Brian Schneider: Just the Facts

In what I believe is a poor use of "statistical selection," Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News published a piece that pimped the stat work of another guy named Rubin (no relation, of course).

In the piece the writer asserts that the Mets bullpen problems were actually a catching problem, specifically a Brian Schneider problem.

The article publishes the following stats:

SANCHEZ caught by CASTRO 65 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=292
SCHNEIDER 108 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=454

HEILMAN caught by CASTRO 50 ABs , allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=340
SCHNEIDER 195 ABs, allows 9 HRs and OPP SLUG%=456

FELICIANO caught by CASTRO 36 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=306
SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=455

WAGNER caught by CASTRO 49 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=204
SCHNEIDER 99 ABs, allows 3 HRs and OPP SLUG%=313

SANTANA caught by CASTRO 333 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=297
SCHNEIDER 524 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=401

PEDRO M caught by CASTRO 138 ABs, allows 2 HRs and OPP SLUG%=377
SCHNEIDER 185 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=600!!!!!

Same phenomena holds with John Maine, Claudio Vargas and Nelson Figueroa. Fascinating, isn’t it?On the surface, these appear to be troubling numbers. After all, Schneider is the Mets starting catcher.

But as with most things, looking at all of the numbers provides a different result.

For example, we see no mention of Oliver Perez or several other Mets pitchers. How did they do with the two catchers?

How did Ollie fare with Schneider and Castro?

SCHNEIDER 472 ABs, allowed 16 HRs, .214 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.358
CASTRO 181 ABs, allowed 7 HRs, .262 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.450

Hmmmm, what about Schoeneweis?

SCHNEIDER 124 ABs, allowed 2 HRs, .226 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.323
CASTRO 47 ABs, allowed 4 HRs, .340 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.680

Even Joe Smith did better with Schneider:

SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allowed 3 HRs, .194 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.321
CASTRO 44 ABs, allowed 1 HR, .250 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.386

Now where were those stats in Adam Rubin's piece?

What about CERA? (Catcher's ERA)

CERA is the total ERA of all pitchers while the catcher was behind the plate.

Schneider at 4.13
Castro at 3.73

OK, edge to Castro, but both of the Mets catchers were in the top 1/3 of all big league catchers.

Caught Stealing was as follows:

Schneider at .333
Castro at .217

Edge to Schneider.

Schneider also has the edge in range factor and fielding percentage.

So while I really like Ramon Castro's game--he is the best backup catcher in the business--we shouldn't throw out Brian Schneider by picking random stats without looking at the whole situation.

A proper regression analysis using all available data would have been the right way to go. My guess is that study would have shown a marginal increase in performance with Ramon Castro at the dish. Unfortunately his body is not built for more than about 60 games a year.

Beginning the Love-Hate Relationship with Redding

Since we're now officially into Day 2 of the Tim Redding era with the NY Mets, let's start our love-hate relationship with him on the right foot.

Reasons to love him:

• Zero chance you'll have to buy your kid a Tim Redding jersey...he is saving you money
  
• He is a New Yorker. Tim Redding was born and raised in Rochester
• One of his kids is named Shea
• Has four pitches: change, curve, fastball, slider
• 7-3, 3.85 ERA, .258 BAA before the all-star break
• 182 innings last year, and the Mets need innings
• Relatively inexpensive, could shift to the bullpen as a long man
• 176 innings with a 119 ERA+ in 2003
• Doesn't walk a lot of batters
• 3-1, 3.41 ERA vs Phils in 2008
• First athlete to have his jersey retired by Monroe Community College

Reasons to hate him:

• He pitched for the Yankees
• Has four pitches--all of them are average
• 3-8, 6.82 ERA, .303 BAA after the all-star break
• He wasn't good enough to make the Washington Nationals out of spring training in 2007
• 0-6 with a 10.57 ERA in 2005
• Gives up a staggering amount of HRs (13 in his last 51 innings)
• Pitched 7 or more innings twice in 32 starts in 2008
• 1-4, 7.76 ERA vs Marlins in 2008
• Not really a bargain at $2.25M with incentives

So all in all we have a few more reasons to love Tim Redding than to hate him.

Sure he's no Pedro, he's not really good, he's never had a plus pitch, or pitched in the postseason, but he's a Met....sort of.

So let's bottom line this thing:

The Mets are not winning a championship trotting Tim Redding out there every 5th day. We have a pretty big sample size out of him in 7 big league seasons, and the vast majority of his career, including the second half of 2008, has been marginal to awful (and I'm being kind), but he could help...at least Omar thinks so.

