Was Tom Verducci Right on Mike Pelfrey?

On April 7, 2009, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated put Mike Pelfrey in his cross-hairs.

He singled out Pelfrey for a potential drop-off in performance based on something that has become known as, "The Verducci Effect."

Verducci wrote:

Mike Pelfrey was ready for me in the Mets spring training clubhouse, as if he knew I was coming.

"Look at me," the Mets right-hander said one day last month. "I'm a pretty big guy." Yes, sir. Pelfrey is 6-foot-7. Thankfully, he is a rather pleasant, mild-mannered guy.

I didn't feel threatened, but my theory about young pitchers getting overworked was precisely in Pelfrey's crosshairs. Pelfrey was familiar with my rule of thumb that pitchers 25 and under are at risk of injury or significant regression in the year after their clubs boost their workload by 30 or more innings.

The Mets pushed Pelfrey, then 24, 48 innings beyond his previous professional high in innings pitched last year. The club preferred not to do it. In fact, the Mets had mapped out a plan to get Pelfrey about 180 innings last year, but injuries on their staff and a tight pennant race forced the Mets to keep running him out there, rolling the odometer on his innings up to 200 2/3.

Verducci "red-flagged" 10 pitchers for 2009, and looking at the numbers, his theory can certainly be called accurate, or at least another data point for mapping out a program for young pitcher development.

Here are the pitchers he flagged and their ERA increase from 2008 to 2009:

1. Jon Lester Red Sox: +0.39
2. Cole Hamels Phillies: +1.43
3. Chad Billingsley Dodgers: +0.69
4. Tim Lincecum Giants: -0.29
5. Clayton Kershaw Dodgers: -1.30
6. Dana Eveland A's: +3.66
7. Mike Pelfrey Mets: +1.08
8. John Danks White Sox: +0.50
9. Jair Jurrjens Braves: -0.77
10. Jonathan Niese Mets: Injured

So looking at that list, he was right on 6 of the 9 pitchers (Niese's unfortunate non-pitching injury takes him out of this equation).

Lincecum, Jurrjens and Kershaw are three that have improved since last year, but what of Pelfrey, or Cole Hamels for that matter?

In 2008 Pelfrey had an ERA+ of 113, compared to an ERA+ of 88 in 2009.

He is walking 3.4 per 9 innings vice 2.9 in 2008.

His K/9 is up slightly, however his K/BB is worse.

More troubling are his ERA numbers by month:

2008 season:

4.43, 5.35, 3.52, 2.70, 2.93, 4.06

Compared to 2009:

6.32, 2.92, 6.39, 4.84, 5.10.

It's as if we've been playing, "Where in the world is Mike Pelfrey?" all year long.

Now I won't go as far as saying his jump in innings from 2007 to 2008 is the cause of all of this, but it certainly does make you stop and think.

I only hope that over Pelfrey's final 6 or so starts in 2009 that he finds something to build on going forward.

One thing is for certain, he won't match his 200+ innings total from last year, and that might just be the right approach for the rest of the year--caution. He threw 118 pitches in his last outing, and that, in my opinion, is unnecessary right now.

Pelf Dazzles

When the 2009 MLB schedule came out Mets fans pointed to this series with the Phillies with delight.

This was a weekend to pencil in around your late season vacation plans--a series that would mean everything--the one to watch.

While the season has fallen apart, last night's game certainly made for a great watch, starting with the pitching matchup--the hated Cole Hamels vs Big Mike Pelfrey.

Neither man disappointed Mets fans.

Toss in some timely hitting, a managerial ejection, a few hit batters, and some great relief, and it was the type of win the fanbase has longed for all year--if only it mattered a bit more.

The simple fact of the matter is that we like to beat the Phillies, and they hate to lose to us--if somehow we can pound them the rest of the weekend it would be one small victory in a season devoid of them.

Mike Pelfrey was outstanding, and he recognized how the rivalry helped his game: "I think when you go up against your rival, you have a little extra adrenaline and you're into the game." Pelfrey said.

Pelfrey is now 3-0 with a 3.92 ERA in four starts against Phils this season. He is the only major league pitcher with three wins against Philadelphia this year.

The hitting star of the night was Jeff Francoeur, who had three hits including a homerun. Since joining the Mets, Francoeur is batting .310 with a respectable .340 OBP, and 23 RBIs in 142 at-bats. He is putting the Mets in a position where keeping him around for 2010 is a no-brainer.

Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes combined for two scoreless innings. Stokes is having a terrific season and now sports a 2.89 ERA. Just think back to a few months ago when Stokes was in Jerry's doghouse and woefully underused.

Frankie Rodriguez came on in the 9th and gave us the typical heart palpitations that accompany the majority of his outings. With the tying runners at the corners, the All-Star closer struck out Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for his 27th save in 32 chances.

It's certainly fun to watch Cole Hamels struggle. He is now 0-3 in August and took a beating at the hands of the Mets makeshift lineup, allowing 10 hits in only 5 innings.

Since beating the Mets in his first start against them, Hamels is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts vs. New York. That is a beautiful stat line for a kid who called the Mets "choke artists" in the offseason.

Hopefully Hamels can choke on that stat line.

