The Best Baseball Blog You Don't Know About...Yet

Morgan Ensberg is blogging....and it is amazing.

He goes into detail about situations and what big leaguers are thinking and doing.

I'm not kidding that it might just be the most interesting baseball blog I have ever read, and he just started it.

Morgan Ensberg's Baseball IQ

Here are two of his fascinating posts:

How to Hit a Batter:  Zito vs Fielder

Did Barry Zito send a message to Prince Fielder or to his Giants teammates?

What’s My Point?
Barry Zito did hit Prince Fielder because of the walk–off home run.  But I believe he is sending a message to the league that the Giants care about how the game is played. I also think that Zito is teaching his young pitching staff how to hit a batter.

Why does it matter?

1. The Giants have a team that can win the NL West and Zito knows it.  The pitching staff is young, but Zito knows that opposing players take notice if they know that a pitching staff is willing to protect their teammates or the game.
2. There is no better way for a pitcher to get position players on your side then to hit an opposing player.  Even though this was not retaliation because of a Giants batter being hit, it still proves that any perceived disrespectful action will be handled with a message pitch.  This is HUGE.

Reasons to Throw at a Batter:

1. A player looks, yells, or points at an opposing player clearly showing that the game is secondary to making his point.
2. A player slides hard into a base late or with their spikes high where the result is not to break up a play, but to hurt the opposing player.
3. Any action that a player makes that causes fans to look at them instead of the play.  This could include hitting a home run and standing there too long or throwing your bat high in the air while you are watching the ball go over the fence.
4. If the opposing pitcher throws around a player’s head more than once.  (Once can be assumed that the ball just got away)
5. If opposing team hits your 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th hitter, or best player with a fastball in the middle of the back with the 1^st pitch.

Timing
Most important!!!!!  2 outs! Your team is winning by 4 runs or more.  Why?  After you hit this guy, the opposing team is going to be mad and you just gave them a motivator to fight back.  Also, winning the game is the top priority.  We will not give the opposing team a legitimate statistical chance of winning because of it.  The reason it is 4 runs is because that is the most runs possible with one swing of the bat.

MATH:
In 2009 the MLB On Base Percentage Avg was .333.
In 2009 the chance of hitting a Home run was 0.03

So the probability of 3 men getting on base in a row are 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/27 or 0.037

We multiply 0.037 (chance of loading the bases) x 0.03 (chance a person hits a hr) = 0.001 or 0.1% (one tenth of a percent)

Now you have to understand that I am using overall 2009 Stats and this is not taking into consideration anything but the “absolute” numbers.

Obviously a power hitter has a better chance of hitting a home run vs. a power hitter who is playing hurt. You get my drift.

This math problem is to give you a general understanding of probability.

All you SABR guys can cool off now.

Try and hit him in the RIBS not the back, butt, legs…with a 4 seemed fastball. This is the only real way to send a message. I have been hit countless times in the back by a 2-seamed fastball and never once am I sure I was hit on purpose.  Of course, I must have been, but since the ball was sinking into me I assumed he just missed.

Once you hit him, you don’t look at him, you don’t talk to him, you don’t walk towards the batter, you don’t look at the umpire and throw your hands up as if it got away, you don’t argue with the umpire.  If you get thrown out you walk off the field…message sent.   If you do any of the actions mentioned you have switched the focus from sending a message to saying you “didn’t mean it” which is opposite of your point.  You want the opposing team to know you did it on purpose.

MOST IMPORTANT!
You do not hit a batter because he “owns” you.  You don’t hit a batter because you don’t like him.

I Believe Milton Bradley

What’s My Point?
I believe the fans at Wrigley gave Milton a hard time and maybe it was deserved, but at least 3 of those fans crossed the line.

Why Does it Matter?
I don’t hear one person coming to his defense and that tells me something isn’t right.  I believe the Cubs tried as hard as they could to make him feel welcome.  But I haven’t heard one quote saying it was possible that a fan crossed the line.

My Take
It has been well documented that Milton received treatment for anger management.  But fans don’t care.  They think,  “Hey, he is a millionaire and a jerk.  Watch this, I am going to yell at him until he snaps.  It’ll be funny!”  A fan at Wrigley tried to be funny with me also and he crossed the line.

I was in right field shagging balls during BP in 2007.  I loved talking to the fans in the bleachers.   In fact, I felt so comfortable with them that a guy asked to see my glove so I tossed it to him.  He looked at it and threw it back down, no problem.  Back to the story…

I was talking to a group of 7 and they started ragging me, but I got them to laugh and the conversation quickly turned into a Q & A session.  After 15 min I told them I had to hit.  When I turned my back I heard a guy spit and felt phlegm hit my left temple.

As I jogged into the dugout my eyes were watering up.  I took 3 or 4 deep breaths and regained my composure.  It took me over an hour to stop feeling humiliated.  Someone just spit on me because he thought it would be funny and instead it burned a memory into my heart that I will never forget.