My hope? That he loses the 5th starter spot, but still helps the team...Omar Minaya has stated that he plans on having 7-8 candidates for the 5 starting spots and he wants it to be a competition.

Given that Redding pretty much has a roster spot guaranteed at that money, he could surprise us as the long man/spot starter....that's the hope anyway.

Don't you wish you had your jersey retired from Monroe Community College?

I need coffee....Tim Redding is a Met....holy crap......Love, Hate.....

Are You in the Pedro or Redding Camp?

It's been a fun off-season to be a Mets fan.

First we had the KRod signing--quick, to the point, Mets get their man, fair contract, etc. Good times.

Then, on December 10th, Omar came off the top rope and put together a trade that netted JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed. Yes we lost Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas and Endy Chavez, but overall it was a brilliant move.

Mets fans will love Sean Green....trust me on this.

Lately all us blogger types have been vacillating on which free agent starting pitchers the Mets will (or won't) sign, what the contracts will (or won't) be, which teams are (or aren't) involved, and more.

While that's all well and good, let's take a look at a "potential" 5th starter and see where the two stack up. Both men have their fans and their detractors, so the conversation, I hope, will center around past performance as a measure of potential in 2009.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Martinez #45 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
5.61	5-6	87	1.57

Full Name Pedro Jaime Martinez Birth Date October 25, 1971 Birth Place Manoguayabo, Dominican Republic Weight 193 lbs.

Height 5-11 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 16 years

College Ohio Dominican Salary 2008: $11,813,351

Tim Redding #17 SP

2008 STATS
ERA	W-L	SO	WHIP
4.95	10-11	120	1.43

Full Name Timothy James Redding Birth Date February 12, 1978 Birth Place Rochester, NY Weight 218 lbs.

Height 6-0 Bats Right Throws Right Experience 6 years

Drafted 20th round draft pick Salary 2008: $1,000,000

OK, this doesn't tell us much--we know Pedro had a rough 2008--injuries, death of his father, came back from rehab, not much pop on his fastball.

Redding had the second best year of his career. He pitched a solid 182 innings and was something of a workhorse for a terrible Nationals team.

Let's dive a bit deeper in the stats.

Pedro:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
As Starter	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	432	70	127	25	1	19	64	44	6	87	15	2	.294	.359	.488	.847
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.00	1	3	0	0	8	8	0	45.0	41	27	25	5	22	33	.244
Away	6.05	4	3	0	0	12	12	0	64.0	86	43	43	14	22	54	.326
Day	4.07	2	1	0	0	6	6	0	31.0	34	15	14	1	10	19	.283
Night	6.23	3	5	0	0	14	14	0	78.0	93	55	54	18	34	68	.298
Grass	5.62	5	6	0	0	20	20	0	109.0	127	70	68	19	44	87	.294
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	230	44	70	13	0	11	39	23	3	42	7	0	.304	.366	.504	.871
vs. Right	202	26	57	12	1	8	25	21	3	45	8	2	.282	.351	.470	.821
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
July	4.40	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	14.1	13	7	7	4	7	13	.232
April	10.80	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3.1	4	4	4	2	1	1	.308
June	6.67	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	27.0	38	21	20	2	10	20	.330
August	3.83	2	1	0	0	7	7	0	42.1	41	19	18	9	14	33	.263
September	7.77	0	3	0	0	4	4	0	22.0	31	19	19	2	12	20	.337
Pre-All Star	6.25	3	2	0	0	9	9	0	44.2	55	32	31	8	18	34	.299
Post-All Star	5.18	2	4	0	0	11	11	0	64.1	72	38	37	11	26	53	.290

Redding:

