Takahashi has Amazing Control Numbers

I was looking at Takahashi's advanced pitching statistics this morning, and the numbers are just off the charts.

His control, the speeds, and the K and BB numbers are enough to make any manager smile.

Couple this with his poise and belief in himself, and you can see why the Mets have done so well with him on the mound.

Summary - Pitch Result

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	278	44.1%	72.7%	47.8%	7.6%	23.7%	16.5%
CH	118	18.7%	64.4%	47.5%	12.7%	16.9%	17.8%
FT	59	9.4%	59.3%	54.2%	22.0%	15.3%	16.9%
SI	57	9.0%	70.2%	64.9%	24.6%	21.1%	19.3%
CU	55	8.7%	50.9%	34.5%	10.9%	16.4%	7.3%
SL	52	8.3%	57.7%	42.3%	11.5%	21.2%	9.6%
FC	10	1.6%	50.0%	50.0%	30.0%	10.0%	10.0%
FA	1	0.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

His primary pitch is actually the fastball, which he works off of to great effect.  He is getting 72.7% strikes on the four-seamer.

How good is that?  Santana gets 71.1%.  A guy like Ollie Perez sits in the low 60s.

The amazing display of control we've seen from Tak has resulted in an extremely high K rate.  The hitters know that he will work the zone, or just off it, and you can see the confusion on their face with each pitch.  Hitters aren't up there waiting for a walk, they're up there and defensive, often falling behind in the count early.

He is only walk 6.33% of hitters.  How good?  Tim Lincecum walks 12.59% of hitters he faces.

His overall at bat result numbers:

Summary - At-bat Result

Strikeout	27.22%
Flyout	14.56%
Groundout	13.92%
Single	12.66%
Double	6.96%
Walk	6.33%
Pop Out	4.43%
Lineout	3.80%
Intent Walk	3.16%
Sac Bunt	2.53%
Forceout	1.27%
Grounded Into DP	1.27%
Home Run	0.63%
Strikeout - DP	0.63%
Sac Fly	0.63%

Finally there is the location itself.  He throws strikes, he is on the corners, and he keeps his pitches down.  I don't have the time to post a bunch of comparison pics, but here are Taks and Lincecums.  What you see from Tak below is as good as it gets.  I challenge you to find a tighter overall dispersion than Tak is putting up this year.

Here is Lincecum's:

 The Mets have really found themselves a gem.

Maine Deserved an Inning

I was at the game last night--right behind the Mets dugout--so I witnessed Maine's warmup, his sequence to Nyjer Morgan, and the look on his face as he got pulled.

I saw him walking directly toward us, and his angry reaction at getting pulled.

Jerry Manuel needed a win last night, desperately needed a win, but with the Yankees and Phillies on the horizon for the next few games, he also needs his bullpen.

Takahashi is pitching tonight, and the odds of him going deep are slim to none--6 innings will be a miracle.

Main looked bad on his first few pitches, and better after...then he gets pulled.

Dan Warthan calls him a habitual liar--Jerry had the BP warming up before the game started.

It was not a very good scene.

"When you throw your first pitch and you see a guy warming up in the bullpen, it's a lose-lose situation," Maine said.

"He wanted to pitch," Manuel said. "We got in a heated exchange about that and I tried to tell him I was trying to protect his best interests."

Said Maine: "I didn't get a chance (to make a case to remain in the game). I think that's what I'm most upset about. They said they saw something so they were taking me out. I'm a little hurt by that."

Maine deserved one of two things--an inning or to stay in until a run scored.

He got neither.

This final quote is the most telling--it shows just how much Jerry Manuel has lost this club:

Asked if he thought Manuel had confidence in him, the pitcher said. "I'm sure he doesn't have confidence in me. Whatever. My dealings are with Dan."

Related articles by Zemanta

• New York Mets pull starter John Maine after first batter with apparent injury (sports.espn.go.com)
• Mets Win Behind Valdes' Strong Effort (bleacherreport.com)
• Mets 10 - Nationals 7 May 20, 2010 (metsreport.com)
• News: John Maine Injured, Leaves Game (metsblog.com)

Mejia to Minors--Mets Fans Rejoice

Adam Rubin is reporting that 20-year old Jennry Mejia is headed back to the minors to stretch his arm out in hopes of giving the Mets another starting pitching option.

