Val Pascucci: Still Not the Answer

My good friend Ted Berg continues to carry the flag for our returning hero Val Pascucci.

Pascucci has some overly inflated minor league stats in the PCL, and a reputation that would make Paul Bunyan blush.

So what about Val Pascucci, a purported Mets savior? How good is this guy? How good can he be with the Mets?

In mid-2008 he had a solid .980 OPS in the PCL, which led Tim Marchman to translate to an .850 OPS in the big leagues (saying it is a Baseball Prospectus number).

Marchman said Pascucci "can be our Vlad Guerrero!"

Aint gonna happen folks, and here's why...

The PCL, for the uninformed, is the hitting haven for mid-20s to mid 30s has been's, or never will be's.

So let's take a peek at the 2009 PCL stats sorted by HRs:

Pacific Coast League: Batting Leaders (click column headers to sort)
Name	Team	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Mitch Jones	ALB	RF	108	387	72	115	26	3	35	103	252	40	102	9	3	.364	.651	.297	1.015
Sean Rodriguez	SLC	2B	103	365	81	109	17	6	29	93	225	51	119	9	2	.400	.616	.299	1.017
Allen Craig	MEM	LF	126	472	78	152	26	1	26	83	258	37	95	3	0	.374	.547	.322	.921
Terry Evans	SLC	RF	135	537	104	156	33	6	26	90	279	40	146	28	5	.341	.520	.291	.860
Bryan LaHair	TAC	LF	121	457	72	132	28	2	26	85	242	45	116	0	5	.354	.530	.289	.883
Randy Ruiz	LAS	1B	114	462	81	148	43	2	25	106	270	47	99	0	0	.392	.584	.320	.976
Matt Carson	SAC	CF	118	440	68	116	29	3	25	77	226	38	94	15	4	.327	.514	.264	.841
Brendan Katin	NAS	RF	127	459	67	112	33	6	24	92	229	35	164	2	0	.305	.499	.244	.804
Joe Koshansky	NAS	1B	135	455	72	99	21	3	24	80	198	64	166	7	4	.316	.435	.218	.752
Cory Aldridge	OMA	RF	98	354	48	112	20	4	22	71	206	24	86	0	1	.361	.582	.316	.943
Brandon Wood	SLC	3B	99	386	65	113	28	4	22	72	215	36	80	1	1	.353	.557	.293	.910
John Bowker	FRE	RF	104	366	82	125	22	4	21	83	218	74	64	10	6	.451	.596	.342	1.047
Prentice Redman	TAC	RF	108	414	84	123	35	3	21	66	227	33	77	7	2	.352	.548	.297	.900
J.P. Arencibia	LAS	C	116	466	67	110	32	1	21	75	207	26	114	0	1	.284	.444	.236	.728
Scott Thorman	OMA	LF	108	399	49	115	16	2	20	67	195	24	75	7	3	.342	.489	.288	.830
Chad Huffman	POR	LF	135	469	65	126	30	2	20	68	220	57	115	8	5	.361	.469	.269	.830
Brett Harper	ALB	1B	103	390	46	114	25	1	19	71	198	26	48	0	0	.333	.508	.292	.841
Dee Brown	ALB	LF	121	396	79	115	35	0	19	80	207	57	63	9	3	.382	.523	.290	.905
John Lindsey	NEW	1B	133	443	53	111	22	1	19	83	192	38	112	1	2	.331	.433	.251	.764
Valentino Pascucci	POR	1B	126	436	62	108	25	2	19	77	194	66	119	3	0	.348	.445	.248	.793

The average age of those players is 27. Moreover, many have major league experience, and for the most part, they have been putrid in the big leagues.

Some of the names on that list are quite familiar to Mets fans.

Prentice Redman anyone?

The PCL slugger has tasted the big leagues only once, in 2003, when he hit .125 for the Mets. Now, as he nears age 30, one has to wonder why he hasn't been given his chance...or, you can realize that his numbers are over-inflated by virtue of his playing in the PCL.

In 2008 Dallas McPherson hit 42 HRs in the PCL in only 448 at-bats...McGwire'esque!

Well, in 399 big league at-bats he has 126 Ks and a 97 OPS+

Now I'm personally happy for the Mets AAA fans...Pascucci might make their season a bit more enjoyable.

What I don't have is any illusion whatsoever that Val with make any contribution to the 2010 Mets. He's just not that good.

Val Pascucci: Not the Answer

I read with amusement Tim Marchman's article on the Mets "Outfield Solution", an article that appeared two weeks ago and still has uninformed Mets fans buzzing.

