NY Sports Dog: Beginning the Love-Hate Relationship with Redding

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Beginning the Love-Hate Relationship with Redding

Since we're now officially into Day 2 of the Tim Redding era with the NY Mets, let's start our love-hate relationship with him on the right foot.

Reasons to love him:

Reasons to hate him:
So all in all we have a few more reasons to love Tim Redding than to hate him.

Sure he's no Pedro, he's not really good, he's never had a plus pitch, or pitched in the postseason, but he's a Met....sort of.

So let's bottom line this thing:

The Mets are not winning a championship trotting Tim Redding out there every 5th day. We have a pretty big sample size out of him in 7 big league seasons, and the vast majority of his career, including the second half of 2008, has been marginal to awful (and I'm being kind), but he could help...at least Omar thinks so.

My hope? That he loses the 5th starter spot, but still helps the team...Omar Minaya has stated that he plans on having 7-8 candidates for the 5 starting spots and he wants it to be a competition.

Given that Redding pretty much has a roster spot guaranteed at that money, he could surprise us as the long man/spot starter....that's the hope anyway.

Don't you wish you had your jersey retired from Monroe Community College?

I need coffee....Tim Redding is a Met....holy crap......Love, Hate.....
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Anonymous said...

I think you nailed it.

We are going to love and hate this guy.

If you think about it though, he might be a little better than the 5 guys we used as filler in August and September.

I hope anyway.

tim redding said...

we can attribute his terrible second half stats to the foot injury that he had. plus, he played on a horrible nationals team that featured an anemic offense, porous defense, and a bullpen that blew 7 of his games (tied with santana though i am not comparing the two). he could be worth 6.5 million but end up getting less than half that according to beyondtheboxscore.com. he gets more groundouts than flyballs, and if you take into account that out of the total 27 hrs he gave up in 181 innings, minus the 13 in the last 51 innings you stated, that means before his injury began plaguing him more he was at 14 hrs in 130 innings which is acceptable for a #5. i think the main gripe with this guy is we have the money to get someone better but we don't. i think he's another john maine type surprise.

Dave Singer said...

Nice remarks, and you are 100% correct that the upside is potentially there.

I do worry about his left foot, and how he'll do early on.

One question to ponder--is he an upgrade over Stokes?

tim redding said...

my foot feels fine and i am sooo much better than stokey.

Dave Singer said...

Well played!

Hey, if he helps, and as you wrote he certainly might, I am all for this depth move.

You can never have enough starting pitching.

Your thoughts on bringing Pedro to Spring Training?

Anonymous said...

I see Redding in the role that Darren Oliver played a couple of years back. He could be a very good long man out of the 'pen, as well as a spot starter.

I'm all for bringing Petey back in that 5th spot. I think he'll surprise at the back end, especially since his family situation is no longer an issue. Plus, he could be a great mentor to the younger pitchers.

Dave Singer said...

I feel the same way.

I recently wrote a bit on this...look at Pedro's August...the stars were beginning to align for him, and then just as quickly it went away.

There's a year left in that arm...a good year.

Charles said...

I'm torn. I'm from Rochester and this guy was a local hero. He always proclaimed being a huge Mets fan in the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle when he was a kid and was a touted prospect. He always seemed like a decent guy in the interviews I've read. I want him to succeed especially since he always wanted to play for the team I root for. But in the same token, he's just not really good enough to be their #5 guy. Maybe a spot starter or long reliever but regardless....cmon...lay off the Monroe Community College bashing....I have a lot of high school friends who went there

tim said...

i'm all for bringing pedro in: if he accepts the fact that he can't blow people away with his fastball the first time through the lineup and then switch to his off speed stuff later (as evident from his horrible 1st innings) and starts depending on his craftiness while trying to sneak a fastball in once and a while, i believe he'll be productive. and he would be a great mentor like anonymous said for all of us on the staff. but would he come on with a contract slightly better than mine, i.e. for 3-4 million with incentives to reach 7 when reports suggest he's already rejected a guaranteed 7 mil offer?

Dave Singer said...

Charles...I put the fact that his jersey was retired from MCC as a reason to love him!

And I agree with you on Redding...I still don't see him as more than a "6th starter", but I hope to be proven very wrong.

Dave Singer said...

Tim...good thoughts.

I am actually wondering about something...we've heard Pedro "feels good" and that he is "emotionally in a better place" and that he "wants to win a championship with the Mets".

All that is well and good.

What haven't we heard?

How is his fastball? What is it topping out at?

That's what I want to know...Petey at 92-93 mph is still a #4 starter in the league.

Mets Tailgate said...

"not really a bargain at $2.25 million with incentives"

Read up on Fangraphs and Beyond the Boxscore - they peg his projected value at around $5 million. He could be a big-time bargain. $2.25 million is like 1-2% of the Mets payroll.

"The Mets are not winning a championship trotting Tim Redding out there every 5th day."

Redding is projected at 160 IP and about a 4.95 ERA. In 2006, the average 5th starter had a 6.26 ERA. Here are the ERA's of the #5starters of the 8 teams who made the playoffs that year:

Mets: 6.55
Cardinals: 6.59
Padres: 4.91
Dodgers: 5.75

Tigers: 4.48
Yankees: 6.44
Twins: 6.51
A's: 5.16

I'm too lazy to get the numbers for '08 but I'm guessing they're similar. So with Redding going every 5th day and a 4.95 ERA the Mets could CERTAINLY win a championship.

This is a solid signing that could prove to be a bargain. And if he sucks, whatever, it's jus $2.25 million. Pedro turned down a 1 year $7 million contract from a team and is projected at 70 IP and a 4.95 ERA. Redding is a superior option at this point.

Dave Singer said...

James, I appreciate your optimism (as always), but I am very troubled by Redding's second half:

3-8, 6.82 ERA, .303 BAA after the all-star break

Couple that with his 7-year career of mediocrity, off-season surgery, etc, and he is a very difficult pitcher to project for 2009.

Did he have two good months to start his 2008 campaign? Sure, but that wasn't the norm for his career by a big margin.

Mets Tailgate said...


I'm going by the extremely high-level CHONE and Marcel projections at Fangraphs. Projecting performance is tough but these are the best tools available to us.

Every blog I've seen ripping the Redding signing fails to grasph that it is pretty cheap and he is expected to be the #5 starter - no the #2 starter!!! No one can grasp this I don't get it. 4.95 ERA from a #5 is pretty solid.

Dave Singer said...

Well, I haven't ripped the signing.

I am 50-50 and worry about those second half stats.

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