Though Mejia has pitched well, there is something clasically wrong about taking a top starting prospect and using him in meaningless relief games in April and May.

Mejia is currently 12th in all of MLB in appearances.

From Rubin:

The Mets should have a new starting pitching option within a month.

Top prospect Jenrry Mejia, whose dazzling Grapefruit League performance prompted the Mets to place him on the Opening Day roster as a reliever, is expected to head to the minors to resume being used as a starting pitcher. That could be timed with R.A. Dickey’s activation before Wednesday’s start, a team source told ESPNNewYork.com.

The decision is believed to have been affirmed during Monday’s meeting at Turner Field that included chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon, GM Omar Minaya, assistant GM John Ricco and manager Jerry Manuel.

The Mets could be facing major rotation issues behind Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey, so stretching out Mejia for starting work makes sense. Oliver Perez has been dispatched to the bullpen, John Maine -- while largely producing of late -- doesn’t have the zip he had in 2007 and Jon Niese has a mild right hamstring strain. The Mets will have Dickey face the Washington Nationals on Wednesday and use Hisanori Takahashi in place of Niese on Friday.

It will take Mejia some time to be ready to return to the majors in a starting capacity. It should, in fact, be comparable to a spring-training build-up, when a pitcher throws two innings, then three innings and so on until he’s up to a 90-100 pitch count.

Mejia is 0-2 with a 2.60 ERA, with 14 strikeouts and eight walks, in 17 1/3 innings spanning 18 major league appearances.

Fish Sweep Mets; Niese Injured

Today brought the end to a humiliating 4-game series against the Marlins in which the Mets got swept by losing the final 10-8.

It also may have struck the beginning of the death knell for manager Jerry Manuel.

Today's game perfectly encapsulated the Mets frustrations this year and last--an injury, bad defense, up and down hitting, and very spotty relief.

Jonathan Niese, who has pitched well in his rookie campaign left the game with an injured hamstring.

Niese made it to the third inning when he injured his right proximal hamstring while fielding a bunt by Gaby Sanchez.  In a move that horrified Mets fans everywhere, Niese grabbed the back of his right leg and looked visibly uncomfortable. He gamely tried to pitch on, but after one toss to Hanley Ramirez, he was forced out of the game and replaced by Hisanori Takahashi.

The timing of the injury couldn't be any worse given that Oliver Perez was demoted to the bullpen yesterday, and John Maine was extremely ineffective Saturday.

Niese was only charged with one earned run thanks to a woeful defense.  David Wright had a very poor game at third and the Mets quickly fell behind 7-0.

To the Mets credit, they came back to within one run on some timely hitting by, of all people, Gary Mathews Jr, but the rally quickly ended thanks to Jerry Manuel's inexplicable move of pinch-hitting for cleanup hitter Chris Carter.

Jeff Francoeur, who sat out the start of the game because of a deep, deep slump, came on to pinch-hit for Carter and was dispatched in 2 pitches.

Speaking of Carter, "The Animal" had an RBI for the Mets, who also received timely RBI hits from Alex Cora and David Wright.  There is absolutely no reason why Francoeur replaced Carter other than Jerry's belief that a righty-lefty matchup is always the right call to make.  The bottom line is this--Francoeur needed at least a full day off, if not more, and Carter was penciled in at cleanup.  What kind of signal do you send to him when you PH for him with the game on the line.

It was piss-poor managing.

Fernando Nieve came on after the Mets rally and promptly gave up three runs to put the game out of reach at 10-7.  The Mets added one more run to make it 10-8, again on a GMJ hit, but the game ended after that.

It was a disgusting 4 days of baseball for the Mets, and they failed in every way a team can fail.

Fittingly, David Wright came up with a chance to tie the game in the 9th and he struck out.

It's time for Jerry to go.

Related articles

• Marlins 10 - Mets 8 May 16, 2010 (metsreport.com)
• Coghlan's blast fuels Marlins to 4-game sweep of Mets (cbssports.com)

Good Morning Mets Fans!

We had a lot of fun on Twitter last night following the game.  For those of you wanting a little fan interaction, I really recommend it.  All of the bloggers and beat writers are there, and it's very enjoyable.

It's even more enjoyable when the Mets win, and thanks to Rod Barajas 9th inning herioics, a win it was.

I think Rod needs a slogan.  How about:

The New and improved Rod Barajas, now with even more "A-Ha!"


