Jeff Francoeur is Optimistic...I Agree (a little)

The always excellent Kevin Kernan has a nice piece on Jeff Franceur's optimism going forward for 2010.

Francoeur has been something of a tough case for Mets fans, especially those of us who like more advanced stats.

The good: Francoeur was a very welcome shot in the arm when he came over late last year...he's like a permanent 5-hour energy drink. He also has the ability to relax those around him, plays decent (albeit overrated) defense, and he certainly has life in the bat. Lastly, he is extremely durable, can go out there every day and hits lefty's like an all-star.

The bad: It all centers around his inability to get on base. Francoeur has a lifetime .311 OBP in almost 3,000 big league plate appearances.

So why should we be as optimistic as Francoeur?

First off, he has steadily cut down on his Ks.

In the past 4 seasons his K numbers have showed a steady decline: 132, 129, 111, 92

His SO% has decreased in each of his 5 big league campaigns: 21,2%, 19.2%, 18.5%, 17.0%, 14.6%

What hasn't changed, however, are the key stats that lead to a decent on-base percentage.

His pitches per plate appearance have remained steady at around 3.4 per plate appearance. It's pretty tough to take walks with those numbers, but more importantly, Francoeur doesn't allow himself enough patience to wait on the most hittable pitch in an at-bat.

So the optimism must remain "cautious" at this point. Francoeur did make better contact with the Mets than he had in previous Brave campaigns. His batting average and slugging jumped by leaps and bounds, and he certainly looked aggressive and confident at the plate.

If Howard Johnson's work, and Francoer's maturity, can harness the talent into a 25 HR, 90 RBI, .330 OBP type of player, than it is a win all around.

Francoeur is never going to get on base a ton--this we know--what we want is for him to get on base "enough" while providing a solid presence in the lower half of the lineup.

I am optimistic about that.

A Tatis/Murphy Platoon Makes Sense

The more I think about Tatis coming back, the more inclined I am to like the idea based on the statistical evidence before us.

First off, Tatis, who had a dreadful first 2/3rds of a season in 2009, hit very well in August and September.

In August he hit .310 with an .811 OPS, and in September he hit .353 with an .883 OPS (he was 4 for 8 in October as well).

His overall splits were:

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	133	16	37	9	3	3	19	15	4	25	0	1	.278	.364	.459	.823
vs. Right	207	26	59	12	1	5	29	7	5	29	4	0	.285	.321	.425	.746
Home	172	23	48	8	2	5	27	14	6	27	2	1	.279	.352	.436	.788
Away	168	19	48	13	2	3	21	8	3	27	2	0	.286	.324	.440	.764
Day	107	23	37	5	0	5	21	7	4	18	4	0	.346	.397	.533	.930
Night	233	19	59	16	4	3	27	15	5	36	0	1	.253	.311	.395	.706
Grass	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	11	2	6	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	.545	.500	.727	1.227
April	23	6	8	1	1	1	2	2	1	3	2	0	.348	.407	.609	1.016
May	66	8	15	3	0	1	9	2	4	4	0	1	.227	.288	.318	.606
June	60	5	14	3	1	0	6	6	1	5	0	0	.233	.313	.317	.630
July	48	7	11	4	0	4	8	2	2	10	1	0	.229	.288	.563	.851
August	84	8	26	5	2	1	11	6	1	22	0	0	.310	.359	.452	.811
September	51	6	18	4	0	1	10	4	0	10	0	0	.353	.393	.490	.883
October	8	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.500	.625	1.125
Pre All-Star	173	24	43	9	2	4	20	11	8	15	3	1	.249	.320	.393	.713
Post All-Star	167	18	53	12	2	4	28	11	1	39	1	0	.317	.359	.485	.844

If you look at his numbers vs lefty's, the picture becomes even clearer: a decent .278 BA, .364 OBP, and .823 OPS, and that includes the numbers from his putrid May, June and July.

Similarly, Daniel Murphy had a horrendous May, June and July, and it seemed to click for him a little bit in August and September, especially in the power department.

