Good Morning Mets Fans!

Four in a row is pretty damn good baseball, especially when those four wins came against the teams from last year's World Series.

The Mets are hot, and they have both their pitching and hitting to thank.  Let's start with the pitching.

Hisanori Takahashi is a big league starter...there is no question that he does what every manager wants his pitcher to do--throw strikes and keep hitters off balance.

In his second big league start Taktor K threw six innings of shutout ball and led the Mets to a shutout victory over the Phillies for the second straight game.

"He's a great pitcher with great instincts," Mets manager Jerry Manuel said. "He had great command of his pitches."

Manuel went on to add that Takahashi is now firmly entrenched in the rotation.

"It'd be tough to get him out.... I think his command is among the top pitchers in the league," said Manuel, who compared him to the White Sox's Mark Buehrle. "That means at any time in the count he can throw any pitch, and that's a huge advantage for a pitcher."

"I can do it," Takahashi said through a translator. "As a reliever or starter, I don't change much. I'm happy to be in the starting rotation here."

Takahashi is now 4-1 on the season with a sparkling 2.13 ERA and an astounding 44 Ks in only 38 innings.  Last night he gave up five hits without walking a batter and struck out six.

"To have a performance such as that especially against two very good teams, elite teams, it lengthens the opportunity for him," Manuel said about Takahashi's continuing presence in the rotation.

Takahashi may have been facing a struggling Philly club, but he certainly added to their misery with his array of pitches and pinpoint control.  He and Barajs were in perfect synch, and it was really fun to watch them work the hitters all night like a chess match.  I actually thought his fastball, which sat at 89-90 mph, was his best pitch of the night.  He relied on it early, and when the big spots came up later in the game he had the hitters set-up perfectly for his changeup and slider.  He struck out Ryan Howard in a huge spot with men on base.

"I know he's one of the biggest hitters in the game, and [Rod] Barajas had a good plan to get him out," Takashi said of Howard. "I stuck to the plan."

The offense was working as well.  Jose Reyes is now officially in super hot mode, with 5 multi-hit games in his last 6.  He hit his first homerun of the season, and it really lifted the entire club.

The New and Improved Rod Barajas "Now with even more A-Ha's!" had a two-run double and a sac fly in a three RBI effort and Jose Reyes had his fourth straight multihit game, with his first homer of the season for New York. Luis Castillo chipped in with two walks and two stolen bases, and Angel Pagan had two hits.

The "Strawberry Effect"???

Maybe the Strawberry talk had its desired effect after all?  It's been reported that some players didn't care for his comments, and it may be pure coincidence that the team has gelled, but it is interesting timing. Whatever the spark is, the Mets are playing very, very good baseball.  They are a hustling team, a very good defensive team, and they have removed some of the trouble spots from playing time.

Think about it--first base is now stabilized, centerfield is now stabilized, and with the addition of Takahashi to the rotation, it certainly appears more stable that it had been previously.  They have found something in Dickey as a wonderful rubber armed change of pace guy as well.

There are still issues--that is a given--but when you have professionals doing their jobs in key roles, the stars will help lift you the rest of the way.

Enjoy your coffee!

Scoreboard
Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Philadelphia (26-19)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	1
N.Y. Mets (24-23) «	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	x	5	7	0

Players of the Game

New York J. Reyes AB 4 R 1 H 2 HR 1 RBI 2

New York H. Takahashi IP 6.0 H 5 ER 0 BB 0 K 6

Related articles:

• Link: Takahashi Embracing New Challenge as Starter (nj.com)
• Mets deal Phillies second consecutive shutout (cbssports.com)
• Mets-Phillies:Tak Terrific Leads New York Past Philadelphia (bleacherreport.com)
• Takahashi, Mets Shut out Phillies Again (abcnews.go.com)

Was Tom Verducci Right on Mike Pelfrey?

On April 7, 2009, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated put Mike Pelfrey in his cross-hairs.

He singled out Pelfrey for a potential drop-off in performance based on something that has become known as, "The Verducci Effect."

Verducci wrote:

Mike Pelfrey was ready for me in the Mets spring training clubhouse, as if he knew I was coming.