2008 Pitching Splits
Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
As Starter	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	709	110	195	40	1	27	93	65	7	120	13	7	.275	.338	.449	.786
By Breakdown	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Home	5.61	6	7	0	0	18	18	0	94.2	117	67	59	15	30	55	.305
Away	4.23	4	4	0	0	15	15	1	87.1	78	43	41	12	35	65	.240
Day	3.44	3	1	0	0	6	6	1	36.2	36	15	14	3	9	25	.261
Night	5.33	7	10	0	0	27	27	0	145.1	159	95	86	24	56	95	.278
Grass	4.95	10	11	0	0	33	33	1	182.0	195	110	100	27	65	120	.275
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	358	54	99	25	1	13	47	38	2	54	8	3	.277	.346	.461	.807
vs. Right	351	56	96	15	0	14	46	27	5	66	5	4	.274	.329	.436	.765
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	3.55	3	2	0	0	6	6	0	33.0	25	19	13	4	14	22	.203
May	3.86	3	1	0	0	6	6	0	35.0	33	16	15	4	14	22	.250
June	5.19	0	0	0	0	6	6	0	34.2	42	21	20	5	9	21	.296
July	4.82	1	3	0	0	5	5	1	28.0	38	15	15	1	5	19	.339
August	5.46	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	28.0	31	17	17	8	11	19	.277
September	7.71	1	3	0	0	5	5	0	23.1	26	22	20	5	12	17	.295
Post-All Star	6.82	3	8	0	0	13	13	1	67.1	80	53	51	14	27	45	.303
Pre-All Star	3.85	7	3	0	0	20	20	0	114.2	115	57	49	13	38	75	.258

Hmmmm, several flags for both.

Redding had a solid start to his season: 3.85 ERA, .257 BAA, 6-3 in April and May. But look at the rest of the season--he reverted back to "Redding normal", which is a pitcher who has trouble getting out of his own way.

ERA in the last 4 months of the season: 5.19, 4.82, 5.46, 7.71. That is awful. He finished the year with a pitiful 89 ERA+, which is one point higher than his career ERA+. How about 13 HRs allowed in his last 51 innings pitched? Flag!

And what of Pedro? We all saw his fastball topping out between 87 and 89 mph, with the very occassional low 90s on the gun. His pitches were up, he didn't have the same control, and his motion looked different.

The number aren't pretty either. 7.77 ERA in September when the team needed him most, a .326 BAA on the road, etc.

So play GM--which man would you prefer if it comes down to one of them for the 5th spot?

My money is still on Pedro--I've just never been a fan of Redding, and he was awful last year after May. Pedro actually had a very good August, and I believe that is the pitcher he is capable of being in 2009.

If Redding decides to take the Mets offer, and we haven't heard the details, hopefully Pedro will come to camp and fight.

Pedro wants to be a Met, and as this excellent article in the NY Post points out, he has some unfinished business.

At the end of the day I still trust Pedro a heck of a lot more than Tim Redding.

Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez and the $150M Budget

Walk with me for a minute Mets fans.

First, let's take a stroll through Citi Field. My apologies for the weather.

Look at the fences...look at the dimensions...look at the beautiful architecture.

Is this a dream? Are Mets fans really deserving of all this largess?

Now close your eyes for a moment....think of the warm Florida breezes in February and March. Think about the hiss of the fastball and the popping of the glove. The crack as bat meets ball. The infield and dugout chatter. Now picture opening day and a beautiful 2009 in this new cathedral in Queens.

They are the sweet sounds and smells of baseball.

Now think about a Mets starting rotation of:

Johan Santana
Derek Lowe
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey

How truly wonderful would that be? Could it be a reality? If so, what would it take? Think about that rotation, together, for the next 3+ years.

Can the Mets afford to add another $25M to the payroll? Didn't they have a ton of money come off the books from the $138M they spent last year?

Haven't they lost the services of Pedro Martinez and his $12M a year? Moises Alou at $7.5M a year? El Duque at $7M a year? Jorge Sosa and his $2M a year? Scott Schoeneweis and his $3.6M a year?

Sure they locked down KRod and JJ Putz, and that cost $18M a year, but is there not room for more?

Was $138M last year really the most the Mets will spend?

If you could have those 5 starters--3 power pitchers, 3 righty's and 2 lefty's, a wonderful mix of youth and prime, fastballs, slider, curveballs, changeups and sinkers, locked up for 3+ years, would you do it? Could you do it? Should you do it?

The answer is yes, and the possibility is more real than the papers would have you believe.

Mets Morning Musings: The Rumor Mill

There are a lot of Mets rumors out there right now, and some of them are written as facts. It seems as if every tidbit that one writer generates causes every other writer and blogger to go into copycat mode immediately.

Some of these folks are friends of mine, so any criticism is not a calling out per se, but rather a look at the state of affairs in the world of Mets Blogospheres.

To whit: Ken Davidoff, a very good reporter, writes, "Confident Mets Will Not Raise Offer to Lowe, source says." The headline purports to have some very inside information. But wait, what is this source that Ken has? See if you can glean it from the only reference made to him/her in Davidoff's piece.

"The Mets, confident that they have no serious competition for Derek Lowe's services, do not intend to raise their three-year, $36-million offer to the righthander at this time, a person informed of the club's thinking told Newsday."

