The Mets Lineup: What Would You Do?

Jerry Manuel gets beat up a lot on the blogs and on the chat boards, and I'm as guilty as the next guy of thinking, at times, that my ideas are better than his, especially when it comes to the lineup.

There are a few things I would do if I were manager:

GMJ would be shown the door on day one, that is a given.

More importantly, I would put Reyes back at the top of the order and restore normalcy to the world in an attempt to appease the baseball gods.

In fact, my lineup would be as follows:

Jose Reyes
Angel Pagan
David Wright
Jason Bay
Ike Davis
Jeff Francoeur
Rod Barajas
Luis Castillo

Batting Reyes at leadoff is a no-brainer.  The top of the Mets order is not a place for an experiment.

For his career, Jose Reyes is batting an even .300 when leading off a game.  In 2008, his last healthy season, he hit .340 when leading off a game and .327 when leading off an inning.

More importantly, he scored 43 first inning runs when leading off a game in 2008.  That's over 1/4 of your season with a run in the first frame.  If you think that was a fluke, it's not.  He scored a first inning run 37 times in 2007.

I did a detailed stats piece here on why Angel Pagan must bat second in this lineup.  Memo to Jerry:  Playing second base does not mean you have to hit second.

The rest of the pieces fall in place naturally, and Alex Cora or Henry Blanco fit right in when their caddy role dictates they play.  The rest of the lineup consists of every day players.

When Carlos Beltran gets back I would actually hit him in the 2 hole, which would give the Mets a mini-murderer's row of:

Reyes
Beltran
Wright
Bay

The bottom line is this--the manager's role before a game starts consists primarily of putting out the lineup that will maximize production.

I believe Jerry has failed in that capacity.

It's Time to Move Jose Reyes Back to Leadoff

This has nothing to do with the last two losses.  It has nothing to do with Jason Bay seeing more fastballs.  It has nothing to do with Angel Pagan.

You move Jose Reyes back to leadoff because he is a leadoff hitter, period.

The top of the Mets order is not a place for an experiment.

For his career, Jose Reyes is batting an even .300 when leading off a game.

In 2008, his last healthy season, he hit .340 when leading off a game and .327 when leading off an inning.

More importantly, he scored 43 runs when leading off a game in 2008.  That's over 1/4 of your season with a run in the first frame.  If you think that was a fluke, it's not.  He scored a first inning run 37 times in 2007.

We know that Reyes is not back to form yet after the injuries, but he was actually producing better as a leadoff hitter.  Since he's moved to the 3 hole Jose is hitting just .200 with a .243 OBP.

It's time to move him back, and it needs to happen tonight.

Interesting Facts: All-Time Mets Records

I'm getting a bit tired of the countdown to spring training writeups, and the various "who did well and poorly over the winter" rants bashing the Mets, so I've been going through the Mets all-time stats courtesy of the Ultimate Mets Database (Ultimatemets) and found some interesting facts.

Here are a few:

David Wright will break the Doubles record the first month of the season:

1.	Ed Kranepool	225
2.	David Wright	222
3.	Howard Johnson	214
4.	Edgardo Alfonzo	212
5.	Mike Piazza	193
6.	Darryl Strawberry	187
7.	Cleon Jones	182
8.	Mookie Wilson	170
9.	Carlos Beltran	167
10.	José Reyes	162

Feared slugger Rey Ordonez is 6th all-time in Mets Intentional Walks:

1.	Darryl Strawberry	108
2.	Howard Johnson	101
3.	Ed Kranepool	89
4.	Mike Piazza	82
5.	Jerry Grote	70
6.	Rey Ordóñez	64
7.	Keith Hernandez	59
8.	Rusty Staub	56
9.	Todd Hundley	51
10.	Cleon Jones	42

Lance Johnson has the highest Batting Average of any player with at least 500 Met at-bats:

