Val Pascucci: Still Not the Answer

My good friend Ted Berg continues to carry the flag for our returning hero Val Pascucci.

Pascucci has some overly inflated minor league stats in the PCL, and a reputation that would make Paul Bunyan blush.

So what about Val Pascucci, a purported Mets savior? How good is this guy? How good can he be with the Mets?

In mid-2008 he had a solid .980 OPS in the PCL, which led Tim Marchman to translate to an .850 OPS in the big leagues (saying it is a Baseball Prospectus number).

Marchman said Pascucci "can be our Vlad Guerrero!"

Aint gonna happen folks, and here's why...

The PCL, for the uninformed, is the hitting haven for mid-20s to mid 30s has been's, or never will be's.

So let's take a peek at the 2009 PCL stats sorted by HRs:

Pacific Coast League: Batting Leaders (click column headers to sort)
Name	Team	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Mitch Jones	ALB	RF	108	387	72	115	26	3	35	103	252	40	102	9	3	.364	.651	.297	1.015
Sean Rodriguez	SLC	2B	103	365	81	109	17	6	29	93	225	51	119	9	2	.400	.616	.299	1.017
Allen Craig	MEM	LF	126	472	78	152	26	1	26	83	258	37	95	3	0	.374	.547	.322	.921
Terry Evans	SLC	RF	135	537	104	156	33	6	26	90	279	40	146	28	5	.341	.520	.291	.860
Bryan LaHair	TAC	LF	121	457	72	132	28	2	26	85	242	45	116	0	5	.354	.530	.289	.883
Randy Ruiz	LAS	1B	114	462	81	148	43	2	25	106	270	47	99	0	0	.392	.584	.320	.976
Matt Carson	SAC	CF	118	440	68	116	29	3	25	77	226	38	94	15	4	.327	.514	.264	.841
Brendan Katin	NAS	RF	127	459	67	112	33	6	24	92	229	35	164	2	0	.305	.499	.244	.804
Joe Koshansky	NAS	1B	135	455	72	99	21	3	24	80	198	64	166	7	4	.316	.435	.218	.752
Cory Aldridge	OMA	RF	98	354	48	112	20	4	22	71	206	24	86	0	1	.361	.582	.316	.943
Brandon Wood	SLC	3B	99	386	65	113	28	4	22	72	215	36	80	1	1	.353	.557	.293	.910
John Bowker	FRE	RF	104	366	82	125	22	4	21	83	218	74	64	10	6	.451	.596	.342	1.047
Prentice Redman	TAC	RF	108	414	84	123	35	3	21	66	227	33	77	7	2	.352	.548	.297	.900
J.P. Arencibia	LAS	C	116	466	67	110	32	1	21	75	207	26	114	0	1	.284	.444	.236	.728
Scott Thorman	OMA	LF	108	399	49	115	16	2	20	67	195	24	75	7	3	.342	.489	.288	.830
Chad Huffman	POR	LF	135	469	65	126	30	2	20	68	220	57	115	8	5	.361	.469	.269	.830
Brett Harper	ALB	1B	103	390	46	114	25	1	19	71	198	26	48	0	0	.333	.508	.292	.841
Dee Brown	ALB	LF	121	396	79	115	35	0	19	80	207	57	63	9	3	.382	.523	.290	.905
John Lindsey	NEW	1B	133	443	53	111	22	1	19	83	192	38	112	1	2	.331	.433	.251	.764
Valentino Pascucci	POR	1B	126	436	62	108	25	2	19	77	194	66	119	3	0	.348	.445	.248	.793

The average age of those players is 27. Moreover, many have major league experience, and for the most part, they have been putrid in the big leagues.

Some of the names on that list are quite familiar to Mets fans.

Prentice Redman anyone?

The PCL slugger has tasted the big leagues only once, in 2003, when he hit .125 for the Mets. Now, as he nears age 30, one has to wonder why he hasn't been given his chance...or, you can realize that his numbers are over-inflated by virtue of his playing in the PCL.

