Numbers Say Bad Trade, I Say Good Trade

The Mets traded backup catcher, and fan favorite, Ramon Castro to the White Sox for Lance Broadway.

Omir Santos, the current fan favorite, has hit well since coming up to the big leagues, though he has really terrible minor league numbers.

How bad? Let's just say his minor league statistical history tells us he will come back to Earth in the hitting department, but hopefully he keeps the ride going a while longer.

In parts of 9 minor league seasons he has a .258 BA, .303 OBP, .348 Slg and .650 OPS. That, my friends, is bottom of the barrel bad.

That said, Omir has hit and played well with the Mets. After going 2-for-5 Friday, he is hitting .276 in 27 games, with three homers and 17 RBI.

The hard part of this trade to swallow is that the Mets traded power. Ramon Castro hit .253 in 26 games, with three homers and 13 RBI, and has had some big homeruns for the Mets. He was always a solid late game pinch-hitting option if the Mets needed a big hit, though for some reason Jerry Manuel rarely used him in that situation, opting for just about anyone else. He only pinch-hit 4 times this year.

He has also had a lot of injuries, and at age 33, that situation is likely to get worse, not better. One of the running jokes amongst Mets writers and fans were "when will Ramon go to the DL" polls.

But the key to the trade isn't Omir, or Santos or Broadway--it's Brian Schneider.

Schneider has not hit this year (.143 BA), and he hit poorly in the first half of last year.

But take heart Mets fans, he had a very good second half of 2008, and if he returns to that form, the Mets will be in very good shape behind the plate.

Schneider played his best ball of the year in August and September, hitting .274 with 7 homeruns and 18 RBIs in 106 at-bats. That is terrific production from a catcher.

So a little hope from me:

I believe Omir Santos will continue to make contact (lord knows he won't walk) and play solid defense while calling a good game. Brian Schneider comes back healthy, rested, and capable of contributing to the offense, and the Mets have a solid, injury free duo from here on out.

I like Ramon, always have, and the numbers may say bad trade, but I like it.

Good Morning Mets Fans!

Today we'll play a little forgive and forget.

Carlos Delgado is forgiven for his drop in the bottom of the ninth because of his clutch bases loaded hit in the top of the inning that plated two huge runs.

Delgado had no explanation for the drop. "I really don't know," he said. "The only thing I can tell you is I missed it, I clanked it, whatever."

David Wright is forgiven for 2 more strikeouts because he had 2 hits on the night and is working his ass off to get his swing where he needs it to be. He is 10-for-27 in the past seven games, with three doubles and a triple in addition to a homerun on Tuesday.

"He's had some flaws in his swing," manager Jerry Manuel said. "He's so gifted and good that he could still survive."

Luis Castillo is forgiven for his error in the 8th. Castillo is very intense this year and has a .400+ OBP to go along with his .328 batting average.

Ryan Church is forgiven for his slump because of his outfield defense--I believe he quietly saved at least one run yesterday. That said, it would be really nice for him to start hitting again to afford some protection to the three guys in front of him.

Frankie Rodriguez is forgiven for "almost" blowing this one (with some help). He is 7 for 7 in save opportunities with a sparkling 1.54 ERA and 16 Ks in 11.2 innings pitched.

Livan Hernandez had an outstanding start. He gave up seven hits and one run in 6 1/3 innings and is now 2-1 on the year. His off-speed pitches were working beautifully in the Atlanta air and had a very nice tailing movement.

"I got a little more old and the changeup is better, I don't know why," said the 34-year-old Hernandez, who threw only 75 pitches.

Hernandez was helped by three double plays which ended the third, fourth and sixth innings.

"When he is on his game, he can induce you into double plays," Manuel said. "That keeps his pitch count down.

"He has great command. If he continues to pitch that way, he will be a tremendous starter for us."

Daniel Murphy remains hot.

2009 Season Stats
SPLITS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Season	24	83	17	26	2	1	3	11	10	6	1	0	.313	.379	.470	.849
Career	73	214	41	67	11	4	5	28	28	34	1	2	.313	.390	.472	.862
Last 7	7	20	4	7	0	1	2	4	4	0	1	0	.350	.440	.750	1.190
Projected	161	557	114	174	13	7	20	74	67	40	7	0	.313	.379	.470	.849

Murph has started to amp up the power a little bit. I expect him to start hitting doubles in bunches and finish with over 30 on the year.

Just want to give a little NY Sports Dog "tip of the cap" to Ramon Castro. The big catcher was 3 for 5 on the night, which is great, but I really want to commend his attitude.

When Brian Schneider went down I'm sure Ramon felt he would get the bulk of the playing time, but Omir Santos came on and did a great job--and he also became Jerry Manuel's new toy. Imagine Castro's embarrassment last week when he was pinch-hit for by Santos with the bases loaded?

But we've heard nothing but positives from Ramon, he has kept his head up, and when he's played, he's played well.

With this win the Mets are now only 2.5 games back of the first place Phillies with Johan on the mound tonight.

Win these two, then play three against Pittsburgh, and who knows where the Mets will be come Monday morning.

They just might be on top.

Enjoy your coffee!