Barajas solo shot in the ninth inning rallied the Mets to a 5-4 victory.  Truthfully, Rod's heroics should not have been needed, but Jerry Manuel insists on pitching Fernando Nieve until his arm falls off, and Nieve showed a few cracks in the armor in allowing two 8th inning homeruns to the Reds, which erased the Mets 4-2 lead.

Barajas shot was an absolute bomb--Reds closer Francisco Cordero put one right in Rod's wheelhouse, and the sturdy catcher knew exactly what to do.

Barajas now leads the Mets in dingers with seven, which is also the most by any catcher in baseball.

"He's been impressive in that manner," manager Jerry Manuel said. "He's had some big hits at some big moments."

Perpetual Pedro Feliciano got the final out in the eighth and got the win, and Frankie Rodriguez pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save in five tries.

"It's good to win a close game," said David Wright, who hit the other solo homer. "That's something we have not been able to do a lot of this year. Hopefully this gives us a little momentum."


"You don't want to be a team that diminishes a winning streak with a bad streak," Manuel said. "You want to right the ship."

David Wright's homerun came off of Bronson Arroyo, who pitched well, but not as well as he had in the recent past against the Mets.  Jose Reyes is rounding back into offensive shape.  Reyes chipped in with two hits, a run-scoring single in the first and a double in the sixth inning.

There were some very good signs from John Maine as well.  The lanky rigt hander pitched 6 innings and allowed only one earned run.  He also K'd six batters and walked two.

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
N.Y. Mets (15-12) «	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	5	8	1
Cincinnati (13-14)	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	6	0

Player of the Game

New York R. Barajas AB 4 R 1 H 1 HR 1 RBI 1

All in all a very satisfying win.  Enjoy your coffee!

Nicknaming the Mets

Sometimes the existing nickname works, and for others, a new one is in order:

Henry "Whitey" Blanco
"Dudley" D. Wright
Jeff "Frenchy" Francoeur
Jason "Thunder" Bay
Luis "Rickets" Castillo
Ike "Money" Davis
Jose "Jose, Jose, Jose" Reyes
Rod "Bam Bam" Barajas
Carlos "Who Dat?" Beltran
Hisanori "Mothra" Takahashi
Fernando "Emernice" Tatis
"Perpetual" Pedro Feliciano
John "Freight Train" Maine

John Maine's Range of Emotions, Plus One

Everyone once in a while he'll smile, as evidenced by this 2006 photograph.

John Maine's Range of Emotions in Picture Form

Good Morning Mets Fans!

5 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts, zero RBIs, one run...and a win.

It was scant offensive production, but on this rainy night at Citi Field, it was enough because Mike Pelfrey simply refuses to give up runs.

Mike Pelfrey is now 4-0 with a "near complete game" 5-inning laborious effort that was oftentimes frustrating to watch, but Houdini like in his ability to get out of inning after inning unscathed.  Raul Valdes threw exactly one pitch in the top of the 6th, denying Pelf the complete game--it's a strange rule, but the pitch counts.

Finally the baseball Gods had seen enough, and after 5 innings (and one pitch), the skies opened up, and it was the end of the night for everyone and the Mets 4th win in a row.

The Mets are now 1.5 games back of the Phillies, tied for second place with the Marlins and Nationals.

Big Pelf's scoreless streak is now 24 innings, he is 4-0 on the year, and his ERA is a miniscule 0.69 (insert your own joke here).  Additionally his WHIP is 1.19 and he is holding the opposition to a .200 batting average against.

Jose Reyes was responsible for the lone run of the contest...he blooped a hit, stole second, then came around to score after Jason Bay hit a sharp single to Chipper Jones.  Instead of putting the ball in his back pocket, Larry tried to throw out Bay at first, and the ball bounced away from Braves first baseman of the day Troy Glaus.  Reyes easily scored on the error.

The Mets have are now over the .500 mark for the first time since opening day.  Of note, the win gave them their first sweep of the year and put that look we love on Bobby Cox face...he is in agony.

Pelfrey leads the major leagues in ERA...he is pitching like a terrific #2 starter, if not an ace, and battling like we've never seen him battle before.  Mike Pelfrey is a stud, and he is exuding confidence.

"I can't say I was pleased with my outing," Pelfrey said. "My command wasn't great and they did a good job laying off my pitches and made me work."

