David Wright and K's: It's Gotten Ridiculous

Forget all of the over-analyzing, the stance, the swing, the voices inside his head, his eyesight, etc.

At this point there is only one cure for David Wright and that is himself.  Start with baby steps of just making contact each at-bat and go from there.

That appears to be what Jason Bay is attempting, and while Bay is not exactly tearing the cover off the ball, he is not flailing away as much as he had been previously either.

Moving Reyes back to leadoff and Wright back to third is a start, and the rest is up to him.

David Wright in May:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
May 1	@PHI	L 10-0	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.427	.513	.940	.275
May 2	@PHI	L 11-5	4	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	.421	.536	.957	.274
May 3	@CIN	L 3-2	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.420	.528	.948	.281
May 4	@CIN	W 5-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	.414	.548	.962	.280
May 5	@CIN	L 5-4	5	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	1	.413	.571	.984	.286
May 7	SF	W 6-4	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	.416	.564	.980	.287
May 8	SF	W 5-4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	.415	.548	.963	.279
May 9	SF	L 6-5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	.400	.528	.928	.269
May 10	WAS	L 3-2	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.403	.527	.930	.277
May 11	WAS	W 8-6	4	2	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.417	.552	.969	.293
May 12	WAS	L 6-4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	.419	.542	.961	.288
May 13	@FLA	L 2-1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.408	.525	.933	.279
May 14	@FLA	L 7-2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.404	.512	.916	.272
Monthly Totals			45	6	13	3	0	3	6	6	20	1	3	.365	.556	.921	.289

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First Pitch Frenchy is Back

Jeff Francoeur is in a slump--that's actually putting it mildly.

Frenchy is oh for his last 25, and is swinging at the first pitch in over half his at-bats during that time.

For proof of this we only need to look at the stats.  After seeing almost 4 pitches per plate appearance over the first week of the season, he is now at 3.07 pitcher per PA for 2010, seeing less than 3 pitches per PA during this slump.

The 3.07 is lower than his woeful career average of 3.38, and much less than the MLB average of 3.78.

His actual first swing percentage on the year is 46%, compared to 28% for the rest of baseball.  And again, prior to the slump he was in the mid-30s, meaning his is swinging at almost 60% of first pitches over the past few games.

That is unacceptable.

I would rather see him come to bat 4 times in a game and not take the bat off his shoulder than continue to flail at the first offering and make out after out.

He needs a day off and a smack in the ass.

Games through April 21, 2010
DATE	OPP	RESULT	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Apr 5	FLA	W 7-1	2	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	.500	1.000	1.500	.500
Apr 7	FLA	L 7-6	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.444	.500	.944	.333
Apr 8	FLA	L 3-1	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.462	.600	1.062	.400
Apr 9	WAS	W 8-2	4	2	2	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	.471	1.000	1.471	.429
Apr 10	WAS	L 4-3	4	1	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.500	.944	1.444	.444
Apr 11	WAS	L 5-2	3	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	.538	1.000	1.538	.476
Apr 13	@COL	L 11-3	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.500	.880	1.380	.440
Apr 14	@COL	L 6-5	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	.514	.929	1.443	.429
Apr 15	@COL	W 5-0	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.513	.875	1.388	.438
Apr 16	@STL	L 4-3	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.535	.857	1.392	.457
Apr 17	@STL	W 2-1	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	.451	.714	1.165	.381
Apr 18	@STL	L 5-3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.436	.667	1.103	.356
Apr 19	CHC	W 6-1	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.407	.612	1.019	.327
Apr 20	CHC	W 4-0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.381	.566	.947	.302
Apr 21	CHC	L 9-3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.358	.526	.884	.281
Monthly Totals			53	11	16	3	1	3	8	8	6	0	0	.381	.566	.947	.302
			AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS	AVG
Totals			57	11	16	3	1	3	8	8	6	0	0	.358	.526	.885	.281

Chris Carpenter Owns Jason Bay

Tonight's Cards starter is Chris Carpenter, who was hit around in his previous start this year.

Looking over the Mets roster against Carpenter, one thing really stuck out--Jason Bay can't touch him.

Bay is 2 for 26 lifetime against Carpenter with a staggering 12 Ks.  Those numbers indicate this may have been a good night for Bay to start the game on the bench, but he's in there. 

Let's hope Jason finds something and provides some production.

Current Mets vs Chris Carpenter:

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gary Matthews	14	12	6	1	0	0	3	1	1	0.500	0.500	0.583	1.083
Rod Barajas	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.400	0.600	1.000
Luis Castillo	28	23	7	1	1	0	0	2	0	0.304	0.360	0.435	0.795
Jeff Francoeur	10	10	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.300	0.300	0.600	0.900
Oliver Perez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.500
Alex Cora	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.400	0.250	0.650
David Wright	9	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.222	0.222	0.222	0.444
Henry Blanco	15	14	3	0	0	0	2	1	4	0.214	0.267	0.214	0.481
Jose Reyes	7	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.167	0.286	0.167	0.452
Fernando Tatis	11	11	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	0.091	0.091	0.091	0.182
Jason Bay	29	26	2	0	0	1	2	3	12	0.077	0.172	0.192	0.365
Johan Santana	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Total	144	131	29	3	1	2	11	8	30	0.221	0.270	0.305	0.575

Chris Carter: Mr Marpril

We know Reggie Jackson was Mr October, and looking at the stats, there is no question that Chris Carter is Mr March and April, or "Mr Marpril".

