

Players up and down the lineup contributed--well, with the exception of baseball's worst hitting first baseman, Daniel Murphy.

Here is how they did it:

Mets 4th
Derek Lowe pitching:
Angel Pagan:	Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Pagan reached on an infield single.
Luis Castillo:	Ball, Pickoff attempt, Strike looking, Ball, Castillo singled to right, Pagan to third.
Gary Sheffield:	Sheffield doubled to deep right, Pagan and Castillo scored.
Daniel Murphy:	Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Foul, Foul, Murphy grounded out to second, Sheffield to third.
Jeff Francoeur:	Ball, Ball, Francoeur doubled to center, Sheffield scored.
Fernando Tatis:	Strike looking, Tatis singled to left center, Francoeur scored.
Omir Santos:	Strike looking, Pickoff attempt, Santos singled to center, Tatis to third.
Anderson Hernandez:	Foul, Ball, Strike looking, Foul, Hernandez singled to right, Tatis scored, Santos to second.
Oliver Perez:	Bunt foul, Ball, Bunt foul, Perez singled to right, Santos to third, Hernandez to second.
Angel Pagan:	Foul, Ball, Pagan reached on fielder's choice to second, Santos scored, Hernandez to third, Perez out at second.
Luis Castillo:	Pickoff attempt to first, Ball, Pagan stole second, Strike looking, Ball, Castillo singled to right, Hernandez and Pagan scored.
Kris Medlen relieved Derek Lowe.
Gary Sheffield:	Ball, Pickoff attempt, Sheffield doubled to left, Castillo to third.
Daniel Murphy:	Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Ball, Murphy struck out swinging.
End of Inning (8 Runs, 10 Hits, 0 Errors)

Good Morning Mets Fans!

Luck be a lady tonight......

7 wins in a row, a resurgent starting pitching staff, solid bullpen work, strong defense and enough offense to beat anyone.

It's a formula for success.

Yesterday the Mets completed their third consecutive sweep by beating the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-4 in front of 38,871 fans on a beautiful Mother's Day.

Several players swung pink bats, and there were other signs of pink all over the park, including Ian Snell's cheeks.

Livan Hernandez pitched 6 solid innings en route to his 3rd victory of the year.

He wasn't quite as sharp as his last start, but he was sharp enough and allowed only two runs and seven hits for his 150th career win.

It must be contagious because every Mets starter has gone at least six innings during this winning streak, and they're a combined 6-0 with a 2.26 ERA.

"We're playing good baseball, especially our starting pitching -- to go six, seven innings gives our bullpen a rest," said Wright, who's hitting .356 over his last 12 games. "We feel pretty comfortable when we put up a couple crooked numbers we're going to win the game."

Katie Straing at Newsday has more on Livan:

"It was a tough day," Hernandez said. "but I got a win and more importantly, the team got a win."

Although Hernandez didn't have success with all his pitches, he adapted well. Because of the wind, Hernandez said he scrapped his sinker early and opted to use his cutter instead.

"When the sinker doesn't work, you've got to call up your Plan B," Hernandez said. "That was my Plan B today and I struck out three or four people with that."

Carlos Beltran praised his ability to react and push through to give the team six solid innings.

"He didn't have his best stuff out there, but he was able to keep them off-balance," Beltran said. "The key of this winning streak has been our starting pitching."

After the game, Hernandez discussed the rotation's struggles at the beginning of the season and said he did not want the current winning streak to end with him.

"Every time you go on the mound, when you've won six in a row, you don't want to lose a game," Hernandez said. "You want to continue to win to see how many more are coming."

Ben Shipgel from the NY Times has an excellent piece on the starters helping the bullpen.

The offense chipped in too.

Carlos Beltran had another big late inning hit--a hit that would have been a homerun in 90% of major lesgue parks.

Omir Santos also had two hits, as did the suddenly red hot Jose Reyes.

For those that don't know, Omir Santos is actually the product of some Mets mad scientists.

Omir Santos is here to stay...it's just a question of what will the Mets do when they have three healthy catchers? My guess is they trade Castro.

So now the Braves come into town for what is very much a marquee pitching matchup tonight--Johan Santana vs Derek Lowe.

Does it get any better than this?

Enjoy your coffee!