In 2008 Dallas McPherson hit 42 HRs in the PCL in only 448 at-bats...McGwire'esque!

Well, in 399 big league at-bats he has 126 Ks and a 97 OPS+

Now I'm personally happy for the Mets AAA fans...Pascucci might make their season a bit more enjoyable.

What I don't have is any illusion whatsoever that Val with make any contribution to the 2010 Mets. He's just not that good.

Fellow Mets Bloggers (and our readers)

Times are tough, and some have it tougher than others.

If you haven't found Mack's Mets yet, I encourage you to give it a look.

Mack could use a hand, and I know many of you are in position to maybe kick a few bucks his way.

Now I'm not in the business of telling anyone what to do with their money, but if you're a Mets fan and a reader of Mack's work, I know he'd truly appreciate anything you can do.

-- Dave

Interesting Signing: Frank Catalanotto

Nothing wrong with giving a guy a look and a spring training invite.

He's a longshot to make the team, but Frank can still hit a bit and is a solid citizen.

One thing is for sure, if he does get any at-bats this year with the Mets it will be against righthanders only.

Catalanotto is one of the worst lefty on lefty hitters in the game, and in the last 3 seasons he has hit .167 against them in only 36 at-bats, while hitting .274 against righty's in over 680 at-bats.

Career: Batting |
SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1997	Det	13	26	2	8	2	0	0	3	3	7	0	0	.308	.379	.385	.764
1998	Det	89	213	23	60	13	2	6	25	12	39	3	2	.282	.325	.446	.771
1999	Det	100	286	41	79	19	0	11	35	15	49	3	4	.276	.327	.458	.785
2000	Tex	103	282	55	82	13	2	10	42	33	36	6	2	.291	.375	.457	.832
2001	Tex	133	463	77	153	31	5	11	54	39	55	15	5	.330	.391	.490	.881
2002	Tex	68	212	42	57	16	6	3	23	25	27	9	5	.269	.364	.443	.807
2003	Tor	133	489	83	146	34	6	13	59	35	62	2	2	.299	.351	.472	.823
2004	Tor	75	249	27	73	19	1	1	26	17	33	1	0	.293	.344	.390	.734
2005	Tor	130	419	56	126	29	5	8	59	37	53	0	2	.301	.367	.451	.818
2006	Tor	128	437	56	131	36	2	7	56	52	37	1	3	.300	.376	.439	.815
2007	Tex	103	331	52	86	20	4	11	44	28	37	2	1	.260	.337	.444	.781
2008	Tex	88	248	28	68	23	1	2	21	20	29	1	1	.274	.342	.399	.741
2009	Mil	77	144	18	40	6	3	1	9	14	23	2	0	.278	.346	.382	.728
Total	--	1240	3799	560	1109	261	37	84	456	330	487	45	27	.292	.358	.446	.804

A Tatis/Murphy Platoon Makes Sense

The more I think about Tatis coming back, the more inclined I am to like the idea based on the statistical evidence before us.

First off, Tatis, who had a dreadful first 2/3rds of a season in 2009, hit very well in August and September.

In August he hit .310 with an .811 OPS, and in September he hit .353 with an .883 OPS (he was 4 for 8 in October as well).

