Takahashi has Amazing Control Numbers

I was looking at Takahashi's advanced pitching statistics this morning, and the numbers are just off the charts.

His control, the speeds, and the K and BB numbers are enough to make any manager smile.

Couple this with his poise and belief in himself, and you can see why the Mets have done so well with him on the mound.

Summary - Pitch Result

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
FF	278	44.1%	72.7%	47.8%	7.6%	23.7%	16.5%
CH	118	18.7%	64.4%	47.5%	12.7%	16.9%	17.8%
FT	59	9.4%	59.3%	54.2%	22.0%	15.3%	16.9%
SI	57	9.0%	70.2%	64.9%	24.6%	21.1%	19.3%
CU	55	8.7%	50.9%	34.5%	10.9%	16.4%	7.3%
SL	52	8.3%	57.7%	42.3%	11.5%	21.2%	9.6%
FC	10	1.6%	50.0%	50.0%	30.0%	10.0%	10.0%
FA	1	0.2%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

His primary pitch is actually the fastball, which he works off of to great effect.  He is getting 72.7% strikes on the four-seamer.

How good is that?  Santana gets 71.1%.  A guy like Ollie Perez sits in the low 60s.

The amazing display of control we've seen from Tak has resulted in an extremely high K rate.  The hitters know that he will work the zone, or just off it, and you can see the confusion on their face with each pitch.  Hitters aren't up there waiting for a walk, they're up there and defensive, often falling behind in the count early.

He is only walk 6.33% of hitters.  How good?  Tim Lincecum walks 12.59% of hitters he faces.

His overall at bat result numbers:

Summary - At-bat Result

Strikeout	27.22%
Flyout	14.56%
Groundout	13.92%
Single	12.66%
Double	6.96%
Walk	6.33%
Pop Out	4.43%
Lineout	3.80%
Intent Walk	3.16%
Sac Bunt	2.53%
Forceout	1.27%
Grounded Into DP	1.27%
Home Run	0.63%
Strikeout - DP	0.63%
Sac Fly	0.63%

Finally there is the location itself.  He throws strikes, he is on the corners, and he keeps his pitches down.  I don't have the time to post a bunch of comparison pics, but here are Taks and Lincecums.  What you see from Tak below is as good as it gets.  I challenge you to find a tighter overall dispersion than Tak is putting up this year.

Here is Lincecum's:

 The Mets have really found themselves a gem.

Jason Bay Can Right the Ship This Weekend

Jason Bay has struggled in May to the tune of a .111 BA, .190 OBP, .111 Slg, and .301 OPS in 18 at-bats.

Fortunately for Mets fans the team is home this weekend and facing a club with a pitching staff that Bay has crushed throughout his career.

Here's what he's done against the Giants staff in his career:

PITCHER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Todd Wellemeyer	16	3	0	0	2	5	0	8	.188	.222	.563	.785
Guillermo Mota	6	3	0	0	2	3	0	2	.500	.500	1.500	2.000
Barry Zito	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.400	.400	.400	.800
Matt Cain	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	.800	.857	1.000	1.857
Jonathan Sanchez	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.333	.500	.333	.833
Tim Lincecum	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.333	.333	.333	.667
Jeremy Affeldt	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.500	.667	.500	1.167
Brandon Medders	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Brian Wilson	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.500	.000	.500
Totals	43	16	1	0	4	9	5	14	.372	.440	.674	1.114

Those numbers alone have to make you smile, but there is another important point--Bay has hit well in Citi Field thus far.

On the year he has a .309 BA, .433 OPS, .545 Slg and .978 OPS in 55 Citi Field at-bats.

If the weekend goes as the numbers predict, Bay is back, and with a vengeance.

Interesting Baseball Developments (Updated)

Last month I wrote about other interesting baseball developments and thought it would be a good time to update the numbers.

With 196 hits, Ichiro is on pace for 231....this will mark the 9th consecutive season that he has 200 hits or more, a new baseball record (currently shares the record with Wee Willie Keeler). Pete Rose had the most 200+ hit seasons with 10, and Ichiro is very likely to break that as well in 2 years.

When I wrote this last month Joe Mauer was making a run at .400 and hitting over .380. He has cooled off a bit and is currently batting .367. After batting .391 in August he is "only" hitting .360 for the month of September.

The amazing Albert Pujols is almost on pace for a 50+ HR and near 150 RBI season. This would be the first 150 RBI season in the National League since Sammy Sosa did it in 2001. Pujols will easily get over 50 homeruns (he has 47), but will need a serious RBI push to reach 150 (he is at 124).

Brian Roberts is on pace for an eye-popping 58 doubles (yes, my eyes just literally popped out of their sockets). The all-time single season doubles record is 67, and we haven't seen a player have 60 in a season since 1936! With a bit of a push Roberts can get to 60, and no one is even talking about it outside of Baltimore.