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh (12-19)	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	11	1
N.Y. Mets (17-13) «	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	4	x	8	11	0

Players of the Game

New York O. Santos AB 4 R 1 H 2 HR 0 RBI 2

New York Mets
Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Jose Reyes, SS	4	1	2	1	1	0	1	.276
Luis Castillo, 2B	4	0	2	2	0	0	2	.333
Carlos Beltran, CF	4	0	1	2	1	1	2	.374
Carlos Delgado, 1B	4	1	1	0	0	1	5	.298
Sean Green, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
David Wright, 3B	4	1	1	1	0	2	4	.304
Daniel Murphy, LF	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	.298
Jeremy Reed, LF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.286
Omir Santos, C	4	1	2	2	0	2	1	.300
Ryan Church, RF	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	.264
Livan Hernandez, P	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	.111
Pedro Feliciano, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
a- Gary Sheffield, PH	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.186
J.J. Putz, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
b- Fernando Tatis, PH-1B	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.341
Totals	34	8	11	8	3	7
a-grounded out for Feliciano in the 7th
b-hit by pitch for Putz in the 8th
Batting
2B - Jose Reyes (3, Snell), Carlos Beltran (6, Grabow), Carlos Delgado (7, Snell)
SF - Luis Castillo (1)
RBI - Jose Reyes (13), Luis Castillo 2 (9), Carlos Beltran 2 (24), David Wright (18), Omir Santos 2 (8)
2-OUT RBI - Carlos Beltran 2 (8)
SB - Jose Reyes (10, 3rd base off Burnett/Diaz), Luis Castillo 2 (4, 2nd base off Snell/Diaz, 2nd base off Burnett/Diaz), David Wright (5, 2nd base off Snell/Diaz)
Team LOB - 8

New York Mets
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Livan Hernandez (W,3-1)	6	7	2	2	4	5	0	5.08
Pedro Feliciano (H,5)	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	3.46
J.J. Putz (H,8)	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	3.50
Sean Green	1	1	2	2	1	0	1	9.00
Pitches-Strikes - Livan Hernandez 103-58, Pedro Feliciano 14-8, J.J. Putz 20-15, Sean Green 25-12
Ground Balls-Fly Balls - Livan Hernandez 7-5, Pedro Feliciano 1-1, Sean Green 1-2
Batters Faced - Livan Hernandez 28, Pedro Feliciano 4, J.J. Putz 5, Sean Green 5

Mets 2009: Reasons for Concern?

My good friend Andy the Lawyer presents some excellent points---as he told me, "I am by no means an alarmist, but there have been a few early alarm bells."

I heard a very good interview with Jayson Stark from ESPN about a week ago, where he delineated the difference between what is "too early" to worry about in April of the baseball season, and what is worth worrying about. In general, he said, its silly to worry in April when very unlikely things happen. For example, Yankee fans shouldn't worry when C.C. Sabathia gets rocked in his first start, as you have to expect he will bounce back. On the other hand, if you came into April worried about your team's bullpen, and then the bullpen impodes through the first month, then its not too early to be concerned. With that guiding principle in mind, and in light of the positives I posted about last time, here are some areas for concern with the 2009 Mets:

1) The Defense Has Been Bad

One of the things that troubled me about the Mets decision to NOT give Murphy a shot at second base was the illogical, in my mind, view that his defensive liabilities at second base would be MORE impactful than his likely struggles in left field. Personally, it seemed to me that as a former third baseman, the main issue for Murphy would be turning the doubleplay - he wasn't likely to have issues with throws, and range at second base is more than a tad overrated in importance in my opinion. In contrast, we knew based on last year that Murphy had trouble picking up balls in left field, and it seemed unlikely that those would disappear over one offseason of fall league baseball. At the end of the day, the decision to not try Murphy at second base (a new position) and instead force him to play left field (a new position) seems more related to the Mets inability, or unwillingness, to deal Luis Castillo and thus free up second base.

Thus far, Murphy has made several catastrophic misplays in left field. While not all count as errors in the boxscore, they are important nonetheless. Its not an exaggeration to say that inexcusable defensive miscues by Murphy have cost the Mets two games already - pretty bad considering the Mets have only played 13 games. His drop of a pop-up fly cost Santana a win, and his miscue of a line drive right at him last night led to two runs being scored. Simply put, its hard to imagine that his defense at second could have cost us more than his defense in left already has. And its unclear how much better he is going to get. If an offseason of outfield practice didn't get him ready, is he going to improve this season? And if not, will it start to affect his offense? While Murphy is a very nice offensive player, its hard to argue that his value over a replacement remains clear if he's making a defensive miscue every 3-5 games.

