Mets Starting Pitching: So Far, So Good

Thanks to a really nice effort from Livan Hernandez, the Mets starters get a "B" for their first time through the rotation.

To recap:

NY Mets	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA

Santana (W, 1-0)

5.2

3

1

1

4

7

0

1.59

Pelfrey (W, 1-0)

5.0

5

4

4

4

2

1

7.20

Perez (L, 0-1)

4.1

5

8

8

5

7

1

16.62

Maine(no-dec)

5.0

2

2

2

1

5

2

3.60

Hernandez (W, 1-0)

6.2

6

2

2

3

4

0

2.70

All told Mets starters won 3 games and went 26 and 2/3 innings with 25 Ks. The only truly bad start came from Ollie Perez.

Ollie, It Was Always You...Really

Do you count yourself amongst the Mets fans who always thought re-signing Ollie Perez was priority #1 for Omar?

Here's a virtual hand slap from one brother to another.

Yes, I am happy...very happy. Oliver Perez has 15-18 win upside, is lefthanded, a power pitcher, and he demonstrated a ton of big game moxie in 2008.

I recently wrote a piece that details my thinking, and I want to repeat just a bit of it here:

Yes, there is the old "good Ollie/bad Ollie" stuff to trot out like a worn shoe and debate over until the cows come home.

So why should he stay? The answer is innings.

At the prime age of 27, Ollie Perez is an innings eater, and he has now entered the "pitching prime" zone of 27-32.

In 2008 Ollie Perez had the following innings by month stats:

Months

Direct Link

 I Split         G   GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP
+-+------------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+-
  April/March     6   6  0  2  2  0  0   0  29.0
   May            5   5  0  2  1  0  0   0  30.2
   June           6   6  0  2  2  0  0   0  30.2
   July           5   5  0  1  1  0  0   0  32.2
   August         6   6  0  2  1  0  0   0  38.1
   Sept/Oct       6   6  0  1  0  0  0   0  32.2

For a #3/#4 starter, those are outstanding numbers, and he figures to reliably stay at or near the 200 IP range for the foreseeable future.

Still not convinced? OK, let me throw another stat at you--3.95 road ERA. That figure was 16th best in the NL, and 2nd best among Mets starters, trailing only Johan Santana. Ollie, for all his faults, is a road warrior.

We could go on about how well he pitched in big games, how he fared against our rivals, etc, but the bottom line is the Mets need to make a strong pitch for Ollie and match whatever offer he gets.

Now the good part about all this is that by practicing patience, the Mets are on the verge of signing Perez to what can best be described as a "fair deal". The current numbers being bandied about are 3 years and $30M.

After the season ended most folks thought Ollie was likely to sign for $12M-$13M per season, so $10M a year seems like a reasonable price to pay for a guy with Ollie's stuff and NY pedigree.

There are more questions to be answered in the rotation (I'm still not convinced on Tim Redding, though he is saying all the right things right now and seems like a great guy), but with Ollie back in the fold, the 2009 staff suddenly looks a whole lot better.

Derek Lowe Will Sign With the Mets...I Think

I've been chuckling a bit at the Derek Lowe "saga".

Bottom line is this: there is a limited market for Lowe, and the Mets made an obviously lowball offer for him, so there is a next step, and a counter-step, and a final step.

So what's next? It will happen as follows...

A little Scott Boras newspaper bingo, a little "he said, we said", and then a deal is made.

The deal will most likely look as follows: 3 years, with $42M guaranteed, and a club option 4th year at $16M for a total of 4 years and $58M if all pans out.

The Mets "get their guy", Boras, "get his deal", and everyone leaves happy.

Look for it to happen next week....I think.

Happy New Year!

Whither Ollie Perez?

Count me among those who think the Mets should ink Ollie Perez to a long-term deal. Yes, there is the old "good Ollie/bad Ollie" stuff to trot out like a worn shoe and debate over until the cows come home.

So why should he stay? The answer is innings.

At the prime age of 27, Ollie Perez is an innings eater, and he is about has now entered the "pitching prime" zone of 27-32.

In 2008 Ollie Perez had the following innings by month stats:

Months

Direct Link

 I Split         G   GS GF  W  L  S CG SHO   IP  
+-+------------+---+---+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+-
  April/March     6   6  0  2  2  0  0   0  29.0    
   May            5   5  0  2  1  0  0   0  30.2 
   June           6   6  0  2  2  0  0   0  30.2  
   July           5   5  0  1  1  0  0   0  32.2  
   August         6   6  0  2  1  0  0   0  38.1  
   Sept/Oct       6   6  0  1  0  0  0   0  32.2 

For a #3/#4 starter, those are outstanding numbers, and he figures to reliably stay at or above the 200 IP range for the foreseeable future.

Still not convinced? OK, let me throw another stat at you--3.95 road ERA. That figure was 16th best in the NL, and 2nd best among Mets starters, trailing only Johan Santana. Ollie, for all his faults, is a road warrior.

We could go on about how well he pitched in big games, how he fared against our rivals, etc, but the bottom line is the Mets need to make a strong pitch for Ollie and match whatever offer he gets.

The hometown advantage should give the Mets the edge.

The Brilliance of Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey continues to amaze Mets fans with his outstanding pitching. He tossed a complete game 3-hitter tonight and left 50,000 screaming Mets fans enraptured as he closed out the game in fine fashion.

Now 12-8 on the year, the Mets young stud leads the team in victories and continues to go deep into games to help the pitching staff.