"Look at me," the Mets right-hander said one day last month. "I'm a pretty big guy." Yes, sir. Pelfrey is 6-foot-7. Thankfully, he is a rather pleasant, mild-mannered guy.

I didn't feel threatened, but my theory about young pitchers getting overworked was precisely in Pelfrey's crosshairs. Pelfrey was familiar with my rule of thumb that pitchers 25 and under are at risk of injury or significant regression in the year after their clubs boost their workload by 30 or more innings.

The Mets pushed Pelfrey, then 24, 48 innings beyond his previous professional high in innings pitched last year. The club preferred not to do it. In fact, the Mets had mapped out a plan to get Pelfrey about 180 innings last year, but injuries on their staff and a tight pennant race forced the Mets to keep running him out there, rolling the odometer on his innings up to 200 2/3.

Verducci "red-flagged" 10 pitchers for 2009, and looking at the numbers, his theory can certainly be called accurate, or at least another data point for mapping out a program for young pitcher development.

Here are the pitchers he flagged and their ERA increase from 2008 to 2009:

1. Jon Lester Red Sox: +0.39
2. Cole Hamels Phillies: +1.43
3. Chad Billingsley Dodgers: +0.69
4. Tim Lincecum Giants: -0.29
5. Clayton Kershaw Dodgers: -1.30
6. Dana Eveland A's: +3.66
7. Mike Pelfrey Mets: +1.08
8. John Danks White Sox: +0.50
9. Jair Jurrjens Braves: -0.77
10. Jonathan Niese Mets: Injured

So looking at that list, he was right on 6 of the 9 pitchers (Niese's unfortunate non-pitching injury takes him out of this equation).

Lincecum, Jurrjens and Kershaw are three that have improved since last year, but what of Pelfrey, or Cole Hamels for that matter?

In 2008 Pelfrey had an ERA+ of 113, compared to an ERA+ of 88 in 2009.

He is walking 3.4 per 9 innings vice 2.9 in 2008.

His K/9 is up slightly, however his K/BB is worse.

More troubling are his ERA numbers by month:

2008 season:

4.43, 5.35, 3.52, 2.70, 2.93, 4.06

Compared to 2009:

6.32, 2.92, 6.39, 4.84, 5.10.

It's as if we've been playing, "Where in the world is Mike Pelfrey?" all year long.

Now I won't go as far as saying his jump in innings from 2007 to 2008 is the cause of all of this, but it certainly does make you stop and think.

I only hope that over Pelfrey's final 6 or so starts in 2009 that he finds something to build on going forward.

One thing is for certain, he won't match his 200+ innings total from last year, and that might just be the right approach for the rest of the year--caution. He threw 118 pitches in his last outing, and that, in my opinion, is unnecessary right now.

Speculation Still Looming: Chris Carter's Name Dropped

One of the players the Boston fanbase and some media are saying is part of the Billy Wagner deal is minor leaguer Chris Carter.

They are citing the dubious, "someone with inside knowledge", but he does seem a likely player "to be named", especially given the Mets first base prospects for 2010, his age (27 in September), and the Red Sox depth at first base throughout their system.

Carter has hit well at every level and made the Red Sox out of Spring Training.

Scouting Report

Assets	Has very good power potential and a keen eye for bases on balls. Is also adept at hitting the gaps for doubles.
Flaws	Needs to improve his footwork and hands at first base in order to become a regular at the major-league level.
Career Potential	A backup first baseman or corner outfielder.

Wags Nets Two, But Who?

Word on the street is that the Mets will get two AA prospects from the Red Sox now that Billy Wagner has agreed to the trade. That alone is enough to keep hope alive as the Sox have a load of talent right now in AA, but again, that both guys will come from AA is just rumor.

Previously I had written that the one player the Mets should pursue from the Red Sox was Anthony Rizzo, but from the sounds of it, Rizzo will not be one of the two as he is in High A ball.

Another name being bandied about is pitcher Felix Doubront, who has very, very good stuff but has not excelled in his development in the way that says, "can't miss." He is in AA and would immediately upgrade our farm system.

So we'll be left to wonder--at least for a little while, on who from this list the Mets get in return.