Its also worth pointing out that the Mets overall defense hasn't been elite for several years now. Its been a long time since the Mets had one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Aside from Beltran in CF, Reyes and SS, and Wright at 3B, its hard to identify a single other Met who provides even above-average defense. I don't think its too early to worry about this - the Mets look like a sloppy defensive team, and there is little reason to think its a fluke.

2) Starting Pitching

Going into the season, Mets fans were probably more worried about the starting pitching than any other aspect of the team. After Santana (who looks like he's off to a Cy Young start) the rest of the Mets rotation all had question marks. Unfortunately, only one of those four question marks (Livian, of all people) appears to be answered positively thus far.

Ollie is being Ollie

Ollie Perez, notwithstanding his mulit-millionaire contract, looks every bit like the frustrating guy Mets fans have had a love-hate relationship over the last two years. He continues to create trouble for himself with inexcusable walks, periodic wildness, and terrible conditioning. Mets fans hoped that the new contract would mark an improvement in maturity for Perez, who now needs to act like a veteran pitcher rather than a promising young thrower with "stuff". Instead, we've actually seen regression thus far, almost suggesting that he has become complacent with his new contract.

Ollie has had 3 starts so far this year, and 2 have been terrible, so bad that he didn't even make it through 5 innings. While we all know that Ollie can turn it on at any time, you have to be worried about him given his up and down track record and history of immaturity.

Pelfrey's Workload

Pelfrey's Workload increased dramatically last year, far more than teams typically like to do with young pitchers, due to injury concerns. While Pelfrey came through great last year, if anything the pressure was greater on his this year, when he is clearly being anointed as the #2 pitcher behind Santana after the Mets failed to sign Derek Lowe. Unfortunately, Pelfrey had two relatively ineffective starts and then went on the DL. If he can't pitch 150+ innings this year at a high level (sub-4.00 ERA), the Mets will have a major problem on their hands.

Whither John Maine?

Maine remains an enigma to me, almost more confusing than Perez (whose immaturity and lack of discipline explain alot about his inconsistency). Maine seems to be dedicated, serious, wants to throw strieks, and has great stuff. But his results don't match up - often because it seems he doesn't know how to stretch the zone and get hitters to expand their swinging area. Its unclear why this is, but its disconcerting to see that a guy alot of people picked to win 15 games a year ago now seems to struggle getting through the 5th inning. Hopefully we get a good start out of Maine today that gives Mets fans some confidence.

Braves Sign Derek Lowe

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Braves signed Derek Lowe to a 4 year, $60M contract. Their info came from the Atlanta Journal Consitution story here.

Update from the NY Daily News:

The Mets have lost their top free agent pitching target to one of their division rivals – team officials were told Tuesday that Derek Lowe spurned the Mets to take the Atlanta Braves' four-year, $60-million offer.

The deal was first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on its Web site and said that the pact will be finalized after Lowe takes a physical Wednesday.

The Mets had made a three-year offer worth about $36 million to Lowe, which did not impress the pitcher and lately Met executives grew pessimistic about signing the righty, who spent the last four years with the Dodgers.

Still, the Mets believe there are attractive alternatives and now GM Omar Minaya will turn his attention to Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf. Pedro Martinez lurks on the outside as a fallback option if the Mets cannot sign Perez or Wolf. Ben Sheets, a talented injury-risk, is also on the free agent market.

Right now, the Mets have Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Tim Redding in their rotation. Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell are potential candidates, too, though there is some feeling in the organization that giving them more seasoning in the minors is the best route for their development.

The Braves lost John Smoltz this winter and finished second to the Yankees in their pursuit of A.J. Burnett. But they've revamped their rotation adding Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo round out Atlanta's starting five. Tim Hudson could return from elbow surgery in the second half.

The 35-year-old Lowe, a sinkerballer, is 126-107 in 12 seasons in the majors with the Mariners, Red Sox and Dodgers. He won each of the clinching post-season games in Boston's run to the 2004 World Series title.

Whispers: Did Derek Lowe's Past Hurt Him With the Mets?

File this one under "whispers", but there is a bit of chatter out there speculating that Derek Lowe's past, which includes a history of marital infidelity and problems with alcohol, may have hurt his chances with the Mets from the start.

In 2005, Derek Lowe walked out on his wife and their children...and he did it by phone.

