27 Hard Outs

Now that the after effects from yesterday's crushing defeat have somewhat subsided, I'd like to focus on something that Ron Darling mentioned toward the end of the game.

27 hard outs.

Who gives them, and who doesn't? Who are the gamers on the team?

Let's start with Jeff Francoeur, who is the man behind Darling's comments.

In the 9th inning yesterday Francoeur made a wonderful diving catch that Ron Darling noted by saying, "there's a man that gives you 27 hard outs."

Jeff Francoeur is a gamer--he'll be back with the Mets and has the chance to get his career solidly back on track.

Corey Sullivan is another one--I like him for the bench next year. The guy is pure hustle in the outfield, runs the bases as hard as anyone on the team, and he plays high energy baseball.

Omir Santos plays hard--very hard. The guy has been beat up and battered and he digs in and does his thing. While not terribly gifted as a hitter, he has had some key RBIs this year, and he works his tail off. He is also hitting over .300 for the month of August.

Angel Pagan--he has had one or two tiny lapses this year, but the guy plays hard, runs hard, and might just be our centerfielder next year if Beltran moves to LF. I'd actually like to see Pagan in left a bit this year when Sheff isn't in there--put him in left and let Sullivan play CF.

Now I'm not going to come out and say the following guys don't have long stretches where they hustle a ton, but over the course of a season they have had moments where I questioned their desire: Brian Schneider, Gary Sheffield, and Luis Castillo.

Of the three, only Castillo will be back IMO. Luis hustles and plays hard--when he's doing well. He also has lapses in the field and pouts. That said, he's having a terrific overall season. He's a "26 out" kind of guy.

Brian Schneider--I wonder what is going on with him. His swing looks slow at the plate, his lateral movement behind the dish is off, and he has a different look about him this year than in seasons past. It could be injury, it could be seeing Church leave, it could be displeasure with any number of things--he needs to go.

The Mets made a colossal mistake in not letting Gary Sheffield go when they had a chance to get something in return. He played very hard for the team early, has had a few injuries, and he threatened to leave the team when he didn't get his way. It's typical Sheffield--play hard when he wants to play hard. I have no use for him at this point, and neither do the Mets.

27 hard outs...doesn't seem like much to ask.

Mets 10 Hit Inning: How They Did It

The Mets record breaking inning yesterday was a thing of beauty.

Players up and down the lineup contributed--well, with the exception of baseball's worst hitting first baseman, Daniel Murphy.

Here is how they did it:

Mets 4th
Derek Lowe pitching:
Angel Pagan:	Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Pagan reached on an infield single.
Luis Castillo:	Ball, Pickoff attempt, Strike looking, Ball, Castillo singled to right, Pagan to third.
Gary Sheffield:	Sheffield doubled to deep right, Pagan and Castillo scored.
Daniel Murphy:	Ball, Strike swinging, Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Foul, Foul, Murphy grounded out to second, Sheffield to third.
Jeff Francoeur:	Ball, Ball, Francoeur doubled to center, Sheffield scored.
Fernando Tatis:	Strike looking, Tatis singled to left center, Francoeur scored.
Omir Santos:	Strike looking, Pickoff attempt, Santos singled to center, Tatis to third.
Anderson Hernandez:	Foul, Ball, Strike looking, Foul, Hernandez singled to right, Tatis scored, Santos to second.
Oliver Perez:	Bunt foul, Ball, Bunt foul, Perez singled to right, Santos to third, Hernandez to second.
Angel Pagan:	Foul, Ball, Pagan reached on fielder's choice to second, Santos scored, Hernandez to third, Perez out at second.
Luis Castillo:	Pickoff attempt to first, Ball, Pagan stole second, Strike looking, Ball, Castillo singled to right, Hernandez and Pagan scored.
Kris Medlen relieved Derek Lowe.
Gary Sheffield:	Ball, Pickoff attempt, Sheffield doubled to left, Castillo to third.
Daniel Murphy:	Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Ball, Murphy struck out swinging.
End of Inning (8 Runs, 10 Hits, 0 Errors)

Jerry Manuel Blows it Again

In yet another decision that just boggles the mind, Mets manager Jerry Manuel played one of his hunches yesterday, and it missed badly.

The situation:

Mets down 2-0, 8th inning, bases loaded, 1 out, lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt on the mound, Daniel Murphy due up.

Mets fans on the edge of their seats.

In 2009 Daniel Murphy is hitting .357 with an OPS of 1.018 against lefty's.

For his career, Murphy has a .371 BA with a 1.080 against lefty's.

But wait, who is that striding to the plate? Oh it's Angel Pagan.

The Angel Pagan who is here only because Carlos Delgado was placed on the DL.

The Angel Pagan who has a lifetime BA of .225 against lefty's.

The Angel Pagan who was out with injury for the better part of the last 2 years and has only 14 minor league at-bats in 2009.

Yes, this is who Jerry pinch hits for Daniel Murphy.

This guy, who is so full of rust he should only be a pinch runner or substitute fielder now is the man Jerry turns to in the biggest situation of the game.

