Pelf Dazzles

When the 2009 MLB schedule came out Mets fans pointed to this series with the Phillies with delight.

This was a weekend to pencil in around your late season vacation plans--a series that would mean everything--the one to watch.

While the season has fallen apart, last night's game certainly made for a great watch, starting with the pitching matchup--the hated Cole Hamels vs Big Mike Pelfrey.

Neither man disappointed Mets fans.

Toss in some timely hitting, a managerial ejection, a few hit batters, and some great relief, and it was the type of win the fanbase has longed for all year--if only it mattered a bit more.

The simple fact of the matter is that we like to beat the Phillies, and they hate to lose to us--if somehow we can pound them the rest of the weekend it would be one small victory in a season devoid of them.

Mike Pelfrey was outstanding, and he recognized how the rivalry helped his game: "I think when you go up against your rival, you have a little extra adrenaline and you're into the game." Pelfrey said.

Pelfrey is now 3-0 with a 3.92 ERA in four starts against Phils this season. He is the only major league pitcher with three wins against Philadelphia this year.

The hitting star of the night was Jeff Francoeur, who had three hits including a homerun. Since joining the Mets, Francoeur is batting .310 with a respectable .340 OBP, and 23 RBIs in 142 at-bats. He is putting the Mets in a position where keeping him around for 2010 is a no-brainer.

Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes combined for two scoreless innings. Stokes is having a terrific season and now sports a 2.89 ERA. Just think back to a few months ago when Stokes was in Jerry's doghouse and woefully underused.

Frankie Rodriguez came on in the 9th and gave us the typical heart palpitations that accompany the majority of his outings. With the tying runners at the corners, the All-Star closer struck out Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for his 27th save in 32 chances.

It's certainly fun to watch Cole Hamels struggle. He is now 0-3 in August and took a beating at the hands of the Mets makeshift lineup, allowing 10 hits in only 5 innings.

Since beating the Mets in his first start against them, Hamels is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts vs. New York. That is a beautiful stat line for a kid who called the Mets "choke artists" in the offseason.

Hopefully Hamels can choke on that stat line.

Even Jerry Manuel showed a bit of fight, getting ejected after the ump clearly blew the call on Francoeur's attempted steal of second in the fifth. Jimmy Rollins clearly missed the tag, and Jerry went off on the ump, getting ejected in the process.

"We've got to continue to fight as best we can," Jerry Manuel said. "When we feel that things are against us, we've got to continue to stand up against those things."

As if all this wasn't enough, the drama continued--Sheff was tossed, and we saw another example of Luis "Brainfart" Castillo failing to cover first base on a bunt that Murph charged.

That loaded the bases for the Phillies, but Big Pelf took care of business by inducing consecutive popups from pinch-hitter Ben Francisco and Jimmy Rollins--it was a scintillating sequence for the lanky right-hander and showed how tough he can be under pressure.

"That's what won the game for him," Charlie Manuel said.

All in all a great game--if only it had meant a little more.

Bad Jerry Manuel Decision #75

First off, congrats to Jerry for reaching this milestone so quickly.

Let's set up the situation:

Game tied in the 7th
Chad Durbin on in relief
Durbin gives up a line drive hit, then proceeds to walk David Wright on 5 pitches
Fernando Tatis up

So it's no outs in the 7th of a tie game, men on 1st and second, and a struggling reliever. Tatis up, Church on Deck, Santos in the hole.

What would you do? What did Jerry do?

Jerry gives up an out by sacrificing Tatis. The same Tatis that hasn't had a sacrifice in 7 years. He "avoids the double play" by doing this and gets Ryan Church up in a sac fly situation.

But wait, Charlie Manuel has been in the game a few years, so of course he walks Ryan Church.

Jerry just took the bat out of Tatis and Church's hands, gave up an out, and lost the strategic advantage.

Don't believe me? Let's look at the scoring probability table taken from data over a 3-year period:

Base/Out   0      1      2
Empty    .293   .173   .077
1st      .437   .283   .136
2nd      .632   .406   .223
3rd      .864   .662   .263
1st/2nd  .641   .426   .231
1st/3rd  .876   .655   .285
2nd/3rd  .856   .695   .276
Loaded   .872   .670   .325

With men on first and second and no outs, the scoring probability is .641. When you give up an out and bunt them over you improve the scoring probability to .695. So with a successful sacrifice you've improved your scoring chance by .054. Then, because of the subsequent walk to Church to load the bases, it's again reduced to .670.

All told, the bunt and intentional walk gave the Mets a .029 advantage.

So in that situation, you ask a guy who hasn't sacrificed in 7 years to bunt to give up and out and improve your scoring chances by a whopping .029. And that doesn't take into account the value of the out itself in the grand scheme of the game.

With only 9 outs remaining each is worth a minimum of .111 run potentials. So in essence you had a .641 already, and removed .111 for a net loss of .082....and that is assuming a successful sac bunt.

And remember, this is just the pure math--doesn't take into account who is pitching and who is hitting. Moreover, he took the bat out of veteran major league hitters hands to allow the Phillies to get to Omir Santos.

Now I like Santos a lot, but why lose your strategic advantage? At that point in the game there were 9 outs left, why give one of them up?

Why are we playing for one run in the 7th? In the 9th, of course, but the 7th?

The worst part of this is that Jerry has had the Mets sac bunt a ton all year--they are second in baseball to the Reds--for comparison the Mets have 36 Sac Bunts to 2 for the Red Sox and 22 for the Dodgers. The move has generally not worked; in fact, it's taken the Mets out of many rally's and shortened games for the opposition.

Yes, I realize the Mets play in the NL, but when you look at the Sac Bunts, you see 6 for Castillo, 4 for Cora, 3 for Murphy, 2 for Pagan, and one each for Schneider, Tatis and Church.

Position players have sac bunted 18 times of the Mets 36 total--half.

Again, the Red Sox have two (one each by Pedroia and Ellsbury).

An out is the most precious thing in baseball, you don't give one up in the 7th in that situation against a struggling reliever with a guy that can't bunt.

The logic is bad, the math is bad, and the Mets were a blown call by the ump away from having zero result there (he absolutely interfered with the catcher).

Serenity now.