In a widely reported story, Lowe's wife told of her heartbreak and the TV news reporter who was in the middle of the firestorm. A reporter who, at the time, just happened to cover the Dodgers.

Derek Lowe has abandoned his heartbroken wife and kids and moved in with a TV reporter who covers his new team, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

That's according to Trinka Lowe, Derek's wife of seven years and the mother of their three kids, who said her husband has left her for Fox Sports Net's Carolyn Hughes.

"This is definitely the worst time of my life,'' Trinka told the Track. ``I don't even know how to describe it. I still love him. He's still the father of our children. But I don't want this to be glamorized like some other relationships that didn't start out so well. I don't want this to be portrayed as `They were there for each other when his marriage fell apart.' That's not true. The marriage fell apart because of this other person.''

Trinka said she made FSN aware of the relationship and a representative promised to investigate. A spokesman for the network said yesterday that Hughes, who hosts the FSN pregame show, ``Dodgers Dugout,'' has been taken off the beat pending the outcome of that inquiry.

``As soon as we were made aware by Mrs. Lowe that a potential problem existed we removed Carolyn from covering the Dodgers,'' Lou D'Ermilio told us. ``At present we're investigating to determine whether a conflict of interest did exist and beyond that we can't comment on a personnel issue.''

Hughes did not return our calls. For that matter, neither did Lowe's agent, Scott Boras. And Dodgers spokesman John Olguin declined to comment on the mound man's marital mess.

``A player's home life is personal,'' he said, ``and as such the Dodgers will not comment.''

But Trinka, who still lives in Fort Myers, Fla., said she knew something was wrong with her marriage as soon as she returned to the Beverly Hills home she and Derek bought after he was signed by the Dodgers.

``I went out to L.A. when the kids finished school, just like I used to do every year when we were in Boston,'' Trinka said. ``But when I got there I felt like something was a little odd. Of course, I hadn't seen him in a while and it usually takes him a few days to adjust to me and the kids.

``Anyway, he left on a road trip and he called me from the road and said, `I'm not happy and I can't do this anymore.' It was right out of the blue. I said `Whatever the problems are let's work it out. I will do anything, let's go to counseling, we have these kids.' And he said, `I don't want to work it out. I'm through.' ''

Trinka, who was with Derek for 11 years, said her hubby's reluctance to try to repair the relationship made her think that ``there was someone else involved.''

"He told me he wanted me gone when he got back from the next road trip,'' she said.

Trinka said she told her husband that she was going to wait four days to leave because she had invited friends from Boston and her brother to visit.

"So when he got back from the trip he went and moved in with her,'' she said.

Trinka said she knows this because when Derek came over to see the kids, he was driving Hughes' car, and when he left, Trinka had him followed.

"He went to her house and spent the night there,'' she said. ``He's now living there.''

Trinka said she went to Hughes' Manhattan Beach apartment and confronted her but the sports reporter denied that there was anything improper going on. She insisted that she and Lowe were ``just friends,'' Trinka said.

``They deny the relationship. She told me Derek sleeps on her couch and that she does this for all her friends.''

But Trinka did some snooping and found Hughes' number in Derek's cell phone under the name ``Jeff.'' She said she also knows that her hubby chartered a private jet to take him and his galpal to the All-Star Game in Detroit. And if she needed any more proof, incriminating pictures of the pair appeared on an L.A.-based media critic's Web site earlier this week, pictures that Trinka insists she knows nothing about.

Additionally, Lowe is reported to be a big drinker, and the habit extends to night's before he pitches.

"He has a drinking problem,'' said Someone close to the ex-Sox hurler. ``And a lot of his problems come when he drinks. And he wouldn't deal with it and that's why the Red Sox wouldn't re-sign him.''

Rumors about Lowe's womanizing and drinking have been out there for years. At one point, he upset the Boston Red Sox owner John Henry by bringing a woman--not his wife--to a team function.

Lowe was told that the family-oriented Henry would be upset that he'd be so bold as to show up with a girlfriend,. But Lowe thought he knew better.

"He's a guy, he'll understand,'' Lowe said.

Apparently, he didn't. In the small baseball fraternity that is the major leagues, this type of behavior doesn't fly with everyone, and that may include the family-oriented Wilpons and Omar Minaya.

Ryan Church: A Full Season Projection

OK, it's Monday, the Giants lost, and I am pissed.

Today should be an interesting day with the Hall of Fame announcement at 1:30 live on MLB Network.

Jim Rice fans are on edge.