Wait a minute, a "person informed of the club's thinking"? What does that even mean? Who is this mystery "person informed of the clubs thinking"?

If you read Davidoff's piece, I guess that all of us are now "people informed of the clubs thinking."

But there's more--Newsday's Kat O'Brien, yes the same paper Ken Davidoff writes for, had this piece only yesterday, "Mets Talks with Lowe to Heat Up!"

I guess Ken and Kat forgot to compare notes, or maybe Kat wasn't invited to coffee at the diner with Ken and the "person informed of the cubs thinking."

Hey Kat, read Ken's piece--now you're also informed.

What do I think? The Mets are big time in the hunt for Lowe, and there is wiggle room above 3 years and $36M. Just how much is what no one knows, not even a "person informed of the clubs thinking".

Boras Bingo, Derek Lowe and the Mets

One thing is clear about Scott Boras: nothing's changed.

For those that saw Omar Minaya interviewed on the new MLB Network, it's clear that he is in deep thought about his starting pitching options and the weak free agent crop.

This much is known: Derek Lowe is his #1 target, Omar and the Mets have a price in mind, and Scott Boras has quite another price in mind for his client.

To date the Mets have offerred $36M over 3 years. Boras wants $16M a year, for at least 4 years, for his client and "claims" to have several teams interested in that price point.

I say, "Bullshit".

MLB market reality points to a scenario in which Derek Lowe might get $14M a year for 4 years, but at his age the 4th year is quite the sticking point with basically all of the remaining clubs that have shown an interest for his services.

In this morning's NY Daily News, the headline blares, "Mets may miss out on Lowe!" It's as if the club most likely to sign the starter is suddenly out of the running because Boras is doing his job in trying to maximize the contract for his client.

The facts say otherwise.

1. This is a business, and businessmen are doing the negotiating.
2. The sides aren't as far apart as it seems.
3. Both Boras and the Mets are being patient, as they should.

If Boras, as he claims, truly had an offer close to what he's seeking for Lowe, he'd have already jumped at it. The Phils, a team Boras has leaked as a likely suitor, simply don't need Lowe for that money. They have 4 great starters locked up and a slew of arms competing for the 5th spot.

The Mets will land Lowe, of that I'm certain. It will just take a bit more time, a bit more Boras Bingo, and a bit more money.

3 years at $42M guaranteed and a club option 4th year for $16M is the most likely scenario.

It's just a matter of time.

Meet the Mets!

Feeling the winter and post holiday blues?

Well, please enjoy this video of the greatest sports theme song ever with a veritable plethora of wonderful scenes from the Mets early days.

The best part is at the end we hear the venerable Bob Murphy announcing the starting lineups for the Mets very first game. You'll chuckle when he says, "Felix Maaaan-teee-ya"...man, I miss the Murph!

And remember: pitchers and catchers next month!

Remaining Free Agents and the Mets

We all know the names: Lowe, Garland, Dunn, Manny, Abreu, Wolf, Perez, Redding.

So who fits for the Mets, and who doesn't?

Our friend Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated just finished a piece handicapping the remaining free agents.

Jon racks and stacks them as follows:

1. Bobby Abreu, OF
2. Milton Bradley, OF/DH
3. Pat Burrell, OF/DH.
4. Orlando Cabrera, SS.
5. Joe Crede, 3B
6. Adam Dunn, OF
7. Jon Garland, SP.
8. Jason Giambi, DH/1B.
9. Orlando Hudson, 2B.
10. Derek Lowe, SP.
11. Oliver Perez, SP
12. Andy Pettitte, SP.
13. Manny Ramirez, OF.
14. Ben Sheets, SP
15. Jason Varitek, C.
16. Randy Wolf, SP.
17. Garret Anderson, OF
18. Freddy Garcia, SP
19. Cliff Floyd, DH
20. Tim Redding, SP.

It's an interesting list, and many of the names have been bandied about as possibilities for the Mets.