		Name	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	Avg.	Slg.	OBP
	1.	Lance Johnson	947	160	309	41	27	10	434	.326	.458	.369
	2.	John Olerud	1662	288	524	109	5	63	832	.315	.501	.425
	3.	David Wright	3185	552	983	222	13	140	1651	.309	.518	.389
	4.	Tommy Davis	577	72	174	32	0	16	254	.302	.440	.342
	5.	Rickey Henderson	534	106	159	31	0	12	226	.298	.423	.416
	6.	Keith Hernandez	3164	455	939	159	10	80	1358	.297	.429	.387
	7.	Paul Lo Duca	957	126	284	57	2	14	387	.297	.404	.334
	8.	Mike Piazza	3478	532	1028	193	2	220	1885	.296	.542	.373
	9.	Edgardo Alfonzo	3897	614	1136	212	14	120	1736	.292	.445	.367
	10.	Dave Magadan	2088	275	610	110	11	21	805	.292	.386	.391

Pedro Feliciano will move into second place all-time this year in Pitching Appearances:

1.	John Franco	695
2.	Tom Seaver	401
3.	Jerry Koosman	376
4.	Jesse Orosco	372
5.	Pedro Feliciano	367
6.	Tug McGraw	361
7.	Armando Benitez	333
8.	Dwight Gooden	305
9.	Aaron Heilman	305
10.	Jeff Innis	288

Among pitchers with 50 decisions as a Met, Doc Gooden stands alone at the top of an impressive list of hurlers:

Name	W	L	Pct.
	1.	Dwight Gooden	157	85	.649
	2.	Rick Reed	59	36	.621
	3.	Tom Seaver	198	124	.615
	4.	David Cone	81	51	.614
	5.	Ron Darling	99	70	.586
	6.	Al Leiter	95	67	.586
	7.	Pedro Martinez	32	23	.582
	8.	Bret Saberhagen	29	21	.580
	9.	Rick Aguilera	37	27	.578
	10.	Bobby Jones	74	56	.569

Anyway, I highly encourage you to check out the Ultimate Mets Database (Ultimatemets)...you can seriously have hours of fun over there.

I know I do.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Who's the Gehrig of the Mets? Try Ed Kranepool. (nytimes.com)
• Will David Wright's Power Numbers Return in 2010? (bleacherreport.com)

Random Predictions

I am watching this crapfest they call a final tuneup and have been pondering the upcoming season.

Here are my random, unscientific, gut-feel predictions for 2009.

Jose Reyes: 208 Hits, 22 Triples
David Wright: 28 HRs, 44 Doubles
John Maine: 16 Wins
Ryan Church: 24 HRs, stays healthy and has a terrific year
Johan Santana: 22-7 (Cy Young)
Luis Castillo: .290 Batting Average, 90 Runs Scored
KRod: 43 Saves
Daniel Murphy: .305 Batting Average, 76 RBIs
Carlos Delgado: 121 RBIs
Carlos Beltran: 42 HRs
JJ Putz: 14 Saves, 2.65 ERA
Ollie Perez: 14-12
Mike Pelfrey: 17-10
Livan Hernandez: 2-9, 5.80 ERA, gets released
Fernando Tatis: Does not thrive in the super-sub role, but puts up decent numbers

Fun Player Facts and Questions for 2009

Will Jose Reyes get his 1,000th hit on or before his 26th birthday?

Jose Reyes, at age 25, needs 81 hits to 1,000. There are 60 more games until he turns 26 on June 11th. Some quick math tells us that if he averages the same number of at-bats per game this year as last year, 4.33, and he plays in all 60 of those games, that he will get his 1,000th hit on or before his 26th birthday if he is hitting .312 or better.

Has Carlos Beltran been here this long already?

Carlos is currently 10th all-time in Met RBIs. With 120 this year he'll pass Edgaro Alfonzo, who is currently 5th. Of course, David Wright is ahead of him and has a chance to move into 4th all-time this year.