Tonight the Dodgers come into town for three with Ollie Perez on the hill.  The Mets are eager to keep the winning baseball going at home, as after these three, it's on to Philly for what will surely be an early season measuring stick series.

According to the Daily News, John Maine will make his next scheduled start.

Metstradamus approves of this sweep.

Andy Martino tips us to the class of the Mets organization--even though the fans technically saw a complete baseball game last night, they can redeem those tickets for tickets against the Padres or Tigers.

Amazin Avenue has a recap...and a nice poem by my friend Howard Megdal.

Enjoy your Monday morning coffee!

Scoreboard
Final 6th	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Atlanta (8-10)	0	0	0	0	0	0				0	5	2
N.Y. Mets (10-9) «	1	0	0	0	0	x				1	5	0

Player of the Game

New York M. Pelfrey IP 5.0 H 5 ER 0 BB 5 K 3

 Related articles:

• Mets 1, Braves 0, 5 Innings (Rain): Mets Win Rain-Shortened Game to Sweep Braves (nytimes.com)
• Pelfrey, Mets hold off Braves in rain-shortened game (cbssports.com)

Is Dillon Gee Next?

As news of Ike Davis imminent arrival flowed through the blogosphere, there is still "the Maine question" to be dealt with in the coming weeks.

We saw John Maine struggle again last night...

Struggle with velocity--he topped out at 90 mph on a fastball that seemed to sit more in the 87-89 range than anything.

Struggle with control--he hit a batter, walked four, and needed 115 pitches to get through 5 innings.  Moreover, at least two Cardinals reached base in each of those innings.

On the year Maine has a 10.38 ERA and a staggeringly poor 2.23 WHIP.  Opponents are hitting .368 against him.

It's beyond ugly.

We only have to look to AAA to see the possible answer in the form of Dillon Gee.

Gee is off to a hot start in AAA--dominant is a better word.  In two starts he's pitched 13 innings and allowed a miserly 5 hits, 1 walk and 0 runs while striking out 12.

So what to do with Maine?

He could certainly go to the bullpen, become the long man, and try and regain the 3-4 mph he's lost on his fastball through a throwing program that would build him back up.

This would be a temporary move and could be the best thing for the still young pitcher.  He'll throw regularly, work every day, keep his head in the game vice over-thinking things for days between starts, and not have the same type of pressure that he's feeling now.

For Gee it works because statistics say that the Mets would need him at some point this year anyway.  Most teams use 8-10 starters in any given year, so why not see what Gee can do now vice August or in an emergency?  This would allow the Mets to plan when the first start takes place (at home) and most likely against a weaker team.  An easing in of sorts.

The whole plan works on a lot of levels.

I do think Maine gets one more start, but it's clear he's not there right now.  A stint in the bullpen and a few starts by Gee could be just what the doctor ordered...for everyone.

Things I Did During Yesterday's Mets Game

4:15:  Turned on the game, settled into the Lazy Boy with a Beer
4:20:  Tried to calculate David Wright's OBP after another walk in the first inning
4:22:  Shook my head after another Jason Bay strikeout
4:35:  Ordered in some Thai food for delivery
4:41:  Second beer
5:13:  Realized for sure this would be a pitcher's duel, both guys had nasty stuff
5:35:  My Pad Thai and Chicken Satay are delivered, I open my third beer
5:40:  Shake my head as Jason Bay strikes out again
6:15:  Do a happy dance as Angel Pagan breaks up the no-hitter, celebrate with a beer
6:41:  Clap for Johan Santana as Igarashi relieves him...atta boy Johan!
7:12:  We're going to extra innings....beer me
7:34:  Shake my head as Jason Bay strikes out...again
7:39:  Alex Cora dives into the stands to make the play!!!  Wow, amazing!
8:00:  Make a salami sandwich...my wife comes into ask me if I'm ready to watch a Blu-Ray...walks away in disgust as I say, "no, but can you bring me a beer?"
8:12:  Shake my head in disgust as Jason Bay strikes out...again
8:20:  My brother calls me to ask if I'm watching the game...I hang up on him (Yankee fan)
8:41:  Takahashi walks the tight rope...loads the bases and strikes out three...beer!!!
9:10:  Luis Castillo with a great tag...Jonathan Niese is pinch hitting, John Maine is pinch running
9:34:  I have a meltdown with Valdes is thrown out at second....must have a beer now
9:47:  My dog comes in and starts licking my hand...I shoo him away...this is too important!
10:15:  I have another meltdown when Jerry Manuel asks Luis Castillo to bunt against a position player that can't find the strike zone...I stick another pin in my Jerry Manuel voodoo doll and just as I do it, they cut to a picture of Jerry smiling in the dugout
10:20:  I start crying like a baby when Jeff Francoeur hits a sac fly to bring Jose Reyes home with a run!  An actual run!
10:32: Albert Pujols doubles...I have a heart attack...my wife comes in to check on me...I tell her I'm fine and ask her for a beer.
10:37: The Cards tie it, I decide to do 20 pushups and kick my neighbor's cat
10:49: Jose Reyes sac fly to take the lead 2-1...much rejoicing...I hurriedly run to the bathroom and grab a beer on my way back to the chair
11:00:  Pelfrey getting squeezed by the ump, My wife comes in to tell me she's going to bed...I ignore her
11:08:  Grounder to Castillo...it's over!  I yell a little, fall off my chair, and high five my imaginary friends
11:10 Pack up my Lazy Boy and prep it for shipping to the Hall of Fame
11:15 My brother calls to ask why I hung up on him earlier...I hang up on him again
11:30 Pass out