We're also likely to get another half dozen Derek Lowe and Ollie Perez insights, including a purported Braves offer to Derek Lowe.

As for me, I am going to look at Ryan Church's numbers over the last 2 seasons and project his 2009.

We'll look at his second half of 2007 (61 games) and first half of 2008 (57 games), then give him 525 at-bats.

This is the methodology, it's simple, it's just math, and there are no park factors, trends, regression, etc...again, it's just math.

Last Half 2007/First Half 2008:

209 AB, 25 R, 55 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 17 BB, 52 K, .293 BA, .354 OBP, .532 Slg, .886 OPS

205 AB, 40 R, 63 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 19 BB, 50 K, .307 BA, .370 OBP, .512 Slg, .882 OPS

Now let's combine those numbers.

414 AB, 65 R, 118 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 36 BB, 102 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS

Now let's look at those numbers over 525 at bats.

2009 Projection:

525 AB, 83 R, 150 H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 46 BB, 130 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS

OK, that was fairly unscientific, but I would wager that would be close to what we would expect out of Church over a full season.

In fact, if you look back at his 2006 campaign, a year in which he had 460 at-bats, those figures are pretty close. On a more positive note his 2007 September, followed by his first 2 months of 2008, was even better than these numbers suggest.

You know what else? I'll take it.

Mark it down now: Ryan Church wins Comeback Player of the Year.

Are You in the Pedro or Redding Camp?

It's been a fun off-season to be a Mets fan.

First we had the KRod signing--quick, to the point, Mets get their man, fair contract, etc. Good times.

Then, on December 10th, Omar came off the top rope and put together a trade that netted JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed. Yes we lost Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas and Endy Chavez, but overall it was a brilliant move.

Mets fans will love Sean Green....trust me on this.

Lately all us blogger types have been vacillating on which free agent starting pitchers the Mets will (or won't) sign, what the contracts will (or won't) be, which teams are (or aren't) involved, and more.

While that's all well and good, let's take a look at a "potential" 5th starter and see where the two stack up. Both men have their fans and their detractors, so the conversation, I hope, will center around past performance as a measure of potential in 2009.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Martinez #45 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
5.61	5-6	87	1.57

Full Name Pedro Jaime Martinez Birth Date October 25, 1971 Birth Place Manoguayabo, Dominican Republic Weight 193 lbs.

Height 5-11 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 16 years

College Ohio Dominican Salary 2008: $11,813,351

Tim Redding #17 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
4.95	10-11	120	1.43

Full Name Timothy James Redding Birth Date February 12, 1978 Birth Place Rochester, NY Weight 218 lbs.

Height 6-0 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 6 years

Drafted 20th round draft pick Salary 2008: $1,000,000

OK, this doesn't tell us much--we know Pedro had a rough 2008--injuries, death of his father, came back from rehab, not much pop on his fastball.

Redding had the second best year of his career. He pitched a solid 182 innings and was something of a workhorse for a terrible Nationals team.

Let's dive a bit deeper in the stats.

Pedro:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
As Starter	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	432	70	127	25	1	19	64	44	6	87	15	2	.294	.359	.488	.847
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.00	1	3	0	0	8	8	0	45.0	41	27	25	5	22	33	.244
Away	6.05	4	3	0	0	12	12	0	64.0	86	43	43	14	22	54	.326
Day	4.07	2	1	0	0	6	6	0	31.0	34	15	14	1	10	19	.283
Night	6.23	3	5	0	0	14	14	0	78.0	93	55	54	18	34	68	.298
Grass	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	230	44	70	13	0	11	39	23	3	42	7	0	.304	.366	.504	.871
vs. Right	202	26	57	12	1	8	25	21	3	45	8	2	.282	.351	.470	.821
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
July	4.40	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	14.1	13	7	7	4	7	13	.232
April	10.80	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3.1	4	4	4	2	1	1	.308
June	6.67	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	27.0	38	21	20	2	10	20	.330
August	3.83	2	1	0	0	7	7	0	42.1	41	19	18	9	14	33	.263
September	7.77	0	3	0	0	4	4	0	22.0	31	19	19	2	12	20	.337
Pre-All Star	6.25	3	2	0	0	9	9	0	44.2	55	32	31	8	18	34	.299
Post-All Star	5.18	2	4	0	0	11	11	0	64.1	72	38	37	11	26	53	.290