His overall splits were:

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	133	16	37	9	3	3	19	15	4	25	0	1	.278	.364	.459	.823
vs. Right	207	26	59	12	1	5	29	7	5	29	4	0	.285	.321	.425	.746
Home	172	23	48	8	2	5	27	14	6	27	2	1	.279	.352	.436	.788
Away	168	19	48	13	2	3	21	8	3	27	2	0	.286	.324	.440	.764
Day	107	23	37	5	0	5	21	7	4	18	4	0	.346	.397	.533	.930
Night	233	19	59	16	4	3	27	15	5	36	0	1	.253	.311	.395	.706
Grass	340	42	96	21	4	8	48	22	9	54	4	1	.282	.339	.438	.777
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	11	2	6	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	.545	.500	.727	1.227
April	23	6	8	1	1	1	2	2	1	3	2	0	.348	.407	.609	1.016
May	66	8	15	3	0	1	9	2	4	4	0	1	.227	.288	.318	.606
June	60	5	14	3	1	0	6	6	1	5	0	0	.233	.313	.317	.630
July	48	7	11	4	0	4	8	2	2	10	1	0	.229	.288	.563	.851
August	84	8	26	5	2	1	11	6	1	22	0	0	.310	.359	.452	.811
September	51	6	18	4	0	1	10	4	0	10	0	0	.353	.393	.490	.883
October	8	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	.500	.500	.625	1.125
Pre All-Star	173	24	43	9	2	4	20	11	8	15	3	1	.249	.320	.393	.713
Post All-Star	167	18	53	12	2	4	28	11	1	39	1	0	.317	.359	.485	.844

If you look at his numbers vs lefty's, the picture becomes even clearer: a decent .278 BA, .364 OBP, and .823 OPS, and that includes the numbers from his putrid May, June and July.

Similarly, Daniel Murphy had a horrendous May, June and July, and it seemed to click for him a little bit in August and September, especially in the power department.

Murph had a very respectable .556 Slg % in September, though he hardly walked at all during the entire season.

2009 Batting Splits
Overall	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Breakdown	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	94	10	21	6	0	4	14	6	0	19	1	0	.223	.267	.415	.682
vs. Right	414	50	114	32	4	8	49	32	0	50	3	2	.275	.324	.430	.754
Home	248	30	73	22	4	7	33	12	0	30	2	0	.294	.323	.500	.823
Away	260	30	62	16	0	5	30	26	0	39	2	2	.238	.304	.358	.662
Day	180	21	47	12	2	4	29	16	0	23	3	1	.261	.318	.417	.735
Night	328	39	88	26	2	8	34	22	0	46	1	1	.268	.311	.433	.744
Grass	508	60	135	38	4	12	63	38	0	69	4	2	.266	.313	.427	.740
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	15	1	5	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.600	.933
April	68	13	22	2	1	1	7	6	0	6	1	0	.324	.373	.426	.799
May	68	8	12	3	0	3	10	10	0	8	0	1	.176	.278	.353	.631
June	75	7	18	3	0	1	7	7	0	10	0	0	.240	.298	.320	.618
July	84	9	21	9	0	1	11	9	0	17	1	0	.250	.323	.393	.716
August	113	9	33	11	1	1	11	3	0	18	1	1	.292	.308	.434	.742
September	90	13	25	9	2	4	15	3	0	9	1	0	.278	.298	.556	.854
October	10	1	4	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	.400	.400	.800	1.200
Pre All-Star	242	30	60	11	1	5	28	25	0	30	1	1	.248	.314	.364	.678
Post All-Star	266	30	75	27	3	7	35	13	0	39	3	1	.282	.313	.485	.798

You'll notice that his numbers against RH pitching are much better than his numbers vs LH'ers. Moreover, his 20 doubles in 203 August/September at bats is simply outstanding.

If we combine Tatis against LH and Murph against RH using their 2009 splits we can forecast a worse case "player" with about a .280 BA, .350 OBP, and .450 Slg % and 15 HRs and 80 RBIs.

While those numbers are still very average compared to most first basemen in the league, they are not terrible.

I think the two players will actually outperform their 2009 seasons based on the end of season trends, and they can very easily attain a combined 20 HR and 90 RBI season and get on base enough times with gap power to make a decent contribution.

That is good enough.

Would a 2010 Youth Movement Be More Fun?

