David Wright, Strikeouts and the Beaning: Before and After

After David Wright ended the game yesterday with his MLB leading 51st strikeout, I decided to go back and look through the numbers to make some sense of this.

Earlier today I posted his splits, which show DW striking out an astonishing 43% of the time against righthanded pitching.

I then went back through the game logs.

In 2009 David Wright struck out 140 times in 535 at-bats, or 26.2% of the time.

On August 15th of last year David Wright was hit in the head by Matt Cain, prior to getting beaned, DW was striking out 24.6% of the time.

When he returned from the DL, he struck out 32.1% of the time for the remainder of 2009.

In 2010, DW is striking out 38.3% of the time.

Let's look at David Wright strikeout percentage by month, and pre and post beaning for 2009 through May 2010.

• Apr 2009: 32.9%
• May 2009: 26.5%
• Jun 2009:  22.1%
• Jul 2009:  21.5%
• Aug 2009: 18.4%
• Aug 15:  Beaned by Matt Cain
• Sep 2009:  32.1%
• Apr 2010: 33.8%
• May 2010: 44.6%

Here is how 2009-2010 looks on the chart:

Click on the chart for an expanded view

Notice the nice downward trend in the K's prior to the beaning--DW was normalizing back toward his solid career numbers.  Then once he was hit, he began to strikeout more than ever, and that trend is sharply on the rise.

What started off as some understandable post-beaning gun shyness is now firmly entrenched in his psyche.  We see this when DW turns away from regular curveballs as they drop into the strike zone, and it's certainly thrown his timing off.  I also think the gigantic helmet he wore was an indication of his fear.

Some may call those numbers coincidence, but in my opinion they speak volumes.

Mets Stats of Note: It's the Offense (Again)

Let's take a peek at where the Mets stand against the rest of baseball.

Thus far in 2010, the Mets:

• Have allowed the fewest Stolen Bases in baseball, 3 steals against 3 caught.  Contrast this with the Red Sox who have allowed 34 steals and only 1 caught stealing.
• 9th in Team ERA at a solid 3.47.
• Struck Out the second most batters--testament to some very strong pitching early in the year.
• 12th in Batting Average Against--just .247.
• 22nd in Homeruns with just 12 on the season.  After a spring in which balls were flying out of the park, we are once again seeing a shortage of power.
• 25th in Team Batting Average at a paltry .229.   The Dodgers lead all of baseball at .311.
• 27th in OPS...ugh.
• 27th in Extra-Base Hits with only 35.  Toronto has 67 to lead MLB.
• Struck Out 5th most--a maddening 120 Ks already on the young season.  Medic!

David Wright K Rate Slowing Down

David Wright and his strikeout totals are a frequent topic of conversation on SNY.

But truthfully, they are not that bad of late, and he has been trending in a positive direction for a while.

After striking out 113, 113, 115, and 118 times the past four seasons, he in "on pace" for 166 Ks in 2009.

Yes, it's a lot, but a month ago, it was far worse--he was on pace for 190.

• In April, DW struck out once every 3.03 at-bats
• In May, DW struck out once every 3.77 at-bats
• In June, DW is striking out once every 4.53 at-bats

Last year he struck out once every 5.31 at-bats.

If he keeps up with his June pace the rest of the way he will K 147 times on the year. If the positive trend continues and he normalizes to his career rate for the remainder of 2009, he will finish with 137 Ks.

Not great, but not horrible either.

For horrible, look at the current top 5 from among the top 10 strikeout guys in MLB on the year--Chris Davis is on pace for 246 Ks.