Pitchers
#	Name	Pos	Bat	Thw	Ht	Wt	DOB	Status	MLB 40-man
	Travis Beazley	P	R	R	6' 0"	175	06-17-1983	7-day DL	No
13	Bryson Cox	P	R	R	6' 4"	205	08-10-1984	Active	No
28	Andrew Dobies	P	L	L	6' 1"	180	04-20-1983	Active	No
25	Felix Doubront	P	L	L	6' 2"	165	10-23-1987	Active	Yes
18	Kason Gabbard	P	L	L	6' 3"	200	04-08-1982	7-day DL	No
19	Tommy Hottovy	P	L	L	6' 1"	195	07-09-1981	Active	No
35	Kris Johnson	P	L	L	6' 4"	170	10-14-1984	Active	No
34	Ryne Lawson	P	L	R	6' 2"	180	06-21-1985	Active	No
26	Richard Lentz	P	R	R	6' 2"	210	08-06-1984	Active	No
18	Derrick Loop	P	R	L	6' 3"	220	12-11-1983	Active	No
45	Blake Maxwell	P	R	R	6' 5"	255	08-01-1984	Active	No
33	Ryne Miller	P	R	R	6' 4"	230	09-25-1985	Active	No
39	Jarod Plummer	P	R	R	6' 5"	200	01-27-1984	7-day DL	No
36	Chris Province	P	R	R	6' 3"	220	01-20-1985	Active	No
15	Chad Rhoades	P	R	R	5' 10"	175	03-10-1983	Active	No

Catchers
#	Name	Pos	Bat	Thw	Ht	Wt	DOB	Status	MLB 40-man
30	Juan Apodaca	C	R	R	5' 11"	180	07-15-1986	Active	No
23	Luis Exposito	C	R	R	6' 3"	210	01-20-1987	Active	No

Infielders
#	Name	Pos	Bat	Thw	Ht	Wt	DOB	Status	MLB 40-man
21	Lars Anderson	1B	L	L	6' 4"	215	09-25-1987	Active	No
40	Jorge Jimenez	3B	L	R	6' 1"	210	09-12-1984	Active	No
2	Ryan Khoury	2B	R	R	5' 10"	180	03-19-1984	Active	No
5	Yamaico Navarro	SS	R	R	5' 11"	170	10-31-1987	Active	No
37	Jon Still	DH	R	R	6' 2"	210	11-16-1984	Active	No
17	Iggy Suarez	2B	R	R	5' 11"	165	05-03-1981	Active	No

Outfielders
#	Name	Pos	Bat	Thw	Ht	Wt	DOB	Status	MLB 40-man
31	Reid Engel	RF	L	R	6' 3"	190	05-07-1987	7-day DL	No
32	Ryan Kalish	LF	L	L	6' 1"	205	03-28-1988	Active	No
43	Daniel Nava	RF	S	L	5' 10"	200	02-22-1983	Active	No
44	Jason Place	LF	R	R	6' 3"	205	05-08-1988	Active	No
12	Matt Sheely	RF	R	R	5' 9"	160	08-30-1986	Active	No

The Good Ship Sheff

I'm taking a different view than most on Gary Sheffield. Bottom line is the Mets should have let Gary go when he was claimed.

Look, the team is going nowhere, Sheff will not be part of any 2010 solution, and it would have been better for the game to let him go to a team that is in a pennant race--in this case, the Giants.

They should have done it because it was the right thing to do.

I was discussing this last night with Joe McDonald of NY Sports Day. Joe thought I was a bit naive and said, "it's not how it works anymore."

It goes back to July and the question everyone had, "Will the Mets be buyers or sellers?"

They chose to be neither--no moves of note.

How nice would it have been to pass off Livan and Sheff in July for a couple of prospects to help re-populate the farm system?

So the trickle down effect comes into play--two older vets, both with some success early on, both with a little value to teams in the hunt--and the Mets front office doesn't take advantage of it.

So instead we get a few more crappy starts from Livan followed by his release, and a waiver and pull back situation followed by a contract demand and a threat to leave from Sheff--nothing to show for either man's early season success and value.

In other words: the Mets lost twice.