Redding:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
As Starter	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	709	110	195	40	1	27	93	65	7	120	13	7	.275	.338	.449	.786
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.61	6	7	0	0	18	18	0	94.2	117	67	59	15	30	55	.305
Away	4.23	4	4	0	0	15	15	1	87.1	78	43	41	12	35	65	.240
Day	3.44	3	1	0	0	6	6	1	36.2	36	15	14	3	9	25	.261
Night	5.33	7	10	0	0	27	27	0	145.1	159	95	86	24	56	95	.278
Grass	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	358	54	99	25	1	13	47	38	2	54	8	3	.277	.346	.461	.807
vs. Right	351	56	96	15	0	14	46	27	5	66	5	4	.274	.329	.436	.765
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	3.55	3	2	0	0	6	6	0	33.0	25	19	13	4	14	22	.203
May	3.86	3	1	0	0	6	6	0	35.0	33	16	15	4	14	22	.250
June	5.19	0	0	0	0	6	6	0	34.2	42	21	20	5	9	21	.296
July	4.82	1	3	0	0	5	5	1	28.0	38	15	15	1	5	19	.339
August	5.46	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	28.0	31	17	17	8	11	19	.277
September	7.71	1	3	0	0	5	5	0	23.1	26	22	20	5	12	17	.295
Post-All Star	6.82	3	8	0	0	13	13	1	67.1	80	53	51	14	27	45	.303
Pre-All Star	3.85	7	3	0	0	20	20	0	114.2	115	57	49	13	38	75	.258

Hmmmm, several flags for both.

Redding had a solid start to his season: 3.85 ERA, .257 BAA, 6-3 in April and May. But look at the rest of the season--he reverted back to "Redding normal", which is a pitcher who has trouble getting out of his own way.

ERA in the last 4 months of the season: 5.19, 4.82, 5.46, 7.71. That is awful. He finished the year with a pitiful 89 ERA+, which is one point higher than his career ERA+. How about 13 HRs allowed in his last 51 innings pitched? Flag!

And what of Pedro? We all saw his fastball topping out between 87 and 89 mph, with the very occassional low 90s on the gun. His pitches were up, he didn't have the same control, and his motion looked different.

The number aren't pretty either. 7.77 ERA in September when the team needed him most, a .326 BAA on the road, etc.

So play GM--which man would you prefer if it comes down to one of them for the 5th spot?

My money is still on Pedro--I've just never been a fan of Redding, and he was awful last year after May. Pedro actually had a very good August, and I believe that is the pitcher he is capable of being in 2009.

If Redding decides to take the Mets offer, and we haven't heard the details, hopefully Pedro will come to camp and fight.

Pedro wants to be a Met, and as this excellent article in the NY Post points out, he has some unfinished business.

At the end of the day I still trust Pedro a heck of a lot more than Tim Redding.

Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and the $150M Budget

Walk with me for a minute Mets fans.

First, let's take a stroll through Citi Field. My apologies for the weather.

Look at the fences...look at the dimensions...look at the beautiful architecture.

Is this a dream? Are Mets fans really deserving of all this largess?

Now close your eyes for a moment....think of the warm Florida breezes in February and March. Think about the hiss of the fastball and the popping of the glove. The crack as bat meets ball. The infield and dugout chatter. Now picture opening day and a beautiful 2009 in this new cathedral in Queens.

They are the sweet sounds and smells of baseball.

Now think about a Mets starting rotation of:

Johan Santana
Derek Lowe
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey

How truly wonderful would that be? Could it be a reality? If so, what would it take? Think about that rotation, together, for the next 3+ years.

Can the Mets afford to add another $25M to the payroll? Didn't they have a ton of money come off the books from the $138M they spent last year?

Haven't they lost the services of Pedro Martinez and his $12M a year? Moises Alou at $7.5M a year? El Duque at $7M a year? Jorge Sosa and his $2M a year? Scott Schoeneweis and his $3.6M a year?

Sure they locked down KRod and JJ Putz, and that cost $18M a year, but is there not room for more?

Was $138M last year really the most the Mets will spend?

If you could have those 5 starters--3 power pitchers, 3 righty's and 2 lefty's, a wonderful mix of youth and prime, fastballs, slider, curveballs, changeups and sinkers, locked up for 3+ years, would you do it? Could you do it? Should you do it?

The answer is yes, and the possibility is more real than the papers would have you believe.

Mets Morning Musings: The Rumor Mill

There are a lot of Mets rumors out there right now, and some of them are written as facts. It seems as if every tidbit that one writer generates causes every other writer and blogger to go into copycat mode immediately.