Maybe it's the pitching matchup? Let's look at Jeremy Affeldt's stats:

Affeldt Career:
vs L .255/.341/.419 (.760)
vs R .273/.346/.409 (.754)

Affeldt 2009:
vs L .391/.500/.652 (1.152)
vs R .184/.220/.184 (.404)

OK, so we have a hitter who kills lefty's in Murphy, against a pitcher who is far worse against lefty's than righty's in Affeldt.

Again, every number in the book screams to let Murphy hit.

Shouldn't a manager know these little facts? Is there not a number's guy in the dugout whispering these things to Jerry as the situations arise?

But Jerry goes with his gut, Jerry has a hunch, Jerry watches as Pagan, with his lifetime .225 BA against lefty's, grounds into an inning-ending double play against the pitcher who is better, far better, against righty's.

Jerry supporters will scream that Murphy was no guarantee there...these are the same people that had difficulty with math in school.

Fact: math says you let Murphy hit there. Math, the great equalizer, the objective God of baseball, the one thing every manager must be good at. Math.

Mets fan shake their head and wonder how many more games he's going to blow before serious consideration is given for a change.

Jerry, it's time to go buy a calculator.

Mets Outfield At-Bats: There's Plenty

First off, let me state up front that I absolutely love what Jerry Manuel is doing early in Spring Training.

He is motivating guys, not letting anyone get too comfortable, and creating some healthy tension in spots where there should be competition.

As it stands now there are four players competing for starting time in the outfield--this is a good thing.

Let's look at 2008, and see how many at-bats the Mets outfielders had.

• Carlos Beltran: 606
• Ryan Church: 319
• Fernando Tatis: 273 (handful came at 1B and 3B)
• Endy Chavez: 270
• Daniel Murphy: 131
• Nervous Nick Evans: 109 (a few came at 1B)
• Angel Pagan: 91
• Moises Alou: 49
• Trot Nixon: 35
• Chris Aguila: 12
• Brady Clark: 8

There were a handful of other OF at-bats...Easley played a few games out there, etc.

So all told there were approximately 1,900 outfield at-bats in 2008, and Endy Chavez accounted for 270 of those, or just over 14%.

If we total up all the at-bats from guys no longer with the team, the number climbs to about 375, or about 20% of all 2008 outfield at-bats.

The point is that the 2008 Mets had something of a wild rotation in the corners in 2008, and on any given day there were 4-5 guys that could be out there.

It was a sub-optimal situation.

Cut to 2009 and we have three guys clearly in the lead to man their positions for the bulk of the time: Murphy, Beltran and Church.

You then have Tatis as option #1 to start in LF or RF depending on the pitcher, who needs a rest, who is slumping or hitting, etc.

A great situation would be for Beltran to have a 550-600 at-bat season, Murphy and Church to come in somewhere around 450-500 range, and Tatis around 250 OF at-bats (he will get a few elsewhere). This still leaves about 100 at-bats for the "5th outfielder", thus avoiding a situation like last year in which the weak hitting Endy Chavez got 14% of all outfield at-bats with his .308 OBP and .330 Slg %

Of course at this point it's all speculation, but I will state again, as I have before, that our younger, more athletic outfield of 2009 looks much more potent than Angel Pagan, Grandpa Alou and a bunch of guys who were either past their primes or never had a prime.

It's a good outfield....potentially a great one.

Things are Shaping Up (Slowly)

OK, it's been a slow few days, we have a new President, and it's time to update the site on what's happening (and not happening) with the Mets.

First the "what's not happening". No news on Ollie or Sheets, just a lot of speculation.

Now the "happening".

First, two of our guys that flashed last year, Ryan Church and Angel Pagan, both avoided arbitration and inked deals with the Mets for 2009.

Ryan Church signed for $2.8 million, a nice bump from the $2 million he earned in 2008. As my faithful readers know, I have predicted a huge season for Church in 2009.

Last Half 2007/First Half 2008:

209 AB, 25 R, 55 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 17 BB, 52 K, .293 BA, .354 OBP, .532 Slg, .886 OPS

205 AB, 40 R, 63 H, 10 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 19 BB, 50 K, .307 BA, .370 OBP, .512 Slg, .882 OPS

Now let's combine those numbers.

414 AB, 65 R, 118 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, 36 BB, 102 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS

Now let's look at those numbers over 525 at bats.

2009 Projection:

525 AB, 83 R, 150 H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 46 BB, 130 K, .300 BA, .362 OBP, .522 Slg, .884 OPS

Angel Pagan--the guy that had us all excited after a great start, only to watch him fall to injury--will earn $575,000 if he makes the club. At this point Pagan is something for a question mark. He had a torn labrum and has undergone some extensive rehab, but we won't know how well he can swing the bat until we see him next month in Florida.

So that leaves John Maine and Pedro Feliciano as the Mets only two remaining arbitration players.

Also, and take it for what it's worth--someone "in the know" e-mailed me 2 hours ago to say the Mets will sign a pitcher this week "guaranteed".

Stay Tuned.