Even Jerry Manuel showed a bit of fight, getting ejected after the ump clearly blew the call on Francoeur's attempted steal of second in the fifth. Jimmy Rollins clearly missed the tag, and Jerry went off on the ump, getting ejected in the process.

"We've got to continue to fight as best we can," Jerry Manuel said. "When we feel that things are against us, we've got to continue to stand up against those things."

As if all this wasn't enough, the drama continued--Sheff was tossed, and we saw another example of Luis "Brainfart" Castillo failing to cover first base on a bunt that Murph charged.

That loaded the bases for the Phillies, but Big Pelf took care of business by inducing consecutive popups from pinch-hitter Ben Francisco and Jimmy Rollins--it was a scintillating sequence for the lanky right-hander and showed how tough he can be under pressure.

"That's what won the game for him," Charlie Manuel said.

All in all a great game--if only it had meant a little more.

Good Morning Mets Fans!

Friday night I crashed your party
Saturday I said I'm sorry
Sunday came and trashed me out again
I was only having fun
Wasn't hurting anyone
And we all enjoyed the weekend for a change.

And what a weekend it was!

Mets lose Friday, Saturday we get rained out, Sunday afternoon Pedro gets knocked around and Jamie Moyer shuts us down.

Then, just when the "choke" word was being bandied about by the more exasperated members of Met Nation (I didn't say idiots!), something happened.

That "something" is named Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana.

Johan Santana was an ace, a stopper, and maybe, just maybe, a bit more than that.

Jerry Manuel flashed the bat signal high above Gotham before last night's game and the medium sized man with the broad shoulders answered the call.

Johan Santana tossed 7 1/3 innings of 2 run baseball in the biggest start of his 2008 campaign. In getting the win he is now 13-7 with a sparkling 2.70 ERA. In his last 12 starts he is 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA.

"I knew I had to step it up," he said after the 6-3 victory over the Phillies that restored a two-game lead in the NL East. "This is one of the reasons why I'm here."

"That's why we have a Johan," Manuel said. "That's why you have an ace."

His performance was vintage Santana. He started the game somewhat slowly and allowed the Phils a run in the first inning while he fought with his control. The inning had the feel of a "crooked number" inning, but Santana fought and fought and escaped the jam nearly unscathed.

The only other run he allowed was an opposite field solo blast from slugger Ryan Howard on a pitch that missed his location by two inches--it was all Howard needed.

All in all he tossed 116 pitches worth of ace, and his teammates appreciated the effort.

"He did what an ace is supposed to do," said Delgado. "He stopped the bleeding."

As Santana walked off the mound in the 8th the sellout crowd at Shea showered him with applause and appreciation for a job exceptionally well done--Santana tipped his cap and settled in to watch his team finish the job.

While Santana did his thing from the mound, the real star of the night was Carlos Delgado.

In the first inning Delgado plated two with an sharp single up the middle--it was a foreshadowing of big things yet to come. All told the Mets scored 3 that inning and put the Phils back on their heels a bit.

In the third inning Phillies starter Cole Hamels hung a breaking ball over the middle of the plate and Delgado blasted it deep over the center field wall for a solo homerun. It was a significant shot because the Phils had narrowed the lead to a single run in the top of the frame.

Shea was buzzing over the blast, but the really big bomb was yet to come. In the bottom of the fifth Delgado again strode to the plate--Hamels was still in the game, the score was 4-2 Mets, and Shea was humming.

Hamels tried to fool Delgado on a slurvy looking changeup, but the ball came in right over the middle of the plate and Delgado crushed it--really crushed it. It was estimated at 460 feet and really, who knows how far it went? It was hit so far that it left the stadium and probably rolled to Citi Field. An awe inspiring, Ruthian blast that sent shockwaves through Shea.

The fans clamored for a curtain call, and the noise grew and grew until Delgado emerged from the dugout to a thunderous ovation and chants of "M-V-P! M-V-P!"

Delgado loved it, "It's way nicer than the boos," he said with a smile. "This isn't the kind of script that you wanted, but it's working out OK."

Carlos leads the Mets in HRs and is second in RBIs. He stands 3rd in the NL in dingers and 4th in RBIs and is making a case for consideration for MVP honors. There has been no better slugger since June 27th--he leads all of baseball in HRs and RBIs since that day--an amazing 65 RBIs in 65 games.

He also likes the Mets chances down the stretch, "We think we're the team to beat," Delgado said. "We feel very confident that we can get this done, definitely a different atmosphere here, a different feeling than it was last year."

But it wasn't all good news for the Mets yesterday. In addition to Pedro getting pounded in game 1, Billy Wagner pitches, felt pain in his elbow, and is more than likely done for the year.

Thankfully Luis Ayala, the former Washington National castoff, has pitched well in the closer spot. He earned his 6th save in 7 chances yesterday, and seems well-suited for the role with his ability to throw strikes early in the count.

As for this morning, enjoy the win, take a breath with another off-day today, and get ready for the Nats.

The Mets are 2 games up on the Phils with 19 left to play...there sure is nothing like a pennant race!

Enjoy your coffee!

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia (78-65)	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	2
N.Y. Mets (80-63) «	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	x	6	10	1

Player of the Game

New York

C. Delgado	AB	4
	R	2
	H	3
	HR	2
	RBI	4