Murph had a very respectable .556 Slg % in September, though he hardly walked at all during the entire season.

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	94	10	21	6	0	4	14	6	0	19	1	0	.223	.267	.415	.682
vs. Right	414	50	114	32	4	8	49	32	0	50	3	2	.275	.324	.430	.754
Home	248	30	73	22	4	7	33	12	0	30	2	0	.294	.323	.500	.823
Away	260	30	62	16	0	5	30	26	0	39	2	2	.238	.304	.358	.662
Day	180	21	47	12	2	4	29	16	0	23	3	1	.261	.318	.417	.735
Night	328	39	88	26	2	8	34	22	0	46	1	1	.268	.311	.433	.744
Grass	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	15	1	5	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.600	.933
April	68	13	22	2	1	1	7	6	0	6	1	0	.324	.373	.426	.799
May	68	8	12	3	0	3	10	10	0	8	0	1	.176	.278	.353	.631
June	75	7	18	3	0	1	7	7	0	10	0	0	.240	.298	.320	.618
July	84	9	21	9	0	1	11	9	0	17	1	0	.250	.323	.393	.716
August	113	9	33	11	1	1	11	3	0	18	1	1	.292	.308	.434	.742
September	90	13	25	9	2	4	15	3	0	9	1	0	.278	.298	.556	.854
October	10	1	4	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.400	.400	.800	1.200
Pre All-Star	242	30	60	11	1	5	28	25	0	30	1	1	.248	.314	.364	.678
Post All-Star	266	30	75	27	3	7	35	13	0	39	3	1	.282	.313	.485	.798

You'll notice that his numbers against RH pitching are much better than his numbers vs LH'ers. Moreover, his 20 doubles in 203 August/September at bats is simply outstanding.

If we combine Tatis against LH and Murph against RH using their 2009 splits we can forecast a worse case "player" with about a .280 BA, .350 OBP, and .450 Slg % and 15 HRs and 80 RBIs.

While those numbers are still very average compared to most first basemen in the league, they are not terrible.

I think the two players will actually outperform their 2009 seasons based on the end of season trends, and they can very easily attain a combined 20 HR and 90 RBI season and get on base enough times with gap power to make a decent contribution.

That is good enough.

Stat of the Day: David Wright's Righty Struggles

DW is really scuffling against righthander's this year:

Split	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	43	7	20	7	1	2	11	8	0	4	3	2	.465	.549	.814	1.363
vs. Right	111	15	23	6	0	6	23	21	0	25	2	2	.207	.331	.423	.754

It's something to keep an eye on as the season continues, especially since he bat .311 against righty's last year and .361 against lefty's.

For his complete splits click here.

Carlos Gomez: Troubling Early Signs

As I followed Carlos' assent through the Mets minors and up to the big club last year, I was always troubled by his free swinging style and lack of any sense of the strike zone. A talented athlete, he has all of the physical tools to excel at the major league level, but he is missing one key ingredient--the ability to identify a strike and swing at the pitch that will bring him the highest chance of success.

He has been pretty up and down with the Twins this year, and the latest trends on him are not favorable.

Here are his numbers and projections thus far in 2008:

2008 Season Stats
SPLITS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Season	22	94	12	24	5	1	1	6	2	24	10	1	.255	.271	.362	.633
Career	79	216	24	51	8	1	3	18	10	51	21	4	.236	.276	.324	.600
Last 7	5	22	1	3	0	0	1	2	0	7	0	0	.136	.136	.273	.409
Projected	161	688	88	176	37	7	7	44	15	176	73	7	.255	.271	.362	.633

Of note is his K to BB ration: 12 to 1. As you can see at the bottom of the chart, he is "on pace" for 175 strikeouts against 15 walks.

The positives are the speed numbers--10 stolen bases with only 1 caught stealing, 12 runs scored despite only being on base 26 times, etc.

So we'll play a bit of a wait and see game with young Carlos--he's an easy guy to root for, and his measurable statistics will get better. Will he ever achieve all-star status? That's a big question mark, and it all depends on his ability to learn the strike zone and become a better pitch selector.