Sortable Batting
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Chris Davis	TEX	225	26	44	9	0	13	28	0	0	14	102	.196	.249	.409	.658
2	Mark Reynolds	ARI	258	45	69	15	1	19	49	13	4	33	97	.267	.355	.554	.909
3	Carlos Pena	TAM	251	53	59	15	1	22	52	0	1	49	91	.235	.369	.566	.935
4	Ryan Howard	PHI	269	44	69	17	2	20	55	3	0	28	86	.257	.331	.558	.889
5	B.J. Upton	TAM	267	45	65	15	1	5	24	26	5	32	79	.243	.323	.363	.687
6	Adam Dunn	WAS	244	33	65	10	0	18	50	0	1	55	76	.266	.400	.529	.929
7	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	189	20	48	7	0	6	25	0	2	13	71	.254	.300	.386	.687
8	Alfonso Soriano	CHC	277	44	62	14	0	14	30	7	2	24	70	.224	.289	.426	.715
	David Wright	NYM	257	44	89	21	3	4	39	18	8	41	70	.346	.437	.498	.935
10	Jack Cust	OAK	242	40	55	9	0	13	37	2	0	31	69	.227	.315	.426	.741

The Golden Age....of the Strikeout?

Today is September 12, 2008--there are about 17 games left in the regular season.

It's been a very good season for a variety of reasons. Statistically, nothing really stands out--let me re-phrase that--there is one thing, and we'll get to it in a second.

There's been good slugging, but no one chasing 50+ home runs and 150 RBIs. Ryan Howard leads MLB with 43 HRs, and about a half dozen guys are in the mid-30s.

Good hitting? Sure, but no one is making a run at .400 or even .380. The top hitters for average are Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols, both at about .360, and the next highest guy is Matt Holliday at .329.

Pitching-wise it's been business as usual...there is one 20-game winner, Cliff Lee, and 2 or 3 other guys that might win 20.

So what is different about this year?

It's the strikeout.

Two players have a very good chance at striking out 200+ times on the year: Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds. A third, Jack Cust, will get up to 190.

To put that in perspective, no one, in the entire history of major league baseball, has ever struck out 200 or more times in a season.

Ryan Howard is at 189 and will easily eclipse his record of 199 Ks, which was set just last year.

Mark Reynolds is at 183 and has already Kd 13 times this month.

Jack Cust is "only" at 174, but he's a sure bet to add at least 10-12 more Ks to his total.

In 2005 only 60 players had 100 or more Ks. In 2006, 74 players reached that figure. In 2007, that number rose to 89. If 2008 continues to form, we could see that number topped to over 90 players with 100 or more Ks.

Mets fans should actually take heart--the team has the fewest Ks in the National league and is 3rd in walks. When looking at the K leaders, you have to go all the way down to 41st to find a Met.

So to what do we attribute this continuing rise in Ks over the last few years? Better pitching? A wider strike zone? Technology? I will say: no, no and no. There seems to be another reason, though only a freakenomist would make the connection.

You have to ask--are steroids, or more specifically, a lack of steroids, part of this trend?

I think so. Bats and reflexes are slower, and those "big swings" are still there. The trend in increased Ks began in earnest when the testing and punishment for steroids came into play.

Homerun totals are down, strikeout numbers are up--the variables are the same, the game is the same, the strike zone is the same--in fact, nothing else has really changed at all these past few year--except steroid use.

Welcome to the new era of the "non chemical aided" free swinger....it's not a pretty sight.

Sortable Batting
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Ryan Howard	PHI	560	91	136	25	2	43	129	1	1	72	189	.243	.330	.525	.855
2	Mark Reynolds	ARI	487	84	118	25	3	27	92	10	1	56	183	.242	.321	.472	.794
3	Jack Cust	OAK	434	66	99	16	0	28	66	0	0	96	176	.228	.368	.459	.826
4	Dan Uggla	FLA	478	88	125	37	1	30	84	5	5	65	152	.262	.357	.531	.889
5	Chris Young	ARI	569	76	140	41	6	19	74	12	5	53	151	.246	.309	.439	.749
6	Carlos Pena	TAM	442	70	109	21	2	28	88	1	1	83	148	.247	.374	.493	.867
7	Adam Dunn	CIN/ARI	459	72	110	20	0	36	89	2	1	109	146	.240	.389	.519	.907
8	Matt Kemp	LAD	544	83	155	36	4	16	69	33	9	42	141	.285	.336	.454	.790
9	Jeremy Hermida	FLA	480	70	119	22	3	16	58	6	0	46	131	.248	.322	.406	.728
10	Jim Thome	CHW	448	82	111	26	0	31	84	1	0	80	130	.248	.364	.513	.878