We rank the ones that could most help the Mets as follows:

1. Oliver Perez, SP: Very high on Ollie. Strikeout pitcher, hitting his prime, aces against the Phils lefty lineup, and wants the ball in tough spots. He's young, he's lefty, and he's nasty. $$$$
2. Derek Lowe, SP: Innings eater who throws ground balls. Seems like the perfect fit for this team, at this time. He's older, but has a great motion and body type for longevity. $$$$
3. Manny Ramirez, OF: Not gonna happen, but just think if it could. Manny in left field for 2 years would make this lineup as good as any in baseball, plus we'd all get to enjoy his fielding. $$$$$
4. Jon Garland, SP: Guaranteed to start 32+ games and throw 200 innings. Battler, pitches to contact, but gets the job done. Would slot well to the #4 in this rotation. $$$
5. Orlando Hudson, 2B: Worth the price of admission to see him and Reyes in the same infield. Very capable hitter who gets on base and makes things happen. If it weren't for Castillo, Hudson would already be a Met. $$$
6. Adam Dunn, OF: Has his flaws, but also his strengths. Big power with a keen eye. Not a great RBI man, but in a stacked lineup he could have the best year of his career. Average fielder. Omar is not a fan. $$$$
7. Ben Sheets, SP: Has great stuff, but the injury worry is there. Surprising lack of interest in this excellent pitcher. Someone is going to get a relative bargain. $$$$
8. Randy Wolf, SP: I'm not a fan. Had a very nice 2008, but before that had four consecutive years of 18 starts or less. $$$

I still believe Lowe will be a Met, but there's a good chance that more than one name from Heyman's list gets added in the next two weeks.

MLB Network is Here...and We Love It!

The diehard baseball fanatics that were amongst the 50 million subscribers that witnessed the debut of MLB Network were treated to some great baseball chatter and the broadcast of one of the seminal games in baseball history.

Coupling familiar faces such as Al Leiter and Harold Reynolds, with some classic broadcasts of the past and news of the day was enough for this baseball blogger to give the new network a big "thumbs-up."

My only wish is they would have done this sooner.

About MLB Network

Overall:

• MLB Network will launch on January 1, 2009 in approximately 50 million homes as the largest network debut in cable history
• MLB Network will air live games, original programming, highlights, classic games, and coverage of baseball events
• The MLB Network studio is located at 40 Hartz Way, Suite 10, Secaucus NJ, 07094
• Named to honor Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth, "Studio 3" and "Studio 42" total 15,200 square feet, including 9,600 square feet for Studio 42 alone.
• Every video display in both studios will be fully native HD, as will all video produced at the studios.

Studio 3:

• Named to honor Babe Ruth, Studio 3 will be the primary home of the live nightly studio show, MLB Tonight.
• Measuring 5,600 square feet, Studio 3 features 62 video displays, including a 30x7-foot rear projection screen, 108" and 103" monitors, as well as a Perceptive Pixel touch screen display, which will allow MLB Network personalities to interact with and change graphics and images on-screen.
• The studio will feature a desk that can rotate to various stations and includes six distinct broadcast areas, including a balcony, stat center, and interview area.
• The ceiling is ringed by backlit logos of all 30 MLB teams and the entire studio features lighting that can be altered to give it the feel of day or night.

Studio 42:

• Named to honor Jackie Robinson, Studio 42 measures 9,600 square feet, and will be used as a demonstration center by MLB Network's on-air talent.
• Studio 42 is designed to be a replica baseball field, featuring a half-scale infield made of field turf measuring 45 feet from base to base and a pitcher's mound 30 feet from home plate that can be moved back for more realistic demonstrations.
• The studio also features a replica outfield wall, complete with padding, brick designs, three different seating areas that can hold up to 173 people, and an out-of-town scoreboard modeled after the scoreboard at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which will be updated in real-time.

Executives and On-Air Talent:

• President and CEO: Tony Petitti
• Studio Hosts: Matt Vasgersian, Victor Rojas
• Analysts: Al Leiter, Joe Magrane, Harold Reynolds
• Reporters: Trenni Kusnierek, Hazel Mae

2009 Hall of Fame Ballot: Time to Right Some Wrongs

I was over at the Mets website this morning over a nice cup of coffee and read the article on Mo Vaughn's addition to the HoF ballot.

While I don't believe Vaughn has any chance whatsoever of enshrinement to Cooperstown, there are a few guys on this list who I feel are overdue: Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven.

An 8-time All-Star, Rice was a feared slugger that hit for average. He drove in 100 or more runs 8 times in his 14 full seasons and finished with a lifetime .298 batting average and 2,452 hits.

Last year Rice was named on 72.2% of the ballots, just a few votes shy of the 75% he needs to gain entry into the hallowed hall. This year is his year.

Bert Blyleven's case for the Hall of Fame sets baseball people into a tizzy--half think it's ludicrous that he hasn't already gained entry, while the other half point to a pitcher who had "stat compiler" numbers that aren't enough to push him over the edge. They will say, "It isn't the Hall of Very Good."