With the same tired, one dimensional or injured names being thrown around, (Ryan Garko, Ben Sheets, Carlos Delgado), along with the recent signing of Gary Mathews, Jr, it's becoming more and more apparent that 2010 would be a lot more fun if we could all just take a breath and resign ourselves to the fact that watching a bunch of young guys play baseball would be a lot more fun than trying to hope for a miracle on an injured arm, an older fading never was, or a broken down former star.

Let's play Thole, Nick Evans, Daniel Murphy, even Ike Davis to platoon with Murph.

Why not have Chris Carter as the 4th outfielder?

Let Angel Pagan play CF for as long as it takes to get Beltran back.

Let's look at our "youth team" to start the season and a lineup that could work well:

SS-Jose Reyes (26)
CF-Angel Pagan (28)
3B-David Wright (27)
LF-Jason Bay (31)
RF- Jeff Francoeur (26)
1B-Daniel Murphy (25) and Ike Davis (23)
C-Josh Thole (23)
2B-Luis Castillo (34)

The same can be said of the pitching: Tobi Stoner, Dillon Gee, Jonathan Niese, Jay Marshall, all young and talented. Ollie Perez is still only 28 heading into the season, and I expect Big Pelf to have a superb year.

Here is a simple question--would you rather watch Ike Davis or Fernando Tatis in 2010?

The Mets don't need to go into 2010 with any lofty expectations, because every realist out there knows that this is likely not the year, nor is it the team that should expect to win right now.

That said, it is a team that can win, and by playing the younger talent, you'll likely get an inspired brand of fun baseball that would be competitive without breaking the bank. You also just might be surprised at the results.

It's the kind of thinking that would set up the more legitimate possibility for 2011 and beyond.

Play the kids now.

Mets Blood Drive at Citi Field

Mets Blood Drive

The Mets will be hosting their annual Winter Blood Drive for the New York Blood Center on Wednesday, January 27, in Citi Field's Caesars Club from 10 am to 5 pm (First Base VIP Entrance). Donors must be 17 years of age (16 with parental permission), weigh at least 110 lbs and be in good health. Each donor will receive a pair of tickets to a select Mets game in April. Bring ID with photo or signature. Call 1-800-933-BLOOD for more information.

Give the gift of life, give blood.

Chat Live with Daniel Murphy at 2PM

Chat Live with Daniel Murphy Today at 2pm ET

Daniel Murphy will be chatting live on Mets.com--the chat can be accessed through the link here:.

Go To The Chat Room Now »

Murph will take your questions--I'm sure Beltran will get mentioned.

NOTE: You must be a registered user on mets.com to participate.

Staying Optimistic on Beltran

Although news of Beltran's knee surgery came as a surprise, now that we've had a night to let it sink in, there are reasons for optimism.

By way of background, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his troublesome right knee Wednesday and the All-Star center fielder will miss the start of the season. There are conflicting reports on whether or not the Mets gave their permission, but there is no question that Beltran and his doctors felt he needed the procedure to have a productive 2010 campaign.

And that's the real point here--having the surgery in mid-January, almost 3 months prior to the season's April 5th Opening Day, or having it later and delaying his season even further.

If the doctor's 8-12 week estimate is true, Beltran can reasonably be expected back in the lineup in mid-May.

Yes, this is absolutely bad news for the Mets, especially on the heels of 2009 when it seemed every player on the team went down with one ailment or another. In fact, the Mets had more disabled list days than any other team in history, and the record certainly showed it.

There is still the issue of whether or not Beltran's physician spoke with Mets medical personnel, but according to Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, Dr Steadman spoke with Mets medical director Dr. David Altchek on Monday and again after Beltran was examined in Colorado on Tuesday, and that Steadman obtained Altchek's consent for the surgery.

From the AP:

"Dr. Steadman has represented to us that he spoke with the Mets' physician and he received consent to go forward with the plan and the surgery," Boras said. "Dr. Steadman has told us that his office contacted the Mets trainer and obtained the appropriate insurance forms and received approval for payment to go ahead with the surgery."

