The Season Long Hump--Step One Complete

Some people break up the season in quarters of halves, I like to view it by month.

Last year the Mets had month after bad month, and the schedule was certainly not their friend.

In June and early July there were two stretches when the Mets played 20 games in a row, and August it got worse, with the Mets playing 29 games with one day off.

I chronicled the scheduling issues quite a bit last year, including this piece on 20 games in 20 days.

In 2009 the Mets got off to a sluggish start in April, only to turn on the jets in May and take what was their only division lead for the year.  In June the wheels fell off as the injuries mounted, and we were all left to think what could have been as one frustration piled on top of another all the way to the merciful end.

Still, with all of the challenges of 2009, the team was far better at home than on the road:

2009 Home/Road
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
Home	41	40	343	350	.506
Road	29	52	328	407	.358
2009 Month by Month
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
April	9	12	96	97	.429
May	19	9	138	111	.679
June	9	18	108	146	.333
July	12	14	93	108	.462
August	10	19	117	151	.345
September	8	20	103	142	.286
October	3	0	16	2	1.000

This year's schedule is quite a bit more balanced:

• April:  16 home games, 7 away games, 3 off days, 16 games in a row
  
• May:  12 home games, 17 away games, 2 off days, 17 games in a row
  
• June:  12 home games, 14 away games, 4 off days, 9 games in a row
  
• July:  11 home games, 15 away games, 5 off days, 11 games in a row
  
• August: 13 home games, 15 away games, 3 off days, 13 games in a row
  
• September: 14 home games, 13 away games, 3 off days, 10 games in a row
  
• October:  3 home games, 0 away games

Thus far in 2010 the schedule appears to be the Mets friend, and the 11-5 home record certainly attests to that fact.

Yes, they certainly have taken great advantage of the abundance of April home games, but make no mistake--those games were against some of the best clubs in the National League, even if some of those clubs aren't playing that way at the moment.

April Opponents and 2009 Winning Percentage:
3 vs Dodgers (.586--won division)
1 vs Philly (.574--won division)
3 vs Colorado (.568--wild card)
3 vs St Louis (.562--won division)
3 vs Florida (.537)
3 vs Atlanta (.531)
4 vs Chicago (.516)
3 vs Nationals (.364)

So the Mets had two opposing forces to begin the year--a plethora of home games, yet those games were against the best teams the senior circuit has to offer.

Bottom line is the Mets did what they had to do--they used the scheduling advantage in their favor.  With one more April game remaining, the team is 4 games over .500 and sits atop the NL East.

Looking ahead to May we can see that it will be a challenging month from a schedule perspective.

There are:

• 17 road games against 12 home games.
• 5 games against the Phillies
• 3 games against the Yankees
• 3 games against the tough SF Giants
• 4 games against the Marlins

No easy task, but as long as the Mets continue to play well as a true team, they will continue to do well.

One thing is for certain--the first hump was met and the team kicked it right on its ass.

Our Homerun Problems are Back

I don't want to be the Debbie Downer of the bloggers, especially since the Mets are playing some inspired baseball of late.  That said, the offense is not anywhere close to where it needs to be, and I keep thinking that the house of cards can tumble down as quickly as it was raised this past week.

In a continuing theme, I'll once again look at homeruns as one indicator of offensive ability.

In March of last year, before the season began, I wrote a piece called "Jerry Has It Wrong on Power."  I wrote it because I was alarmed at the stance Jerry took on the offense during spring training in terms of how the Mets would generate enough runs to compete in the NL East.

In 2007 the team hit 177 homeruns and finished with an 88-74 record.  In 2008 the Mets hit 172 homeruns--124 homeruns in wins against only 48 homeruns in losses.  They finished second that year, with an 89-73 record. 

The 2008 homerun totals equate to  1.39 HR in each win against only .66 HR in a loss.

In 2009 the downward trend appeared, and the Mets had an awful season, finishing 70-92.  The Mets hit 95 homeruns total last year, 57 in their 70 wins against only 38 in their 92 losses.

This equates to  .81 HR in each win against only .41 HR in a loss.

And that brings us to 2010 and my worry of a repeat of an inability to have a sustained offense during the inevitable downturn in pitching.

The Mets are currently 24th in MLB in Hrs with only 13 on the season.

In their 10 wins they have 8 HRs.  In the 9 losses they have only 5.

This equated to .80 HR in each win against .55 HR in each loss.

Let's look at the last three seasons and see if there is a trend:

2008: 1.39 per W/.66 per L
2009: .81 per W/.41 per L
2010: .80 per W/.55 per L

It's a very simple level of analysis, but I believe it's worth paying attention to as the season progresses.

Bottom line is the sluggers need to slug, and they need to do so with some level of consistency.

The Mets starting pitching and bullpen have been very good thus far, but for the team to truly get to the next level, they need to channel their inner Kingman.

Mets April Schedule Could Determine 2010 Success

There's something about the Mets schedule each year that always seems a bit disconcerting.

Last year there was June and early July when the Mets played 20 games in a row, and August, when the Mets played 29 games with one day off.

I chronicled the scheduling issues quite a bit last year, including this piece on 20 games in 20 days.

In 2009 the Mets got off to a sluggish start in April, only to turn on the jets in May and take what was their only division lead for the year.  In June the wheels fell off as the injuries mounted, and we were all left to think what could have been as one frustration piled on top of another all the way to the merciful end.

Still, with all of the challenges of 2009, the team was far better at home than on the road:

2009 Home/Road
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
Home	41	40	343	350	.506
Road	29	52	328	407	.358
2009 Month by Month
Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
April	9	12	96	97	.429
May	19	9	138	111	.679
June	9	18	108	146	.333
July	12	14	93	108	.462
August	10	19	117	151	.345
September	8	20	103	142	.286
October	3	0	16	2	1.000

This year's schedule is quite a bit more balanced:

• April:  16 home games, 7 away games, 3 off days, 16 games in a row
  
• May:  12 home games, 17 away games, 2 off days, 17 games in a row
  
• June:  12 home games, 14 away games, 4 off days, 9 games in a row
  
• July:  11 home games, 15 away games, 5 off days, 11 games in a row
  
• August: 13 home games, 15 away games, 3 off days, 13 games in a row
  
• September: 14 home games, 13 away games, 3 off days, 10 games in a row
  
• October:  3 home games, 0 away games

The real question surrounding the 2010 schedule is a simple one, "can the Mets take advantage of of the abundance of April home games?"

It's possible, but when we look at the Mets opponents in April, the home field advantage becomes obscured as the Mets play some of the best teams in the NL.  In fact, other than the Nationals, the Mets go up against the cream of the crop to start the year, including games against all four playoff teams.

April opponents:
3 vs Dodgers (.586--won division)
1 vs Philly (.574--won division)
3 vs Colorado (.568--wild card)
3 vs St Louis (.562--won division)
3 vs Florida (.537)
3 vs Atlanta (.531)
4 vs Chicago (.516)
3 vs Nationals (.364)

So the Mets have two opposing forces to begin the year--a plethora of home games, yet those games are against the best teams the senior circuit has to offer.

When you're a losing team, the schedule always looks tougher than it probably is.  But make no mistake, the Mets are going to get challenged early and often, and though the season is certainly a marathon, the first month might just tell us a lot.