NY Sports Dog: Ryan Church: A Full Season Projection

Monday, January 12, 2009

Ryan Church: A Full Season Projection

OK, it's Monday, the Giants lost, and I am pissed.

Today should be an interesting day with the Hall of Fame announcement at 1:30 live on MLB Network.

Jim Rice fans are on edge.

We're also likely to get another half dozen Derek Lowe and Ollie Perez insights, including a purported Braves offer to Derek Lowe.

As for me, I am going to look at Ryan Church's numbers over the last 2 seasons and project his 2009.

We'll look at his second half of 2007 (61 games) and first half of 2008 (57 games), then give him 525 at-bats.

This is the methodology, it's simple, it's just math, and there are no park factors, trends, regression, etc...again, it's just math.

Last Half 2007/First Half 2008:

209 AB, 25 R, 55 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 17 BB, 52 K, .293 BA, .354 OBP, .532 Slg, .886 OPS

205 AB, 40 R, 63 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 19 BB, 50 K, .307 BA, .370 OBP, .512 Slg, .882 OPS

Now let's combine those numbers.

414 AB, 65 R, 118 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 36 BB, 102 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS

Now let's look at those numbers over 525 at bats.

2009 Projection:

525 AB, 83 R, 150 H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 46 BB, 130 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS
OK, that was fairly unscientific, but I would wager that would be close to what we would expect out of Church over a full season.

In fact, if you look back at his 2006 campaign, a year in which he had 460 at-bats, those figures are pretty close. On a more positive note his 2007 September, followed by his first 2 months of 2008, was even better than these numbers suggest.

You know what else? I'll take it.

Mark it down now: Ryan Church wins Comeback Player of the Year.
Reblog this post [with Zemanta]


LadyMet said...

I am praying at the Church of Ryan that you are right.

Dave Singer said...

Hey Lady Met! I hope I'm right too...it would be a first! :-)

Related Posts with Thumbnails