Some of these folks are friends of mine, so any criticism is not a calling out per se, but rather a look at the state of affairs in the world of Mets Blogospheres.

To whit: Ken Davidoff, a very good reporter, writes, "Confident Mets Will Not Raise Offer to Lowe, source says." The headline purports to have some very inside information. But wait, what is this source that Ken has? See if you can glean it from the only reference made to him/her in Davidoff's piece.

"The Mets, confident that they have no serious competition for Derek Lowe's services, do not intend to raise their three-year, $36-million offer to the righthander at this time, a person informed of the club's thinking told Newsday."

Wait a minute, a "person informed of the club's thinking"? What does that even mean? Who is this mystery "person informed of the clubs thinking"?

If you read Davidoff's piece, I guess that all of us are now "people informed of the clubs thinking."

But there's more--Newsday's Kat O'Brien, yes the same paper Ken Davidoff writes for, had this piece only yesterday, "Mets Talks with Lowe to Heat Up!"

I guess Ken and Kat forgot to compare notes, or maybe Kat wasn't invited to coffee at the diner with Ken and the "person informed of the cubs thinking."

Hey Kat, read Ken's piece--now you're also informed.

What do I think? The Mets are big time in the hunt for Lowe, and there is wiggle room above 3 years and $36M. Just how much is what no one knows, not even a "person informed of the clubs thinking".

Boras Bingo, Derek Lowe and the Mets

One thing is clear about Scott Boras: nothing's changed.

For those that saw Omar Minaya interviewed on the new MLB Network, it's clear that he is in deep thought about his starting pitching options and the weak free agent crop.

This much is known: Derek Lowe is his #1 target, Omar and the Mets have a price in mind, and Scott Boras has quite another price in mind for his client.

To date the Mets have offerred $36M over 3 years. Boras wants $16M a year, for at least 4 years, for his client and "claims" to have several teams interested in that price point.

I say, "Bullshit".

MLB market reality points to a scenario in which Derek Lowe might get $14M a year for 4 years, but at his age the 4th year is quite the sticking point with basically all of the remaining clubs that have shown an interest for his services.

In this morning's NY Daily News, the headline blares, "Mets may miss out on Lowe!" It's as if the club most likely to sign the starter is suddenly out of the running because Boras is doing his job in trying to maximize the contract for his client.

The facts say otherwise.

1. This is a business, and businessmen are doing the negotiating.
2. The sides aren't as far apart as it seems.
3. Both Boras and the Mets are being patient, as they should.

If Boras, as he claims, truly had an offer close to what he's seeking for Lowe, he'd have already jumped at it. The Phils, a team Boras has leaked as a likely suitor, simply don't need Lowe for that money. They have 4 great starters locked up and a slew of arms competing for the 5th spot.

The Mets will land Lowe, of that I'm certain. It will just take a bit more time, a bit more Boras Bingo, and a bit more money.

3 years at $42M guaranteed and a club option 4th year for $16M is the most likely scenario.

It's just a matter of time.

Remaining Free Agents and the Mets

We all know the names: Lowe, Garland, Dunn, Manny, Abreu, Wolf, Perez, Redding.

So who fits for the Mets, and who doesn't?

Our friend Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated just finished a piece handicapping the remaining free agents.

Jon racks and stacks them as follows:

1. Bobby Abreu, OF
2. Milton Bradley, OF/DH
3. Pat Burrell, OF/DH.
4. Orlando Cabrera, SS.
5. Joe Crede, 3B
6. Adam Dunn, OF
7. Jon Garland, SP.
8. Jason Giambi, DH/1B.
9. Orlando Hudson, 2B.
10. Derek Lowe, SP.
11. Oliver Perez, SP
12. Andy Pettitte, SP.
13. Manny Ramirez, OF.
14. Ben Sheets, SP
15. Jason Varitek, C.
16. Randy Wolf, SP.
17. Garret Anderson, OF
18. Freddy Garcia, SP
19. Cliff Floyd, DH
20. Tim Redding, SP.

It's an interesting list, and many of the names have been bandied about as possibilities for the Mets.