His Spring numbers the last three years are gaudy...in fact they're downright fantastic.

Two years ago Carter had a very nice spring, finishing with an .893 OPS and hitting .371...at the time I'm sure he was convinced the big leagues were right around the corner.  He did get his September cup of coffee, and he responded well to the challenge, hitting .333 in 18 at-bats.

A year ago Carter came to camp on a mission and slugged to the tune of a 1.038 OPS, which led to him breaking camp with the big club.  Unfortunately, he only lasted 4 games with the Red Sox for a total of 5 at-bats.

Not to be deterred, Carter dutifully went to AAA Pawtucket and put up yet another outstanding year offensively.

Which brings us to 2010--and the Mets--and Spring Training--and Carter--and...

Another amazing spring, only this time it's even better.  Carter is sporting an off-the-charts 1.621 OPS--that's like Pujols on Steroids (figure of speech Albert, don't cry).

The question for Carter is what will be the outcome of another spring in which he is basically the best hitter in camp?

Right now he seems to the clear "26th man" in the minds of Mets management and destined to shuffle off to Buffalo.  It's a shame, because he certainly has the type of bat that could help the club.

CHRIS CARTER SPRING TRAINING STATS -- LAST THREE SEASONS

	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	TB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	GO/AO
2008	BOS	16	35	4	13	18	5	0	0	6	1	0	5	0	0	.371	.378	.514	.893	0.29
2008	CIN	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	2.00
2009	BOS	28	76	15	27	50	5	0	6	11	2	0	12	0	0	.355	.380	.658	1.038	1.38
2010	NYM	9	13	5	5	15	1	0	3	8	2	0	2	0	0	.385	.467	1.154	1.621	0.20

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Jeff Francoeur is Optimistic...I Agree (a little)

The always excellent Kevin Kernan has a nice piece on Jeff Franceur's optimism going forward for 2010.

Francoeur has been something of a tough case for Mets fans, especially those of us who like more advanced stats.

The good: Francoeur was a very welcome shot in the arm when he came over late last year...he's like a permanent 5-hour energy drink. He also has the ability to relax those around him, plays decent (albeit overrated) defense, and he certainly has life in the bat. Lastly, he is extremely durable, can go out there every day and hits lefty's like an all-star.

The bad: It all centers around his inability to get on base. Francoeur has a lifetime .311 OBP in almost 3,000 big league plate appearances.

So why should we be as optimistic as Francoeur?

First off, he has steadily cut down on his Ks.

In the past 4 seasons his K numbers have showed a steady decline: 132, 129, 111, 92

His SO% has decreased in each of his 5 big league campaigns: 21,2%, 19.2%, 18.5%, 17.0%, 14.6%

What hasn't changed, however, are the key stats that lead to a decent on-base percentage.

His pitches per plate appearance have remained steady at around 3.4 per plate appearance. It's pretty tough to take walks with those numbers, but more importantly, Francoeur doesn't allow himself enough patience to wait on the most hittable pitch in an at-bat.

So the optimism must remain "cautious" at this point. Francoeur did make better contact with the Mets than he had in previous Brave campaigns. His batting average and slugging jumped by leaps and bounds, and he certainly looked aggressive and confident at the plate.

If Howard Johnson's work, and Francoer's maturity, can harness the talent into a 25 HR, 90 RBI, .330 OBP type of player, than it is a win all around.

Francoeur is never going to get on base a ton--this we know--what we want is for him to get on base "enough" while providing a solid presence in the lower half of the lineup.

I am optimistic about that.

A Tatis/Murphy Platoon Makes Sense

The more I think about Tatis coming back, the more inclined I am to like the idea based on the statistical evidence before us.

First off, Tatis, who had a dreadful first 2/3rds of a season in 2009, hit very well in August and September.

In August he hit .310 with an .811 OPS, and in September he hit .353 with an .883 OPS (he was 4 for 8 in October as well).