Next day...

8:00:  Wake up and my dog is licking my face...I actually don't mind it...go to the bedroom where my wife is sleeping, I lick her face for a few minutes until she wakes up...she tells me my breath stinks...shower, coffee, blogging.

Good morning Mets Fans!

John Maine--Sad, but True?

Last month, on March 15th, I reported the following:

You won't hear it from the team...yet. You won't hear it from the management...yet. You will hear it from me...now.

I am extremely worried about Maine's arm...he might be shot, done, finito.

Thus far, his 2010 spring training has confirmed that he is not in form, and that the last two years of surgeries and disabled list rests from "shoulder fatigue" and other shoulder ailments may have removed the pain, but not brought back the stuff that made him a capable middle of the rotation starter.

During the off-season a contact I have with deep ties to the Mets organization warned me that "Maine is done" as a starter because "he has a dead arm."
"A dead arm? Really?" I was incredulous.

"Yes, it's dead, and his stuff is gone," he reiterated. I didn't believe him and basically laughed him off.

 After two starts there is zero question in my mind that I was told the truth.

This is truly a sad situation.

Every Mets Song Over the Years

My friend Metsmanic over at Mets Refugees put together a list of every Mets song over the years (full list below with YouTube links)

Some of these songs bring back such great memories, but of course, nothing beats the original.

I like his idea of playing every one of them over and over until the game begins.

Hell, we need the mojo!  Enjoy!

Meet the Mets- 1964: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTLmDuhV3AQ
Meet the Mets- Organ: http://youngmanhattanite.com/music/M...Mets_Organ.mp3
Meet the Mets- 1984: http://youngmanhattanite.com/music/MeetTheMets1984.mp3
Meet the Mets- 1999: http://youngmanhattanite.com/music/MeetTheMets1999.mp3
Meet the Mets- Mike and the Mad Dog: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEA1qaDJ85s
Meet the Mets- Yo La Tengo: http://www.fileden.com/files/2007/5/...The%20Mets.mp3
Meet the Mets- Bob Costas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixO3oeQRQ5Y
Mets Didn't Start the Fire: http://podcast.itm-1015.com/wfan/1155521.mp3
Bagel Boys - Schoeneweis, Newhan, and Green: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KK6_SKYwSI
The Johan Santana Song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h-iurHfqls
The John Maine Song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5lHOI_SuGg
Let's Go Mets GO- 1986: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80Tn9mfVMxs
Rise Up (METS): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InfrGxB4CHk
New York Mets OUR TEAM OUR TIME: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNMoSmuEXw0
Lucas Prata Mets Song- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-e8Mkjnx80
Who Let The Mets Out?: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7zayUCgijU
Get Metsmerized!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpvufrpAhls
Rock The City: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNjYXEf98nw
The Mets Rap: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ghN2ng1l-E
Chocolate Strawberry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol75BB7ly4k
Dr. K: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikM8VCN43cw

Mets 2010 Season Prediction

The Mets will be better in 2010 than they were in 2009, the question is how much better?

While many pundits are predicting a long season, I believe there is reason for hope and that the Mets will compete well and challenge for the division.