We rank the ones that could most help the Mets as follows:

1. Oliver Perez, SP: Very high on Ollie. Strikeout pitcher, hitting his prime, aces against the Phils lefty lineup, and wants the ball in tough spots. He's young, he's lefty, and he's nasty. $$$$
2. Derek Lowe, SP: Innings eater who throws ground balls. Seems like the perfect fit for this team, at this time. He's older, but has a great motion and body type for longevity. $$$$
3. Manny Ramirez, OF: Not gonna happen, but just think if it could. Manny in left field for 2 years would make this lineup as good as any in baseball, plus we'd all get to enjoy his fielding. $$$$$
4. Jon Garland, SP: Guaranteed to start 32+ games and throw 200 innings. Battler, pitches to contact, but gets the job done. Would slot well to the #4 in this rotation. $$$
5. Orlando Hudson, 2B: Worth the price of admission to see him and Reyes in the same infield. Very capable hitter who gets on base and makes things happen. If it weren't for Castillo, Hudson would already be a Met. $$$
6. Adam Dunn, OF: Has his flaws, but also his strengths. Big power with a keen eye. Not a great RBI man, but in a stacked lineup he could have the best year of his career. Average fielder. Omar is not a fan. $$$$
7. Ben Sheets, SP: Has great stuff, but the injury worry is there. Surprising lack of interest in this excellent pitcher. Someone is going to get a relative bargain. $$$$
8. Randy Wolf, SP: I'm not a fan. Had a very nice 2008, but before that had four consecutive years of 18 starts or less. $$$

I still believe Lowe will be a Met, but there's a good chance that more than one name from Heyman's list gets added in the next two weeks.

Warming to the Idea of Jon Garland

Mets need pitching, and there just aren't a lot of options.

If I were King, my priorities would be, in order:

Oliver Perez: 4 years at $52M
Derek Lowe: 3 years at $42M
Jon Garland: 3 years at $25M (incentives to $30M)
Braden Looper: 2 years at $14M

That's my rack and stack and what I think would get the deals done. Unfortunately, there just aren't many quality FA starting pitchers out there this year.

You know why I only like those 4?

Innings--all four of these starters go out and put up at or near 200 innings year after year.

The rest of the FA list is all over the place--very up and down, with injury histories throughout.

The Mets should spend money smartly on someone who will be able to take the mound every 5th day...we were burned by Pedro, sadly, and it just puts a huge amount of pressure on a team when you have starters go down for any length of time. We see this all over baseball--Mark Prior, Carl Pavano and on and on and on. Losing a starting pitcher is one of the most damaging things that can happen to a team in the pennant hunt.

People mock inning counts, but to me it is one of the best measuring sticks for a starting pitcher.

A starting pitcher who goes 200 innings year after year after year is a very, very valuable resource--it takes pressure off the bullpen, takes pressure off of the other starters, and it keeps the team grinding throughout the long season by not disrupting flow and momentum.

How many times last year did the Mets go into panic mode because yet another unknown entity was taking the hill in a key game? How much pressure did it put on middle relief, and then the domino affect into the closers and even the offense?

So yes Mets fans, I'm warming to the idea of Jon Garland, much to the chagrin of several of my fellow bloggers.

Sure, he was semi-bad last year on a good team, but let's go back to his 2007 splits:

RH: .281 BA, .315 OBP, .426 Slg
LH: .259 BA, .321 OBP, .401 Slg

That's pretty good....and yes, he threw 208.3 innings with a 112 ERA+ in 2007.

And again, going back to my requirement for an innings-eater, he certainly fits the bill.

Over the last 7 years, he has started 33 games twice, and 32 games 5 times. During that stretch, his innings counts were:

193 IP
192 IP
217 IP
221 IP
211 IP
208 IP
197 IP

Let's bottom line this: 10.5% of all Mets starts last year (17 to be exact) came from Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas.

The Mets must make a reliable innings-eating starter a priority. If not Derek Lowe, Jon Garland is the most reliable guy out there.

Pretty scary, no?

Derek Lowe Will Sign With the Mets...I Think

I've been chuckling a bit at the Derek Lowe "saga".

Bottom line is this: there is a limited market for Lowe, and the Mets made an obviously lowball offer for him, so there is a next step, and a counter-step, and a final step.

So what's next? It will happen as follows...

A little Scott Boras newspaper bingo, a little "he said, we said", and then a deal is made.

The deal will most likely look as follows: 3 years, with $42M guaranteed, and a club option 4th year at $16M for a total of 4 years and $58M if all pans out.

The Mets "get their guy", Boras, "get his deal", and everyone leaves happy.

Look for it to happen next week....I think.

Happy New Year!