Player

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

TB

BB

SO

SB

CS

OBP

SLG

AVG

				1. D Strawberry		1109		3903		662		1025		187		30		252		733		2028		580		960		191		75		.359		.520	.263
				2. M Piazza		972		3478		532		1028		193		2		220		655		1885		424		546		7		9		.373		.542	.296
				3. H Johnson		1154		3968		627		997		214		18		192		629		1823		556		827		202		63		.341		.459	.251
				4. E Kranepool		1853		5436		536		1418		225		25		118		614		2047		454		581		15		27		.316		.377	.261
				5. E Alfonzo*		1086		3897		614		1136		212		14		120		538		1736		458		498		45		14		.367		.445	.292
				6. C Jones		1201		4223		563		1188		182		33		93		521		1715		355		697		91		48		.340		.406	.281
				7. D Wright*		703		2650		464		819		183		10		130		489		1412		340		499		92		22		.389		.533	.309
				8. K Hernandez		880		3164		455		939		159		10		80		468		1358		471		459		17		17		.387		.429	.297
				9. K McReynolds		787		2910		405		791		153		14		122		456		1338		263		341		67		16		.331		.460	.272
				10. C Beltran*		596		2252		419		620		145		11		117		418		1138		312		402		83		14		.362		.505	.275

Speaking of David Wright...

He needs 42 doubles to tie Ed Kranepool for first on the Mets all-time list. He has had exactly 42 doubles in 3 of his last 4 seasons, and topped 40 or more in each of those years.

David Wright is a doubles machine.

Career: Batting
SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	NYM	69	263	41	77	17	1	14	40	14	40	6	0	.293	.332	.525	.857
2005	NYM	160	575	99	176	42	1	27	102	72	113	17	7	.306	.388	.523	.911
2006	NYM	154	582	96	181	40	5	26	116	66	113	20	5	.311	.381	.531	.912
2007	NYM	160	604	113	196	42	1	30	107	94	115	34	5	.325	.416	.546	.962
2008	NYM	160	626	115	189	42	2	33	124	94	118	15	5	.302	.390	.534	.924
Total	--	703	2650	464	819	183	10	130	489	340	499	92	22	.309	.389	.533	.922

Carlos Delgado is about to pass some Hall of Fame Milestones:

Carlos needs 24 doubles and 31 homeruns for 500 in each category. He is also currently 50th all-time in RBIs and only 11 away from 1,500.

If he drives in 111 RBIs this year he moves up to 30th all-time.

Is he a Hall of Famer? Yes, I think so for sure.

Historical Facts from the "Did You Know" file?

Bob Gibson currently hold the record for best "Batting Average Against" by any pitcher in Mets history.

Yes, Bob Gibson held opponents to zero hits in his one inning of work for the Mets after coming over from the Brewers in 1987.

Wait, you didn't think I meant that Bob Gibson?

And now the historical trivia question:

Which player has grounded into the most double plays while wearing a Met uniform?

So there ya go...a few fun facts and questions for a Saturday Spring Training morning.

Let me know if you enjoy this, and I'll write one of these up every few weeks or so.

Reyes and Tatis Due Back

Loyal readers know how much I dislike the WBC.

So while baseball mecca, the Dominican Republic, mourned their shocking upset loss to the Netherlands, I rejoiced.

Two key Mets from that team, Jose Reyes and Fernando Tatis, are set to rejoin the club as early as today.

Both players will play a major role on this year's team and account for about 1,000 of the team's 5,600 or so 2009 at-bats.

So to my Dominican friends, sorry your team got beat...to all Mets fans...yes, we are rejoicing...Jose is back!!!

Andruw Jones Now Officially a Ranger

Well, sort of anyway.

The former superstar slugger signed a deal that pays him $500K if he makes the team, with a chance to earn an additional $1M if he reaches certain incentives...like not striking out 76 times in 200 at-bats, as he did in 2008, with a 37 OPS+ on the year.

Just think, he was halfway through a deal worth $36M when he was released.

For $500K he was worth a flyer for the Mets in my opinion.

Ok amigos...tell me this hasn't been the strangest off-season ever???

Thanks All

It was a dissappointing end to a very exciting Mets season.

On Sunday the bats never got going, and other than a dramatic game tying homerun from Carlos Beltran, the Mets couldn't get very much going, losing a 4-2 heartbreaker on a day they had to win to force a one game playoff with the Brewers.

So take a break, catch your breath, and start looking to next year.

The Mets "superstar core", which consists of Johan Santana, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran will all be here for 2009.

Toss in Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey, and it's easy to see that the Mets will again contend in '09.

There are issues to be addressed, primarily in the bullpen and in the starting pitching staff, but we're confident that next year's team will be even better than this years.

Thanks to all the readers here for your continued support. There is much more to come!