Let's begin with a look at the positions:

Catcher. In the off-season I thought the Mets would fare best with a youth movement, both here and at first base.  Last year's catching duo of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro are long gone, and I truly felt Josh Thole could handle the job provided the Mets added a veteran caddy.  Instead of going with this plan, the Mets added a bunch of veteran backstops, and two of them are poised to handle the catching duties in 2010.  Both Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco are pretty sound defensive catchers with power and a canny knack for not getting on base.  I do think these guys will help the staff and do what doctors promise to their patients--do no harm.
Verdict:  Upgrade

First base. First is the other "youth movement" position.  Ike Davis had an outstanding 2009 minor league campaign, followed by a brilliant fall, and an even better spring--he goes to the minors.  Daniel Murphy, a big-time punching bag in 2009, had a steady spring, especially defensively.  Unfortunately for Mr Murphy, he tweaked his knee and start the season on the DL. It looks like once promising slugger Mike Jacobs has won the role as the opening day first sacker.  Jacobs has a very long swing, strikes out a ton, and plays defense like my grandmother--but he is a super nice guy and he'll hit the occasional long ball when his bat somehow finds the ball.  Fernando Tatis, who had a horrible spring, figures to get some playing time here as well.  I really would have liked the Mets to go with Chris Carter here.
Verdict:  Status Quo 

Second base. Let me start by saying I actually like Luis Castillo a lot.  That said, Jerry just uses him the wrong way.  He hit for average last year, and his OBP was terrific, but the man has no business in the 2 hole.  He bunts too often, has zero power, and his range at second is more limited by the day.  I am certainly OK with Castillo at second this year, but he should bat 8th--period.
Verdict:  Status Quo

Third base. Mr Met David Wright needs a big season--and he is going to have one.  Last year he was a mental train wreck, and he suffered more than most from the AAA lineup the Mets put out in 2009.  His power is back this spring, and he looks like the David Wright of old.  I think he'll hit 30+ homeruns with a ton of doubles and RBIs while playing slightly above league average third base.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Shortstop. Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose!  He's back, and he could be back on opening day if the Mets weren't so gun shy right now with injuries.  Jose is going to bring the go-go Mets back and spark the entire lineup with his talents.  With Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jason Bay behind him in the lineup, Reyes can easily score 120 runs in 2010.  He is going to miss the first 5 games of the season, but that's fine if he stays healthy the rest of the year.  I am expecting the best season of his career.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Outfield. Call me crazy, but I think the Mets 2010 outfield might be the best the team has ever had.  Jason Bay is a tremendous hitter and veteran presence who will provide the stability and power that the Mets never seem to find in their leftfielder.  Carlos Beltran, who should be back in a few weeks, is one of the premier centerfielders in the game.  He is a true five-tool player and a clutch performer.  Jeff Francoeur seems to have a new lease on life.  If he gets on base at anything above a .330 clip, the rest of his game will be there, including excellent defense, an agressive attitude, and a wonderful clubhouse presence.  This group will delight Mets fans all year--after Beltran gets back that is.  I am confident in Angel Pagan and Gary Mathews to fill in well--both guys are big time talents that add a great deal of depth to the team.
Verdict:  Major Upgrade

Rotation. Oh boy--this is the tough one.  The Mets really failed to address rotation concerns this off-season.  Johan Santana was lit up regularly this spring, but you just know he's going to compete for the Cy Young this year.  After that, it's a game of who knows?  John Maine has one excuse after another.  I expect him to battle all year, and struggle a lot.  A 10-15 record would not surprise me with a 4.50 to 4.80 ERA.  Mike Pelfrey is the real wildcard--he looks great from a physical perspective, but his pitches were really flat this spring.  That could be a function of him working on stuff, or it could be that he's lost some of the sink on his fastball.  Regardless, I do think he is the most overcoached pitcher in the rotation.  Oliver Perez might be done.  With the spring he's had, the Mets might be wise to send him to AAA for a month--the issue is there aren't many other options other than to start him wit the big club--and hope for the best.  Jonathan Niese had a solid spring, and seems ready to resume what looks to be a promising big league career.  Expect at least 15% of the Mets starts to come from pitchers other than these five.
Verdict:  Status Quo

