Our Homerun Problems are Back

I don't want to be the Debbie Downer of the bloggers, especially since the Mets are playing some inspired baseball of late.  That said, the offense is not anywhere close to where it needs to be, and I keep thinking that the house of cards can tumble down as quickly as it was raised this past week.

In a continuing theme, I'll once again look at homeruns as one indicator of offensive ability.

In March of last year, before the season began, I wrote a piece called "Jerry Has It Wrong on Power."  I wrote it because I was alarmed at the stance Jerry took on the offense during spring training in terms of how the Mets would generate enough runs to compete in the NL East.

In 2007 the team hit 177 homeruns and finished with an 88-74 record.  In 2008 the Mets hit 172 homeruns--124 homeruns in wins against only 48 homeruns in losses.  They finished second that year, with an 89-73 record. 

The 2008 homerun totals equate to  1.39 HR in each win against only .66 HR in a loss.

In 2009 the downward trend appeared, and the Mets had an awful season, finishing 70-92.  The Mets hit 95 homeruns total last year, 57 in their 70 wins against only 38 in their 92 losses.

This equates to  .81 HR in each win against only .41 HR in a loss.

And that brings us to 2010 and my worry of a repeat of an inability to have a sustained offense during the inevitable downturn in pitching.

The Mets are currently 24th in MLB in Hrs with only 13 on the season.

In their 10 wins they have 8 HRs.  In the 9 losses they have only 5.

This equated to .80 HR in each win against .55 HR in each loss.

Let's look at the last three seasons and see if there is a trend:

2008: 1.39 per W/.66 per L
2009: .81 per W/.41 per L
2010: .80 per W/.55 per L

It's a very simple level of analysis, but I believe it's worth paying attention to as the season progresses.

Bottom line is the sluggers need to slug, and they need to do so with some level of consistency.

The Mets starting pitching and bullpen have been very good thus far, but for the team to truly get to the next level, they need to channel their inner Kingman.