"Pascucci! He's our answer," they say when shown his overly inflated minor league stats in the PCL.

So what about Val Pascucci, Tim Marchman's purported Mets savior? How good is this guy? How good can he be with the Mets?

He has a solid .980 OPS in the PCL, which led to a Marchman translation of an .850 OPS in the big leagues (saying it is a Baseball Prospectus number).

Marchman said Pascucci "can be our Vlad Guerrero!"

Aint gonna happen folks, and here's why...

The PCL, for the uninformed, is the hitting haven for mid-20s to mid 30s has been's, or never will be's.

Take a look at the top 20 players, sorted by OPS--you'll find Pascucci in there.

Name	Team	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Nelson Cruz	OKL	RF	99	366	93	126	17	3	37	98	260	56	84	24	8	.434	.710	.344	1.144
Dallas McPherson	ALB	3B	103	359	78	106	15	3	39	86	244	67	131	13	6	.405	.680	.295	1.085
Jamie D'Antona	TUC	3B	92	343	58	126	31	1	17	67	210	24	53	0	0	.407	.612	.367	1.019
Josh Whitesell	TUC	1B	107	396	71	130	29	0	21	86	222	60	113	1	2	.424	.561	.328	.985
Valentino Pascucci	NOZ	RF	89	311	62	89	15	0	24	65	176	64	85	3	0	.411	.566	.286	.977
Terry Tiffee	LVG	3B	87	363	69	136	37	3	8	62	203	27	39	0	2	.415	.559	.375	.974
Matthew Brown	SLC	3B	93	384	74	125	32	4	21	67	228	30	74	4	2	.377	.594	.326	.971
Brian Myrow	POR	1B	87	299	56	97	21	1	10	53	150	71	63	0	1	.455	.502	.324	.957
Brandon Wood	SLC	3B	79	315	68	91	17	2	25	61	187	29	83	4	3	.354	.594	.289	.948
Scott McClain	FRE	1B	111	394	76	120	31	1	22	85	219	56	78	5	2	.389	.556	.305	.945
Chip Ambres	POR	CF	86	322	71	95	25	5	17	64	181	41	68	8	2	.377	.562	.295	.939
Chris Aguila	NOZ	OF	92	329	58	97	14	1	23	59	182	42	79	10	3	.380	.553	.295	.934
Nate Schierholtz	FRE	OF	88	331	58	104	20	10	15	65	189	21	45	9	2	.360	.571	.314	.931
John Lindsey	LVG	1B	107	398	68	122	31	1	20	84	215	44	64	0	0	.387	.540	.307	.928
Tug Hulett	TAC	2B	87	324	70	99	22	5	14	47	173	47	70	10	5	.386	.534	.306	.920
Victor Diaz	TAC	OF	100	367	52	106	29	0	22	88	201	46	123	7	3	.371	.548	.289	.919
Freddy Sandoval	SLC	3B	105	419	72	140	35	2	14	72	221	42	63	6	3	.391	.527	.334	.919
Andres Torres	IOW	OF	95	321	71	97	24	6	11	42	166	48	84	16	3	.397	.517	.302	.914
John-Ford Griffin	LVG	LF	94	319	56	99	19	4	14	67	168	36	60	1	1	.386	.527	.310	.912
Joe Koshansky	CSP	1B	94	352	58	96	31	2	22	88	197	42	125	1	0	.351	.560	.273	.910

The average age of those players is 27. Moreover, many have major league experience, and for the most part, they have been putrid in the big leagues.

To whit:

27-year old Nelson Cruz, a PCL superstar and the likely PCL MVP, has a major league OBP of .282 in 442 at-bats with 119 Ks. He has a .434 OBP in the PCL.

27-year old Dallas McPherson, PCL slugger extraordinaire, has a major league OBP of .294 in 360 at-bats with 121 Ks. He has a .409 OBP in the PCL.

Remember Victor Diaz? He is now a PCL superstar, but in the big leagues he had a .309 OBP in 446 at-bats with 135 Ks. He has a .370 OBP in the PCL.

Chip Ambres? PCL superstar. ...he currently has a .371 OBP in the PCL with solid power numbers. In the big leagues he hit .230 with 104 Ks in 418 at-bats.

So yeah Marchman, how do the numbers for the players above tranlate to the big leagues, and why has no one put the numbers up when they get the call?

Anyway, next time you feel like blowing smoke up the collective rear ends of Met Nation, please do a little more homework.