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
N.Y. Mets (12-13) «	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	11	2
Atlanta (11-15)	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	3	10	2

Player of the Game

New York R. Castro AB 5 R 0 H 3 HR 0 RBI 1

New York Mets
Hitters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	LOB	AVG
Jose Reyes, SS	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	.257
Daniel Murphy, LF	4	1	1	0	1	0	3	.313
Francisco Rodriguez, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Carlos Beltran, CF	4	1	2	0	1	1	1	.404
Carlos Delgado, 1B	5	0	2	2	0	2	3	.260
David Wright, 3B	5	1	2	1	0	2	6	.299
Ryan Church, RF	4	0	0	0	1	2	2	.272
Ramon Castro, C	5	0	3	1	0	0	1	.286
Luis Castillo, 2B	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	.328
Livan Hernandez, P	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000
Bobby Parnell, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
a- Gary Sheffield, PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.171
J.J. Putz, P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Jeremy Reed, LF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.273
Totals	37	4	11	4	5	8
a-flied out for Parnell in the 8th
Batting
2B - David Wright (7, Kawakami), Ramon Castro 2 (2, Kawakami, Kawakami)
SH - Livan Hernandez (5)
RBI - Carlos Delgado 2 (18), David Wright (13), Ramon Castro (6)
2-OUT RBI - Ramon Castro (3)
SB - Carlos Beltran (3, 2nd base off Kawakami/Ross)
CS - David Wright (4, 2nd base by O'Flaherty/Ross)
Team LOB - 12
Fielding
DP - Castillo-Reyes, Reyes-Castillo-Delgado, Castillo-Reyes-Delgado
E - Luis Castillo (3, Misplayed grounder), Carlos Delgado (2, Dropped fly)

New York Mets
Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Livan Hernandez (W,2-1)	6.1	7	1	1	2	2	0	5.53
Bobby Parnell (H,6)	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	1.38
J.J. Putz (H,7)	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.38
Francisco Rodriguez (S,7)	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	1.54
Pitches-Strikes - Livan Hernandez 75-47, Bobby Parnell 12-7, J.J. Putz 19-12, Francisco Rodriguez 28-17
Ground Balls-Fly Balls - Livan Hernandez 7-7, Bobby Parnell 1-0, J.J. Putz 3-1
Batters Faced - Livan Hernandez 25, Bobby Parnell 3, J.J. Putz 4, Francisco Rodriguez 7

Brian Schneider: Just the Facts

In what I believe is a poor use of "statistical selection," Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News published a piece that pimped the stat work of another guy named Rubin (no relation, of course).

In the piece the writer asserts that the Mets bullpen problems were actually a catching problem, specifically a Brian Schneider problem.

The article publishes the following stats:

SANCHEZ caught by CASTRO 65 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=292
SCHNEIDER 108 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=454

HEILMAN caught by CASTRO 50 ABs , allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=340
SCHNEIDER 195 ABs, allows 9 HRs and OPP SLUG%=456

FELICIANO caught by CASTRO 36 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=306
SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=455

WAGNER caught by CASTRO 49 ABs, allows 0 HRs and OPP SLUG%=204
SCHNEIDER 99 ABs, allows 3 HRs and OPP SLUG%=313

SANTANA caught by CASTRO 333 ABs, allows 6 HRs and OPP SLUG%=297
SCHNEIDER 524 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=401

PEDRO M caught by CASTRO 138 ABs, allows 2 HRs and OPP SLUG%=377
SCHNEIDER 185 ABs, allows 15 HRs and OPP SLUG%=600!!!!!

Same phenomena holds with John Maine, Claudio Vargas and Nelson Figueroa. Fascinating, isn’t it?On the surface, these appear to be troubling numbers. After all, Schneider is the Mets starting catcher.

But as with most things, looking at all of the numbers provides a different result.

For example, we see no mention of Oliver Perez or several other Mets pitchers. How did they do with the two catchers?

How did Ollie fare with Schneider and Castro?

SCHNEIDER 472 ABs, allowed 16 HRs, .214 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.358
CASTRO 181 ABs, allowed 7 HRs, .262 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.450

Hmmmm, what about Schoeneweis?

SCHNEIDER 124 ABs, allowed 2 HRs, .226 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.323
CASTRO 47 ABs, allowed 4 HRs, .340 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.680

Even Joe Smith did better with Schneider:

SCHNEIDER 134 ABs, allowed 3 HRs, .194 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.321
CASTRO 44 ABs, allowed 1 HR, .250 BAA, OPP SLUG%=.386

Now where were those stats in Adam Rubin's piece?

What about CERA? (Catcher's ERA)

CERA is the total ERA of all pitchers while the catcher was behind the plate.

Schneider at 4.13
Castro at 3.73

OK, edge to Castro, but both of the Mets catchers were in the top 1/3 of all big league catchers.

Caught Stealing was as follows:

Schneider at .333
Castro at .217

Edge to Schneider.

Schneider also has the edge in range factor and fielding percentage.

So while I really like Ramon Castro's game--he is the best backup catcher in the business--we shouldn't throw out Brian Schneider by picking random stats without looking at the whole situation.

A proper regression analysis using all available data would have been the right way to go. My guess is that study would have shown a marginal increase in performance with Ramon Castro at the dish. Unfortunately his body is not built for more than about 60 games a year.

The Mets, The Mets, The Mets

One bit of good news to start off your day. Brian Schneider's thumb has gone from this to this:

I think having him back on the field will help a ton.

Yesterday was brutal. Ollie Perez absolutely melted down in what could have been his easiest game of the year.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that there isn't all that much to say this morning. It was a "bad beat", and you just have to chalk it up to one of those things. How often does a game get delayed 40 minutes for a freakin water main break?

It was an omen.

Apparently Ramon Castro tweaked his leg again yesterday....unbelievable. Hope for the best, but word is he walked really slowly off the field after injuring himself last night in a rehab game.

The Broadway opening of Angel Pagan and the Mets defense yesterday in their new hit "Fielding Follies" was a real crowd pleaser.

Oh good! Billy Wagner is starting to rip his teammates in public....that always goes over well.

Anyway, let's make something happen in Arizona....we did win three in a row before yesterday's beating, so all is not lost on this writer...win another series, play another game, fight the good fight always.

--Dave