He totally rewarded manager Jerry Manuel's confidence in him by punching out Chipper Jones and inducing two weak flyouts to finish the 9th inning in style.

Mike Pelfrey Stats

We'll have more in the morning, but suffice it to say that Mike Pelfrey was brilliant tonight.

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Atlanta (56-71)	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	3	2
N.Y. Mets (70-57) «	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	x	6	6	0

Player of the Game

New York

M. Pelfrey	IP	9.0
	H	3
	ER	3
	BB	3
	K	3

The Pitching Matchups

Johan Santana (8-7, 3.10 ERA, 1.224 WHIP) vs Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA, 1.417 WHIP)

Game 1--Santana did have a bad outing vice Cincy, but he's pitched very well against the Phils this year, and Santana is a big game pitcher. Blanton hasn't pitched in two weeks and is making his Philly debut.

Advantage : Mets

John Maine (8-7, 4,22 ERA, 1.354 WHIP) vs Brett Myers (3-9, 5.84 ERA, 1.564 WHIP)

Game 2--John Maine has been pretty awful of late--he is OK early in games, then seems to fade--Mets hope this is a turnaround game for him. Brett Myers is coming back off a stint in the minors, hasn't pitched in the big leagues a month, has an 8.18 road ERA in 2008, and he has been awful.

Advantage: Mets

Oliver Perez (6-6, 4.36 ERA, 1.427 WHIP) vs Jamie Moyer (9-6, 3.90 ERA, 1.358 WHIP)

Game 3--We've had quite a bit of good Ollie of late, but there's always that little part of the back of your mind that worries. Ollie has pitched very well against the Phils. Jamie Moyer is having an excellent season, and he's handcuffed the Mets in three starts this year, allowing only 7 earned runs and 18 2/3rds innings.

Advantage: Push

Good Morning Mets Fans!

The Mets absolutely pummeled the Dodgers yesterday, winning 12-1 in a game that they dominated from start to finish.

John Maine was a horse and had superb control and nice movement on his pitches, going 8 1/3 and taking a shutout into the 9th before finally wearing down.

The Mets hit, and hit, and hit, and hit with RISP, then hit some more.

Ryan Church continues to rake...what a solid player...has all the tools and is showing nice power...his slugging % is climbing nicely.

The Mets played great defense, including an acrobatic catch by Angel Pagan that Vin Scully (a class act), raved about all game long.

BTW, I decided to watch the Dodgers broadcast yesterday, and it was a real pleasure listening to Vin Scully...brought back a lot of memories...he's a national treasure.

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
N.Y. Mets «	0	4	1	0	6	1	0	0	0	12	13	0
L.A. Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	0

W: J. Maine (4-2) L: B. Penny (5-3) HR: NYM - R. Church (6) LA - None

Recap/Box · GameCenter

And we're all asking ourselves the same questions this morning---are the Mets finally ready to make their run? Have the injuries, slumps, leadership and chemistry issues now turned to the Mets favor?

I say yes, and here's why.

First look at the schedule....the Mets have an 8 day homestand with a day off up front, and then they go "away" against the Yanks, followed by another off day. Of those 11 games, there are three day games.

Our guys will be sleeping in their own beds for the next two weeks with plenty of rest.

The starters are pitching better, and yes I will include Ollie Perez here. He had an extremely rough outing two starts ago, but he looked decent against the Dodgers despite the three home runs. Ollie is going to make his run.

John Maine and Johan Santana are locks for 6+ innings of low run ball. They sport a 3.00 and 2.91 ERA respectively.

Mike Pelfrey and Figgy have kept the Mets in every game they've pitched.

The offense is getting there. Carlos Beltran hit the ball hard yesterday, and we saw good swings from David Wright, Luis Castillo, and pretty much the whole lineup.

Moises Alou singlehandedly changes this entire lineup....guys hit where they are supposed to when he's in there, and everybody can relax just that little bit more.

The Mets are continuing to take a lot of walks; in fact they are third in the National League in this category, so their OBP is decent despite a poor batting average.

Will the fans get behind these guys starting Friday? I sure as hell hope so.

This season, metaphorically speaking, is a great big amusement park, and thus far we've only ridden a handful of crappy rides. We're now in line for the big bopper rollercoaster, with the thrills and excitement we came for....the tension and excitement are mounting as we anticipate the greatness that we expected when we were on our way here....the time has finally arrived.

We'll be on that thrill ride come Friday, and we'll be on it for a long time.

Enjoy your coffee and say thanks to Willie Randolph for shaking things up a bit and a good lineup yesterday.

The Mets, The Mets, The Mets

One bit of good news to start off your day. Brian Schneider's thumb has gone from this to this:

I think having him back on the field will help a ton.

Yesterday was brutal. Ollie Perez absolutely melted down in what could have been his easiest game of the year.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that there isn't all that much to say this morning. It was a "bad beat", and you just have to chalk it up to one of those things. How often does a game get delayed 40 minutes for a freakin water main break?

It was an omen.

Apparently Ramon Castro tweaked his leg again yesterday....unbelievable. Hope for the best, but word is he walked really slowly off the field after injuring himself last night in a rehab game.

The Broadway opening of Angel Pagan and the Mets defense yesterday in their new hit "Fielding Follies" was a real crowd pleaser.

Oh good! Billy Wagner is starting to rip his teammates in public....that always goes over well.

Anyway, let's make something happen in Arizona....we did win three in a row before yesterday's beating, so all is not lost on this writer...win another series, play another game, fight the good fight always.

--Dave