"The doctor said eight weeks, possibly, and a window to 12 weeks to resume baseball activities. With elite athletes, the timetable is sometimes shorter than the original prognosis," Boras said.

In a statement released Wednesday night, the Mets said Beltran's osteoarthritis worsened during the offseason and he decided to have arthroscopic surgery to clean out the arthritic area of his knee.

The procedure was performed by Steadman, considered one of the top knee surgeons in the world. He is noted for his work performing microfracture knee surgery on basketball players.

Boras said Altchek had been examining Beltran once a month during the offseason.

"Since the beginning of November, he was feeling discomfort and pain," Boras said. "They found some fragments in there that had to be removed."

Mets fans are rightfully worried about these events, especially given that the team's rack record on injuries has been less than stellar. I also think they should remain optimistic that 4-6 early season weeks without Beltran is much better than the alternative of missing major chunks of time mid to late year.

For now Angel Pagan looks to be the leading contender to start the year in CF, though Rick Ankiel could be a decent stop-gap or platoon option and 4th outfielder.

Talk Me Off the Ledge: Bengie Molina

All of the pundits are saying the signing of Bengie Molina is not only imminent, but that's it's also a foregone conclusion, and that the deal will be a compromise 2-year package.

Why, why, why?

This is the same Bengie Molina that put up the following stats in 2009:

• .189 BA with 2 outs and RISP
• .225 BA and .250 OBP on the road
• 3 walks in 312 plate appearances in the first half of the season
• .165 BA and .183 OBP in games played that his team lost
• In 14 plate appearances in which he worked the count to 3-1, he walked twice
• .286 OBP with RISP
• When he faced a SP the third time in a game, he hit .194 wit a .212 OBP

What's even worse, is that his fielding stats have declined and he was worse than league average as a catcher.

Finally, he threw out 23% of basestealers.

Some pro-Molina folks point to the 80 RBIs as proof of his production, but they fail to mention this: he bat cleanup the entire year! That means he had more men on base than anyone else in that lineup, yet only put up 80 RBIs, largely because of his putrid 86 OPS+.

I've been hoping beyond hope that all the Bengie Molina talk would fade away, but not only hasn't it faded, the Mets are actually going to sign this terrible athlete, hitter and sub-par fielder.

Talk me off the ledge please.

Help Former Met Ed Hearn Fight Kidney Disease

This is a very easy cause to get behind, and it's easy to do by using your Facebook account and voting at Nephcure.

Ed Hearn is a terrific guy and played an important role caddying for Gary Carter on the 1986 championship team, including starting a lot of key games when Carter got hurt.

He's had three kidney transplants and is a true inspiration and leader as a motivational speaker and author.

More can be seen in the video below, on Ed Hearn's website, and on this website, Nephcure.

Keith Speaks Out on Steroids

We recently spoke to Keith Hernandez about steroids, and he relayed the following story:

During one of my recent walks in the Hamptons out on Long Island, a young lad in a Yankee cap came up to me and asked me about steroids. He told me he wasn't sure what they were or what the word even meant.

He was concerned about some of his favorite players, namely Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi, and what impact steroids would have on their chances for the Hall of Fame.

He noticed I was snacking on a wheel of cheese and asked me innocently, "Mr Hernandez, is cheese a steroid?"

I thought to myself, "what a great question!" I tore off a hunk of the cheese, autographed it for him, and sent the kid on his way.

Let me clear up any misconceptions kiddies and tell you right now that High Cheddar is not a steroid, but it is a drug....a fascinating drug.

You stand in the box, absolutely mesmerized, and you just see this pill, or 'fastball' coming at you at 98 mph....let me tell you it's a rush like no other.

So no Mets fans, High Cheddar is not a steroid, but it does act like a drug.

Did you see that moon Gary? That's something else that has been compared to cheese.