Bullpen. The Mets bullpen looks pretty strong to me right now.  Francisco Rodriguez is a gamer--yes he had some health issues, but he's had a really solid spring, and there's no reason to think his 2010 won't be anything short of outstanding.  The setup man job was won by default by Pedro Feliciano.  This is not great in that Felciano excelled at his specialist role and has for quite some time--he is death to lefty's and can pitch almost daily.  Takahashi seems like a great fit, and he will definitely get some starts mixed in with his long relief role.  Kiko Calero should get the final spot--he will become a fan favorite.  The other members of the bullpen, which could feature Jennry Mejia (60% chance of him making it per Adam Rubin), are a decent mix of talents that should provide Jerry Manuel with a lot of options.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Prediction. While the Mets aren't on anyone's radar scope as anything near a favorite, they are also much better than many of the fourth and fifth place finishes that are being spouted by various pundits.  The team is solid offensively, has a true Ace, a great closer, and there is serious potential lurking in that starting rotation.  The bench is the best the Mets have had in a while, and the bullpen is really stocked with arms of different flavors that could be a real difference-maker in many a close game.

Survey Says.....

86-76, third in the NL East, miss the playoffs by 3.5 games.

Ron Darling Sees and Explains Mike Pelfrey's Flaw

I spent a lazy Sunday afternoon watching the Mets.

To be fair, I did get up early and "spring clean" my entire backyard, and there are about 25 bags of junk next to the house to prove it. I also found a huge snake in the yard, which I put in a bucket and transported to a nearby woods vice killing.

But I digress.

The main reason I got up early to my work in, was so that I could watch Mike Pelfrey get his work in.

My work was done better.

Mike Pelfrey continues to struggle, especially in the giving up homeruns department.  I've been very puzzled as to why Big Pelf is giving up the flyballs and homeruns at such an alarming rate, and I chalked it up to rust or confidence, etc.

Then Ron Darling mentioned the grip, and everything clicked as to why Pelfrey has fared so poorly.

Pelfrey's fastballs were coming in laser straight and up, at times, with a nary a bit of sink to them. The issue has been there all spring.

Ron Darling, the thoughtful broadcaster who has forgotten more about pitching than most of us will ever know, told us why...and then we could actually see why for ourselves.

Darling pointed out that Pelfrey has worked hard on a splitter.  He then gave us some real insight by telling a story about his own development of the pitch. He spoke about muscle memory and how his finger's got so used to being separated that it was hard to get them to go back together. This resulted in his former bread and butter pitches not performing like they had before he worked on the splitter.

It was really riveting stuff, especially as he correlated the story beautifully to what's going on with Mike Pelfrey. As the cameras panned in on Pelf's fingers, we could actually see the separation (now that we knew exactly what to look for), and when they were apart, as Darling mentioned, the fastball came in straight. When the finger's were in the proper position, back together, the sink was back.

For a Sunday spring training game in March, it was some of the best on the spot analysis I've ever heard.

I'm sure Dan Warthen and Mike Pelfrey are aware of what's going on, and thanks to Ron Darling, the rest of us are too.

I just hope they get the issue resolved, and soon.

Mets Maine Worry

You won't hear it from the team...yet. You won't hear it from the management...yet. You will hear it from me...now.

I am extremely worried about Maine's arm...he might be shot, done, finito.

Thus far, his 2010 spring training has confirmed that he is not in form, and that the last two years of surgeries and disabled list rests from "shoulder fatigue" and other shoulder ailments may have removed the pain, but not brought back the stuff that made him a capable middle of the rotation starter.

During the off-season a contact I have with deep ties to the Mets organization warned me that "Maine is done" as a starter because "he has a dead arm." "A dead arm? Really?" I was incredulous.

"Yes, it's dead, and his stuff is gone," he reiterated. I didn't believe him and basically laughed him off.

After seeing what Maine is capable of thus far, I am not laughing anymore.

Saturday may tell us the rest of the story, and it will be, by far, the most important outing yet this spring.