Tim Lincecum's shot at 300 Ks is gone, but he was "almost there". There have been sixty-three 300 K seasons in baseball history and none since 2004. Lincecum was scratched from his last start with back spasms, and there are real concerns for his health for the remainder of the year. By the way, Lincecum is making $650K this year for a Giants team fighting for their playoff lives.

As for the Mets, well, it's certainly nice to get a few guys back from injury. That said, these guys don't seem to be embracing the spoiler role the way a younger team would. It's more like a bunch of guys auditioning for next year.

Thank God for football.

Was Tom Verducci Right on Mike Pelfrey?

On April 7, 2009, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated put Mike Pelfrey in his cross-hairs.

He singled out Pelfrey for a potential drop-off in performance based on something that has become known as, "The Verducci Effect."

Verducci wrote:

Mike Pelfrey was ready for me in the Mets spring training clubhouse, as if he knew I was coming.

"Look at me," the Mets right-hander said one day last month. "I'm a pretty big guy." Yes, sir. Pelfrey is 6-foot-7. Thankfully, he is a rather pleasant, mild-mannered guy.

I didn't feel threatened, but my theory about young pitchers getting overworked was precisely in Pelfrey's crosshairs. Pelfrey was familiar with my rule of thumb that pitchers 25 and under are at risk of injury or significant regression in the year after their clubs boost their workload by 30 or more innings.

The Mets pushed Pelfrey, then 24, 48 innings beyond his previous professional high in innings pitched last year. The club preferred not to do it. In fact, the Mets had mapped out a plan to get Pelfrey about 180 innings last year, but injuries on their staff and a tight pennant race forced the Mets to keep running him out there, rolling the odometer on his innings up to 200 2/3.

Verducci "red-flagged" 10 pitchers for 2009, and looking at the numbers, his theory can certainly be called accurate, or at least another data point for mapping out a program for young pitcher development.

Here are the pitchers he flagged and their ERA increase from 2008 to 2009:

1. Jon Lester Red Sox: +0.39
2. Cole Hamels Phillies: +1.43
3. Chad Billingsley Dodgers: +0.69
4. Tim Lincecum Giants: -0.29
5. Clayton Kershaw Dodgers: -1.30
6. Dana Eveland A's: +3.66
7. Mike Pelfrey Mets: +1.08
8. John Danks White Sox: +0.50
9. Jair Jurrjens Braves: -0.77
10. Jonathan Niese Mets: Injured

So looking at that list, he was right on 6 of the 9 pitchers (Niese's unfortunate non-pitching injury takes him out of this equation).

Lincecum, Jurrjens and Kershaw are three that have improved since last year, but what of Pelfrey, or Cole Hamels for that matter?

In 2008 Pelfrey had an ERA+ of 113, compared to an ERA+ of 88 in 2009.

He is walking 3.4 per 9 innings vice 2.9 in 2008.

His K/9 is up slightly, however his K/BB is worse.

More troubling are his ERA numbers by month:

2008 season:

4.43, 5.35, 3.52, 2.70, 2.93, 4.06

Compared to 2009:

6.32, 2.92, 6.39, 4.84, 5.10.

It's as if we've been playing, "Where in the world is Mike Pelfrey?" all year long.

Now I won't go as far as saying his jump in innings from 2007 to 2008 is the cause of all of this, but it certainly does make you stop and think.

I only hope that over Pelfrey's final 6 or so starts in 2009 that he finds something to build on going forward.

One thing is for certain, he won't match his 200+ innings total from last year, and that might just be the right approach for the rest of the year--caution. He threw 118 pitches in his last outing, and that, in my opinion, is unnecessary right now.

Interesting Baseball Developments

I've been so focused on the Mets woes that I've almost forgotten about the rest of the league.

For instance:

With 175 hits already, Ichiro is on pace for 245....this will mark the 9th consecutive season that he has 200 hits or more, a new baseball record (currently shares the record with Wee Willie Keeler). Pete Rose had the most 200+ hit seasons with 10, and Ichiro is very likely to break that as well in 2 years.

Joe Mauer is making a run at .400. He is currently batting .380 and has raised his average from .353 to .380 in his last 14 games with a stellar .476 batting average in August.

The amazing Albert Pujols is almost on pace for a 50 HR and 150 RBI season. This would be the first 150 RBI season in the National League since Sammy Sosa did it in 2001.

Brian Roberts is on pace for an eye-popping 62 doubles (yes, my eyes just literally popped out of their sockets). The all-time single season doubles record is 67, and we haven't seen a player have 60 in a season since 1936!

The incomparable Tim Lincecum has a good shot at 300 Ks. There have been sixty-three 300 K seasons in baseball history and none since 2004. By the way, Lincecum is making $650K this year.

Of course there are some great pennant races as well, and the Mets can play a spoiler role.

Bottom line is it's past time to remember that we are baseball fans too.