Spitting, literally, dribbles contempt, and it is the noxious, viscous disdain of the act that makes it such a powerful and intimate insult. The appeal of spitting is the effortless momentary disrespect it conveys, while the person on the receiving end must experience the full humiliation of the splash, the dribble and the ungainly wipe.  Esther Addley The Guardian, Thursday 6 November 2003

So when Milton says that he was called a “derogatory comment”.  I believe him.  When he says his family was threatened, I believe him.  Every fan isn’t a racist, just like every fan doesn’t spit on players.  But based on my experience at Wrigley, I believe him.

Final Thought
Milton and I were teammates for 2 months with the Padres.  He has a HUGE heart and was a great teammate.  He just wants to have someone in his corner.  I’ll be that guy Milton

Good Morning Mets Fans!

They sure do make it exciting at times, don't they?

Yesterday the Mets won another extra-inning thriller on the strength of a Carlos Beltran homerun, some incredible bullpen pitching, just a bit of timely late game hitting, and the best fielding game they've had all season.

It started with, well, the starter. In this case Jon Niese, the Mets prized 21-year old lefty.

Niese didn't pitch well, in fact, he looked downright overmatched and very shaky at the start of the game--you could see the pressure on his face.

“I get nervous for him, no question,” Jerry Manuel said before the game. “He feels some nerves. He has to. I just hope he gets through it, and gets it behind him as quick as possible.”

It was admittedly a crapshoot with Niese. Earlier in the week we heard our first warning sign when Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen said he, "would rather not have Niese make his debut against the Brewers righthanded lineup." Ummmmm, gulp anyone? We have a pennant race here!

Without getting into every dirty detail of his effort, Niese gave up a leadoff homerun, settled down to get out of the first inning jam, had an OK curve in the 2nd and 3rd but was not beating anyone with a very average fastball, and then the Brewers exploded for 4 runs in the 4th.

“That fourth inning kind of got away from me,” Niese said. “I didn’t command my fastball as well as I wanted to, and they were sitting on my off-speed stuff. That’s what they were looking for.”

"It's the first one," Manuel said. "You almost have to kind of throw that one out for him. You have to give him the benefit of the doubt. It was obviously a tremendous experience for him. The fact that we end up winning the game is the most important thing."

Niese entered the 4th with a 5-1 lead thanks to the ultra red hot Carlos Beltran, who shook off the bruised knee he suffered in the previous game and blasted a 3-run bomb off of Brewers starter Manny Parra.

Beltran is 14 for his last 36 with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs. During that stretch he's scored 11 runs...he looks ready to put the team on his back for the stretch run.

In addition to his homerun, Beltran was part of a Mets team that had a spectacular night in the field.

• Carlos threw out a runner at home to save a run
• Endy Chavez threw out a runner at second to kill a rally
• Nick Evans caught two balls in deep leftfield that could have easily gone for extra bases if not for his jump and concentration at the wall
• David Wright made a spectacular play at third and an amazing throw to gun down Corey Hart late
  
• Robinson Cancel did a terrific job blocking the plate on Beltran's throw home
• Damion Easley had a great "quick tag" and sell job to the ump for the out at second

It all adds up to the best and most complete fielding game of the year for the Mets....each one of those plays was a potential run and game saver, none more than the Beltran-Cancel effort and Nick Evan's second catch.

But the real story of the game was the bullpen--the much maligned bullpen.

Five relievers combined for 7 innings of shutout ball. Nelson Figueroa came on in early relief of Niese and limited the damage by only allowing one inherited run, even though he came on with men on base and no outs against the toughest part of their lineup.

Duaner Sanchez pitched a scoreless frame. Brian Stokes followed him with two brilliant innings and flashed a fastball that topped out at 97 mph. Pedro Feliciano and Joe Smith "lefty-righty'd" a scoreless 9th, and Luis Ayala notched a save in the 10th.

Jerry Manuel is loving what he's seen of late from his bullpen and the 18-pitcher armada the Mets have with the addition of the callups.

"When you have a number of pitchers like we have, and we have put most of them in somewhat stressful situations, you're not afraid now to call them in those times," manager Jerry Manuel said. "And you figure if you keep them short, keep them having some success, then the next time they go out there, they feel very confident about themselves. That's the plan. Sometimes it goes well. Sometimes it doesn't."

To get the save the Mets needed a run, and Daniel Murphy gave them one with a very focused pinch hit--this kid is something very special and is a very disciplined hitter. He hits like a 30-year old.

On the next play Jose Reyes laid down a sac bunt to move Murphy over, and the Brewers gave the Mets a gift. Jason Kendall's throw moved up the line a bit, and Rickie Weeks couldn't hold the ball. Murphy moved to third on the play.

"It was a really, really tough play," Milwaukee manager Ned Yost said. "Reyes is one of the fastest players in the league, so Kendall had to rush the throw. And it's one of the toughest plays for a second baseman to make covering first. Kendall had to hurry and he just threw it on the foul side of the base."

Endy stepped in and confidently stroked a sac fly to right--a professional at bat.

"I was just trying to put the ball in play and make something happen," Chavez said.

Another great win for a Mets team that has won 16 of their last 21 games and 19 of the last 26. It kept the team two games up on the Phils, and it just keeps getting more and more exciting with each game.

Ya gotta love a pennant race!

Enjoy your coffee!