Rick Peterson's Impact

Last year when the Mets fired Willie Randolph, Rick Peterson was let go as well. It was a move that was applauded throughout many circles for reasons that came out afterward--Peterson was described as a major "control freak who didn't listen."

When he left it was ugly, and got uglier. He was roundly criticized by many on the staff, including ace Johan Santana and Oliver Perez.

Both of these men are undergoing surgery.

Let's take a quick look at the Mets key pitching stats in 2003, the year before Peterson's arrival:

2003: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 93 ERA+

Pretty poor--the Mets had the second most losses in the NL that year, with 95. The staff featured some good pitchers--Al Leiter, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel, who won 16 games, and reliever John Franco, who had a 2.92 ERA, and Armando Benitez, with a 3.10 ERA.

When Peterson arrived in 2004, the pitching staff remained essentially the same. 4 of the 5 starters stayed in place, and the 5th starter situation remained fluid all year, just as it did in 2003. Benitez was replaced with Braden Looper as the closer, who put up similar numbers.

The overall numbers of the staff improved, which remained a consistent theme throughout Peterson's tenure.

2004: 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 104 ERA+
2005: 3.77 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 109 ERA+
2006: 4.16 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 105 ERA+
2007: 4.27 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 100 ERA+
2008: 4.07 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 103 ERA+

As we all know, Peterson was fired in June of 2008, but he gets partial credit for last year's performance.

And now we have 2009--Dan Warthen in full swing, injuries up and down the staff. Horrible numbers that look very similar to 2003:

2009: 4.44 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 96 ERA+

So what was the true impact of Rick Peterson? Let's combine the numbers the year prior to his arrival and after he left, and look at them against the averages from Peterson's tenure:

With R. Peterson: 4.07 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 104 ERA+
Without Peterson: 4.47 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 94 ERA+

It does make you wonder how much impact Peterson truly had, and what 2009 would have looked like had he stayed in place.

Ollie and the Mental Game

Oliver Perez is struggling--that is a given.

But what is the cause?

Why did his fastball, once consistently in the 93-95 range, top out at 88 mph yesterday?

Why does his curveball, once a kneebuckling breaker that gave lefty's fits, sit out over the plate as if on a tee?

Do we blame the WBC? Did playing for his country affect Ollie's psyche?

Do we blame the lack of a true spring training? Was Ollie in terrible physical shape when he arrived, as Dan Warthen alleged?

Or is it possible that Ollie is just a head case until he gets it going and gains confidence?

That's my theory anyway.

Let's look at last year.

By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	4.03	2	2	0	0	6	6	0	29.0	28	18	13	1	21	26	.257
May	5.58	2	1	0	0	5	5	0	30.2	22	19	19	8	20	24	.206
June	5.28	2	2	0	0	6	6	0	30.2	31	19	18	7	11	26	.263
July	1.38	1	1	0	0	5	5	0	32.2	23	6	5	2	15	36	.197
August	3.52	2	1	0	0	6	6	0	38.1	30	16	15	3	17	34	.219
September	5.79	1	0	0	0	6	6	0	32.2	33	22	21	3	21	34	.260

Early in the season Ollie had a terrible time. He was walking a ton of batters, giving up homeruns in bunches, and he didn't have very good command of his breaking pitches.

Now we know that Rick Peterson got the blame, because right after he was let go, Ollie really turned it on and had a very nice 10 game stretch.

But was Peterson truly to blame, or did something just click with Ollie, giving him confidence?

If it truly is a mental issue and not a physical one, what can the Mets do to get him back on track?

Is sending him down for a few minor league starts the answer?

I would say yes. It's early enough in the season to give him two weeks in AA or AAA to get his pitches worked out and find his spots.

Brian Stokes seems perfectly capable of starting a few games, and Figgy is now back in the mix. He's usually good for 5 or 6 innings of decent baseball, and right now Ollie isn't capable of even that.

It's time Omar--have that heart to hear with Ollie, send him down for a few weeks, and let's get him back on track.

Remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint.

Mets Mates on Ollie: Yes, Yes, Yes

One thing is certain: Oliver Perez has the full backing and support of his 2008 teammates and coaches.

"Bring him back!" is the universal rallying cry.

Billy Wagner: "He's possibly one of those guys who can win the Cy Young award every year," Billy Wagner told The Post yesterday. "It's just, which Ollie is going to show up?

"Oliver has got No. 1 stuff, but he's probably that No. 3 or 4 type pitcher because he can't stay focused for pitching against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's that No. 1 guy for when you're playing against the Phillies and Braves or in the playoffs and you've got to get that win."

Johan Santana: "Oliver is a guy that has learned a lot from last year and we had a good time with him,” Santana said.

“Hopefully Omar finds a way to keep him. He’s learned a lot of things from last year. He learned that every game is important. I told him from the beginning it doesn’t matter what you do tomorrow. Learn from today and you’ll be fine tomorrow.

“Sometimes he lets his emotions take over. I’m pretty sure he’ll improve this year. Hopefully Omar finds a way to keep him in NewYork. He’s not just a great teammate. He’s going to be a good pitcher, too.”

Rick Peterson: "You want a guy who can dominate in your division, and he's only going to get better," Peterson said. "If I'm a Mets fan or in the front office, I'm very happy if Oliver Perez is returning."

Bottom line is the Mets know they have a chance to win now--and that chance is better with Ollie in tow.

Wilie Randolph Fired

The wait is over, Willie Randolph has been fired. Also fired were pitching coach Rick Peterson and first base coach Tom Nieto.

As firings go, this one was handled with little class, suspect timing, and poor communication. The obvious question being, why make those guys travel across the country to win a game and get fired right after?

Moreover the Mets have won 3 of 4, and played some of their best baseball of the year.

Ken Oberkfell, Dan Warthen and Luis Aguayo will join the team’s big-league staff.

Oberkfell had been the manager of the team’s Triple-A New Orleans affiliate, while Warthen had been the pitching coach, and Aguayo the team’s field coordinator.

According to an AP report, Minaya and Manuel will address the media before Tuesday’s game in Anaheim at 5 pm EDT.

Name	Years managed	Record
Willie Randolph	2004-08	302-253
Art Howe	2003-04	137-186
Bobby Valentine	1996-2002	536-467
Dallas Green	1993-96	229-283
Jeff Torborg	1992-93	85-115
Mike Cubbage	1991	3-4
Bud Harrelson	1990-91	145-129
Davey Johnson	1984-90	595-417
Frank Howard	1983	52-64
George Bamberger	1982-83	81-127
Joe Torre	1977-81	286-420
Joe Frazier	1976-77	101-106
Roy McMillan	1975	26-27
Yogi Berra	1972-75	292-296
Gil Hodges	1968-71	339-309
Salty Parker	1967	4-7
Wes Westrum	1965-67	142-237
Casey Stengel	1962-1965	175-404