John Maine Statistics

Career: Pitching
SEASON	TEAM	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	HLD	BLSV	ERA
2004	Bal	1	1	0	0	3.2	7	4	4	1	3	1	0	1	0	0	--	9.82
2005	Bal	10	8	0	0	40.0	39	30	28	8	24	24	2	3	0	0	--	6.30
2006	NYM	16	15	1	1	90.0	69	40	36	15	33	71	6	5	0	0	--	3.60
2007	NYM	32	32	1	1	191.0	168	90	83	23	75	180	15	10	0	0	--	3.91
2008	NYM	25	25	0	0	140.0	122	70	65	16	67	122	10	8	0	0	--	4.18
2009	NYM	15	15	0	0	81.1	67	42	40	8	38	55	7	6	0	0	--	4.43
Total	--	99	96	2	2	546.0	472	276	256	71	240	453	40	33	0	0	--	4.22

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Mets Days of Note

As the Mets long season winds down, it's time to look back at some interesting days on the calender, both from a team and player perspective:

May 10: Carlos Delgado's last game
May 10: Mets longest winning streak...7 games in a row
May 15: Mets last day in first place
May 19: Ryan Church misses third base and costs the Mets a win
May 20: Jose Reyes' last game
May 29: Last day Mike Pelfrey's ERA was under 4.00
May 31: Mets best record of the season...7 games over .500
June 4: Mets get swept by the Pirates
June 6: John Maine's last start before today
June 13: Luis Castillo drops game ending pop-up, Mets lose
June 28: Mets get swept by the Yankees
July 5: Mets get swept by the Phillies
July 25: Omir Santos' last homerun
August 7: Frankie Rodriguez' last blown save...he's converted 7 in a row
August 14: Bobby Parnell's last win...he's lost 4 in a row
August 20: Johan Santana's last start....seems like much longer ago
August 23: Luis Castillo's last stolen base
August 26: Mets longest losing streak...5 games
August 28: The last day Daniel "Eagle Eye" Murphy drew a walk...41 at-bats ago
September 10: Mets get swept by the Marlins

Team Win/Loss Splits

Overall
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
Overall	63	79	599	674	.444
Home/Road
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
Home	36	36	307	319	.500
Road	27	43	292	355	.386
Month by Month
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
April	9	12	96	97	.429
May	19	9	138	111	.679
June	9	18	108	146	.333
July	12	14	93	108	.462
August	10	19	117	151	.345
September	4	7	47	61	.364

Mets to Offer Free Surgery with Season Ticket Plan

The Mets have a new plan to bring their fans even closer to the action, but it comes with a price.

Just announced is the new "Dr Andrews Premium Plan."

Under the arrangement premium season ticket holders get their choice of arthroscopic surgery (knee, hip or shoulder), or an elbow cleanout.

"We feel this is the next logical step in the evolution of the Mets fan experience," said Fred Wilpon. "How better to get the feel of being a real New York Met than with some surgery by noted physician James Andrews?"

Sample packages include:

• Jose Reyes "Knee Deep in the Hoopla"
• John Maine Shoulder "Cool Cleanout"
• Carlos Delgado "Too Hip to be Square"
• Omar Minaya "Colon Cleanse" (* Diamond Prestige Level Only)
  

Wilpon went on to add, "Of course re-hab is extra and does not include your plane tickets to Port St Lucie."

David Wright to the Disabled List

With a big sigh, the Mets announced that All-Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger David Wright has been placed on the 15 day Disabled List.

The full story from my friend Ted Berg at Metsblog:

Omar Minaya announced after Sunday’s game that David Wright has been put on the 15-day DL with his head injury.

Minaya stressed that Wright wanted to stay with the club, but that after consulting with medical experts, the team decided it was in Wright’s best interest to rest.

Wright joins John Maine, Jon Niese, Fernando Nieve, J.J. Putz, Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado, Ramon Martinez, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Fernando Martinez on the Mets’ disabled list.

Missing Beltran: Enormous Impact

For all those Mets fans that still think Carlos Beltran isn't the most valuable member of the team, consider the following.

Since Carlos Beltran went on the DL:

The Mets have been shut out 3 times

The Mets have scored less than 3 runs 8 times

The Mets have scored 3 runs or less 10 times

That is a huge impact, and I for one believe it's causal despite the relatively small sample size (he's been on the DL 14 games).

Now here's the thing--I am telling you now to not give up hope.

We have to weather one more week of this and then...

Carlos Beltran comes back

Jose Reyes comes back

Ollie will be back this week, and I believe both John Maine and Carlos Delgado will be back within 3-4 weeks.

Then Putz....

Maybe Billy Wagner....

Pagan comes back soon to solidify the bench...

It is incredibly hard to be an optimist right now--and I'm not asking you for optimism--I am asking to not crucify this team right now...get to the break a few games out, and then let the health parade begin.

The Mets will win the division by 5 games.

Bookmark this and come back in late September.

I'll be here.