His overall splits were:

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	133	16	37	9	3	3	19	15	4	25	0	1	.278	.364	.459	.823
vs. Right	207	26	59	12	1	5	29	7	5	29	4	0	.285	.321	.425	.746
Home	172	23	48	8	2	5	27	14	6	27	2	1	.279	.352	.436	.788
Away	168	19	48	13	2	3	21	8	3	27	2	0	.286	.324	.440	.764
Day	107	23	37	5	0	5	21	7	4	18	4	0	.346	.397	.533	.930
Night	233	19	59	16	4	3	27	15	5	36	0	1	.253	.311	.395	.706
Grass	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	11	2	6	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	.545	.500	.727	1.227
April	23	6	8	1	1	1	2	2	1	3	2	0	.348	.407	.609	1.016
May	66	8	15	3	0	1	9	2	4	4	0	1	.227	.288	.318	.606
June	60	5	14	3	1	0	6	6	1	5	0	0	.233	.313	.317	.630
July	48	7	11	4	0	4	8	2	2	10	1	0	.229	.288	.563	.851
August	84	8	26	5	2	1	11	6	1	22	0	0	.310	.359	.452	.811
September	51	6	18	4	0	1	10	4	0	10	0	0	.353	.393	.490	.883
October	8	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.500	.625	1.125
Pre All-Star	173	24	43	9	2	4	20	11	8	15	3	1	.249	.320	.393	.713
Post All-Star	167	18	53	12	2	4	28	11	1	39	1	0	.317	.359	.485	.844

If you look at his numbers vs lefty's, the picture becomes even clearer: a decent .278 BA, .364 OBP, and .823 OPS, and that includes the numbers from his putrid May, June and July.

Similarly, Daniel Murphy had a horrendous May, June and July, and it seemed to click for him a little bit in August and September, especially in the power department.

Murph had a very respectable .556 Slg % in September, though he hardly walked at all during the entire season.

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	94	10	21	6	0	4	14	6	0	19	1	0	.223	.267	.415	.682
vs. Right	414	50	114	32	4	8	49	32	0	50	3	2	.275	.324	.430	.754
Home	248	30	73	22	4	7	33	12	0	30	2	0	.294	.323	.500	.823
Away	260	30	62	16	0	5	30	26	0	39	2	2	.238	.304	.358	.662
Day	180	21	47	12	2	4	29	16	0	23	3	1	.261	.318	.417	.735
Night	328	39	88	26	2	8	34	22	0	46	1	1	.268	.311	.433	.744
Grass	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	15	1	5	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.600	.933
April	68	13	22	2	1	1	7	6	0	6	1	0	.324	.373	.426	.799
May	68	8	12	3	0	3	10	10	0	8	0	1	.176	.278	.353	.631
June	75	7	18	3	0	1	7	7	0	10	0	0	.240	.298	.320	.618
July	84	9	21	9	0	1	11	9	0	17	1	0	.250	.323	.393	.716
August	113	9	33	11	1	1	11	3	0	18	1	1	.292	.308	.434	.742
September	90	13	25	9	2	4	15	3	0	9	1	0	.278	.298	.556	.854
October	10	1	4	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.400	.400	.800	1.200
Pre All-Star	242	30	60	11	1	5	28	25	0	30	1	1	.248	.314	.364	.678
Post All-Star	266	30	75	27	3	7	35	13	0	39	3	1	.282	.313	.485	.798

You'll notice that his numbers against RH pitching are much better than his numbers vs LH'ers. Moreover, his 20 doubles in 203 August/September at bats is simply outstanding.

If we combine Tatis against LH and Murph against RH using their 2009 splits we can forecast a worse case "player" with about a .280 BA, .350 OBP, and .450 Slg % and 15 HRs and 80 RBIs.

While those numbers are still very average compared to most first basemen in the league, they are not terrible.

I think the two players will actually outperform their 2009 seasons based on the end of season trends, and they can very easily attain a combined 20 HR and 90 RBI season and get on base enough times with gap power to make a decent contribution.

That is good enough.

Adam LaRoche Stats

UPDATE: LaRoche to the Braves for Kotchman.

Nothing official, but the rumors are out there. While we wait, let's check out Mr LaRoche (and no we're not getting into the Beltran thing here).

Nice power bat and hits righty's well--I like Murphy, but at this point LaRoche is a big power upgrade that adds value for the Mets miracle run......still, it's Adam LaRoche.

My thoughts are this would not be a bad move to make, but it's also pretty unnecessary if Delgado truly is two weeks away.

Career: Batting
SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	Atl	110	324	45	90	27	1	13	45	27	78	0	0	.278	.333	.488	.821
2005	Atl	141	451	53	117	28	0	20	78	39	87	0	2	.259	.320	.455	.775
2006	Atl	149	492	89	140	38	1	32	90	55	128	0	2	.285	.354	.561	.915
2007	Pit	152	563	71	153	42	0	21	88	62	131	1	1	.272	.345	.458	.803
2008	Pit	136	492	66	133	32	3	25	85	54	122	1	1	.270	.341	.500	.841
2009	Bos	6	19	2	5	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	.263	.263	.526	.789
2009	Pit	87	324	46	80	25	1	12	40	41	81	2	2	.247	.329	.441	.770
2009	--	93	343	48	85	27	1	13	43	41	83	2	2	.248	.326	.446	.772
Total	--	781	2665	372	718	194	6	124	429	278	629	4	8	.269	.338	.486	.824