More Proof of Jerry Manuel's Ineptitude

As if there weren't enough proof out there already, let's look at Jerry's big move of the night.

With one out in the 8th and a man on second (pitcher Adam Wainwright hit a double off Toni Stoner), Jerry brought in Pedro Feliciano to face a lefty, Skip Schumaker.

Tony Larussa countered with switch-hitting Felipe Lopez, who battled before striking out.

This brought up righthanded hitting Ryan Ludwick and Jerry's big decision.

Now most managers would have all of the numbers at their disposal to make the choice:  do I leave Feliciano in, or do I bring in a righty?

And what exactly are those numbers?

For his career Ludwick bats .286 against righthanders and .241 against lefthanders.  Now that's interesting, but wait, there's more.

In 2010 Ludwick is hitting .235 against lefty's...yup, 4 for 17...he has a .278 OBP against them.

Against righty's?  A solid .296...8 for 27 with a .345 OBP.

It would appear to be a simple decision--keep Feliciano in the game.

Jerry's call?  Bring in the righty.

This is very typical of the problem with Jerry Manuel...he only thinks in terms of righty vs righty and lefty vs lefty.  He doesn't appear to have the capacity to think past the basic left-right matchup to use statistics and pure fact.

We see this when he constructs his lineup...he desperately pencils in names to go lefty, righty, lefty, right regardless of starting pitcher vs player tendencies, actual performance, and historical matchup.

Look, I beat up on Jerry as much as the next guy, but when the numbers give you an advantage, you take them.

In this case the numbers clearly favored keeping in Feliciano, but as we know, Jerry is not a "numbers guy".

So we wind up with another Mets loss, and another pin for the voodoo doll.

Jubilant with Jason Bay

The Mets pulled off a great move in securing Jason Bay. Matt Holliday has marginally better numbers, but it's much closer than many are making it out to be, and you might just be surprised by the fielding stats.

Bay: 4yr/$66 Mill ($16.5 per) or 5yr/$80 Mill ($16 per)
- 31.3 years old

Holliday: 7yr/$120 Mill ($17.1 per) or 8yr/$137 Mill ($17.1 per)
- 30.0 years old

First the OPS+ over the last 5 seasons:

Bay: 150, 138, 94, 134, 134 (131 average)
Holliday: 114, 137, 151, 138, 139 (137 average)

RBIs over the last 5 seasons:

Bay: 101, 109, 84, 101, 119 (103 average)
Holliday: 87, 114, 137, 88, 109 (107 average)

There are a few other things--Bay has actually averaged 31 HRs to Holliday's 28 over that span, though to be fair, Holliday does edge him out in runs, BA, Slg, and doubles. Both players hit LH and RH pitching almost equally.

The bottom line is they are close...very close.

The fielding thing is being blown way out of proportion. The "Holliday is a good fielder" statements being told hither and yon are simply not supported by the numbers.

In 833 games as a LF, Holliday averages -2.5 rTot/Yr. Bay, the "bad fielder", averages -9.5.

The interesting thing about Bay is that his total is amplified by his 2008 numbers--the worst of his career--at -30.7. He turned it around in 2009 and came in at a solid 7.4 in 2009 while Holliday put up a 0.0.

Bay also had a career high with 15 OF assist in 2009 compared to 1 for Holliday.

Lastly, let's look at their RF/9 (putouts + assists divided by innings played). Bay comes in at 2.09, whereas Holliday is only at 1.91.

So while the jury still may be out on Bay's ability in LF, saying Holliday is a "good fielder" isn't supported by the math.

The Mets made a great move signing Jason Bay--he's a difference maker and a big bat smack dab in the middle of the lineup.

The Golden Age....of the Strikeout?

Today is September 12, 2008--there are about 17 games left in the regular season.

It's been a very good season for a variety of reasons. Statistically, nothing really stands out--let me re-phrase that--there is one thing, and we'll get to it in a second.

There's been good slugging, but no one chasing 50+ home runs and 150 RBIs. Ryan Howard leads MLB with 43 HRs, and about a half dozen guys are in the mid-30s.

Good hitting? Sure, but no one is making a run at .400 or even .380. The top hitters for average are Chipper Jones and Albert Pujols, both at about .360, and the next highest guy is Matt Holliday at .329.

Pitching-wise it's been business as usual...there is one 20-game winner, Cliff Lee, and 2 or 3 other guys that might win 20.

So what is different about this year?

It's the strikeout.

Two players have a very good chance at striking out 200+ times on the year: Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds. A third, Jack Cust, will get up to 190.

To put that in perspective, no one, in the entire history of major league baseball, has ever struck out 200 or more times in a season.

Ryan Howard is at 189 and will easily eclipse his record of 199 Ks, which was set just last year.

Mark Reynolds is at 183 and has already Kd 13 times this month.

Jack Cust is "only" at 174, but he's a sure bet to add at least 10-12 more Ks to his total.

In 2005 only 60 players had 100 or more Ks. In 2006, 74 players reached that figure. In 2007, that number rose to 89. If 2008 continues to form, we could see that number topped to over 90 players with 100 or more Ks.

Mets fans should actually take heart--the team has the fewest Ks in the National league and is 3rd in walks. When looking at the K leaders, you have to go all the way down to 41st to find a Met.

So to what do we attribute this continuing rise in Ks over the last few years? Better pitching? A wider strike zone? Technology? I will say: no, no and no. There seems to be another reason, though only a freakenomist would make the connection.

You have to ask--are steroids, or more specifically, a lack of steroids, part of this trend?

I think so. Bats and reflexes are slower, and those "big swings" are still there. The trend in increased Ks began in earnest when the testing and punishment for steroids came into play.

Homerun totals are down, strikeout numbers are up--the variables are the same, the game is the same, the strike zone is the same--in fact, nothing else has really changed at all these past few year--except steroid use.

Welcome to the new era of the "non chemical aided" free swinger....it's not a pretty sight.

Sortable Batting
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Ryan Howard	PHI	560	91	136	25	2	43	129	1	1	72	189	.243	.330	.525	.855
2	Mark Reynolds	ARI	487	84	118	25	3	27	92	10	1	56	183	.242	.321	.472	.794
3	Jack Cust	OAK	434	66	99	16	0	28	66	0	0	96	176	.228	.368	.459	.826
4	Dan Uggla	FLA	478	88	125	37	1	30	84	5	5	65	152	.262	.357	.531	.889
5	Chris Young	ARI	569	76	140	41	6	19	74	12	5	53	151	.246	.309	.439	.749
6	Carlos Pena	TAM	442	70	109	21	2	28	88	1	1	83	148	.247	.374	.493	.867
7	Adam Dunn	CIN/ARI	459	72	110	20	0	36	89	2	1	109	146	.240	.389	.519	.907
8	Matt Kemp	LAD	544	83	155	36	4	16	69	33	9	42	141	.285	.336	.454	.790
9	Jeremy Hermida	FLA	480	70	119	22	3	16	58	6	0	46	131	.248	.322	.406	.728
10	Jim Thome	CHW	448	82	111	26	0	31	84	1	0	80	130	.248	.364	.513	.878