Both groups have their points, but please put me into the more gentile and sophisticated group that thinks he belongs.

Blyleven, 16 years after he retired, is still:

5th all-time in strikeouts
9th all-time in shutouts
14th all-time in innings pitched
27th all-time in wins

Couple that with a superb 3.31 lifetime ERA and 3-1 K to BB ratio and he is clearly deserving of entry. Moreover, he completed 242 of the 682 games he started, and threw 60 shutouts. Put another way, Blyleven threw a complete game once every 2.8 starts, and a shutout once every 11.4 starts over a 22-year career.

For all those who don't think Blyleven belongs, I'll only ask you to compare him to Catfish Hunter, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry and Don Drysdale and see where you think he stacks up.

So we have one shoo-in, Ricky Henderson, and a whole bunch of "maybe's", including Lee Smith, Andre Dawson and Tim Raines--but those players should wait and the votes from the BBWA should put Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame.

Let the booing, hissing, and egg-throwing begin.

2009 candidates
• Harold Baines
• Jay Bell
• Bert Blyleven
• David Cone
• Andre Dawson
• Ron Gant
• Mark Grace
• Rickey Henderson
• Tommy John
• Don Mattingly
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Jesse Orosco
• Dave Parker
• Dan Plesac
• Tim Raines
• Jim Rice
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammell
• Greg Vaughn
• Mo Vaughn
• Matt Williams

Warming to the Idea of Jon Garland

Mets need pitching, and there just aren't a lot of options.

If I were King, my priorities would be, in order:

Oliver Perez: 4 years at $52M
Derek Lowe: 3 years at $42M
Jon Garland: 3 years at $25M (incentives to $30M)
Braden Looper: 2 years at $14M

That's my rack and stack and what I think would get the deals done. Unfortunately, there just aren't many quality FA starting pitchers out there this year.

You know why I only like those 4?

Innings--all four of these starters go out and put up at or near 200 innings year after year.

The rest of the FA list is all over the place--very up and down, with injury histories throughout.

The Mets should spend money smartly on someone who will be able to take the mound every 5th day...we were burned by Pedro, sadly, and it just puts a huge amount of pressure on a team when you have starters go down for any length of time. We see this all over baseball--Mark Prior, Carl Pavano and on and on and on. Losing a starting pitcher is one of the most damaging things that can happen to a team in the pennant hunt.

People mock inning counts, but to me it is one of the best measuring sticks for a starting pitcher.

A starting pitcher who goes 200 innings year after year after year is a very, very valuable resource--it takes pressure off the bullpen, takes pressure off of the other starters, and it keeps the team grinding throughout the long season by not disrupting flow and momentum.

How many times last year did the Mets go into panic mode because yet another unknown entity was taking the hill in a key game? How much pressure did it put on middle relief, and then the domino affect into the closers and even the offense?

So yes Mets fans, I'm warming to the idea of Jon Garland, much to the chagrin of several of my fellow bloggers.

Sure, he was semi-bad last year on a good team, but let's go back to his 2007 splits:

RH: .281 BA, .315 OBP, .426 Slg
LH: .259 BA, .321 OBP, .401 Slg

That's pretty good....and yes, he threw 208.3 innings with a 112 ERA+ in 2007.

And again, going back to my requirement for an innings-eater, he certainly fits the bill.

Over the last 7 years, he has started 33 games twice, and 32 games 5 times. During that stretch, his innings counts were:

193 IP
192 IP
217 IP
221 IP
211 IP
208 IP
197 IP

Let's bottom line this: 10.5% of all Mets starts last year (17 to be exact) came from Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Jon Niese, Brian Stokes and Tony Armas.

The Mets must make a reliable innings-eating starter a priority. If not Derek Lowe, Jon Garland is the most reliable guy out there.

Pretty scary, no?

Derek Lowe Will Sign With the Mets...I Think

I've been chuckling a bit at the Derek Lowe "saga".

Bottom line is this: there is a limited market for Lowe, and the Mets made an obviously lowball offer for him, so there is a next step, and a counter-step, and a final step.

So what's next? It will happen as follows...

A little Scott Boras newspaper bingo, a little "he said, we said", and then a deal is made.

The deal will most likely look as follows: 3 years, with $42M guaranteed, and a club option 4th year at $16M for a total of 4 years and $58M if all pans out.

The Mets "get their guy", Boras, "get his deal", and everyone leaves happy.

Look for it to happen next week....I think.

Happy New Year!