Strange and Wonderful Days at Citi Field

Yesterday was both a strange and wonderful day at Citi Field.

The Mets split a doubleheader with the Padres--in game 1 the Ace, Johan santana struggled.  In game 2, Jonathan Niese was one swing away from a perfect game.

There was also a triple play, a finger by some cretin named Lady Gaga, 4 strikeouts by David Wright, 4 hits on his birthday from Jose Reyes, a Henry Blanco homerun, and a whipped cream pie to the face of Niese from Angel Pagan.

Artwork courtesy of the wonderul Joe Petruccio

Niese (3-2) struck out six and walked none. He was sheer brilliance and only needed 108 pitches for the complete game, 1-hit, shutout.

"Ever since I came off the DL, I haven't felt anything," said Niese. "Before that, I felt some lingering soreness. When I went on the DL, I got some rest and it's paid off."

Ollie who?

"Give Rod the Nod" Campaign

Mets fans want to see Rod Barajas in the All-Star game, and we can certainly help by going here to vote.

The 34-year old Barajas has been a revelation for the Mets, both with his bat and his glove.  He currently leads all catchers in homeruns and RBIs, and his slugging percentage is second only to Miguel Olivo.

That said, the most important contribution he's making just might be with his personality.  Barajas has developed exceptional relationships with his pitchers and the amount of "shaking off" from last year to this year is noticeably less.

If you look at the stats, Barajas is certainly above average defensively, with the 9th best CERA in MLB to go along with the 4th best RF in the NL.  He does fall short in terms of throwing this year, but he commands the game from behind the plate, works well with the staff, and I have not seen him make a bad decision all year. 

Speaking of throwing--Barajas has an excellent arm and has thrown out 33% of baserunners in his career, and 34% just last year.  His totals this year are down, but they are also not running on him very often.  By season's end I fully expect that stat to normalize back toward the mean.

NL Catcher Sortable Fielding
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	GP	GS	FULL	TC	PO	A	E	DP	FPCT	RF	ZR	PB	CSB	CS	CS%	CERA
1	Geovany Soto	CHC	43	39	340	327	312	14	1	1	.997	8.64	3.012	1	30	8	.211	4.46
2	Russell Martin	LAD	46	45	404	387	357	25	5	1	.987	8.52	2.972	3	23	10	.303	3.99
3	Bengie Molina	SFO	40	37	320	303	281	21	1	1	.997	8.49	2.931	1	37	7	.159	3.29
4	Rod Barajas	NYM	41	39	349	328	314	12	2	3	.994	8.40	3.021	1	15	2	.118	4.23
5	Miguel Olivo	COL	38	38	335	303	274	26	3	2	.990	8.07	3.083	3	13	16	.552	3.46
6	Brian McCann	ATL	41	39	331	294	273	16	5	3	.983	7.87	3.170	1	23	9	.281	4.08
7	Yadier Molina	STL	46	45	403	350	323	25	2	5	.994	7.78	3.237	2	10	13	.565	2.52
8	Chris Snyder	ARI	41	39	345	286	260	26	0	0	1.000	7.47	3.395	2	25	11	.306	5.93
9	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	39	38	334	272	247	24	1	2	.996	7.30	3.463	1	24	7	.226	3.55
10	Ryan Doumit	PIT	44	42	367	299	276	21	2	1	.993	7.28	3.485	4	41	4	.089	5.09

There are certainly some great choices for all-star this year at catcher, but for many reasons, it's time for Mets fans to get out and vote to "Give Rod the Nod".

The current popular vote totals for National League catcher are:

1	Yadier Molina, Cardinals	316,795
2	Carlos Ruiz, Phillies	259,227
3	Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals	247,998
4	Brian McCann, Braves	203,377
5	Russell Martin, Dodgers	160,698

Barajas 2010 Season Stats
SPLITS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Season	42	149	22	40	8	0	11	30	4	20	0	0	.268	.291	.544	.835
Career	855	2670	321	641	157	1	103	385	147	464	2	2	.240	.284	.415	.699
Last 7 days	5	18	2	5	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	.278	.263	.500	.763
Projected	151	536	79	144	29	0	40	108	14	72	0	0	.268	.291	.544	.835

The Mets Lineup: What Would You Do?

Jerry Manuel gets beat up a lot on the blogs and on the chat boards, and I'm as guilty as the next guy of thinking, at times, that my ideas are better than his, especially when it comes to the lineup.

There are a few things I would do if I were manager:

GMJ would be shown the door on day one, that is a given.

More importantly, I would put Reyes back at the top of the order and restore normalcy to the world in an attempt to appease the baseball gods.

In fact, my lineup would be as follows:

Jose Reyes
Angel Pagan
David Wright
Jason Bay
Ike Davis
Jeff Francoeur
Rod Barajas
Luis Castillo

Batting Reyes at leadoff is a no-brainer.  The top of the Mets order is not a place for an experiment.

For his career, Jose Reyes is batting an even .300 when leading off a game.  In 2008, his last healthy season, he hit .340 when leading off a game and .327 when leading off an inning.

More importantly, he scored 43 first inning runs when leading off a game in 2008.  That's over 1/4 of your season with a run in the first frame.  If you think that was a fluke, it's not.  He scored a first inning run 37 times in 2007.

I did a detailed stats piece here on why Angel Pagan must bat second in this lineup.  Memo to Jerry:  Playing second base does not mean you have to hit second.

The rest of the pieces fall in place naturally, and Alex Cora or Henry Blanco fit right in when their caddy role dictates they play.  The rest of the lineup consists of every day players.

When Carlos Beltran gets back I would actually hit him in the 2 hole, which would give the Mets a mini-murderer's row of:

Reyes
Beltran
Wright
Bay

The bottom line is this--the manager's role before a game starts consists primarily of putting out the lineup that will maximize production.

I believe Jerry has failed in that capacity.

Good Morning Mets Fans!

Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco were afterthoughts this past off-season as they played second banana to the Benjie Molina.  If they were a musical duo, they'd have been called Garfunkel and Oates.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and the fans that fill the forum known as Citi Field are certainly grateful

Henry Blanco took a cue from Rod Barajas and blasted the Mets to victory in the 11th inning--this just one day after Barajas hit his walkoff bomb.

Blanco's blast enabled the Mets to win their 9th consecutive home game and sent the fan faithful home with a lot to cheer about.

"That was exciting to see Henry come up and hit that home run," manager Jerry Manuel said. "We swung the bats well the last couple of innings but I was wondering where we were going to get some runs."

"It was a fastball pretty much right down the middle but I never thought it was going to go out," Blanco said, "so I just keep running hard and see if I can make a triple. But I guess it went out."

Johan Santana pitched a strong game, going into the 8th inning on a very reasonable pitch count.  When two men singled their way on board in the 8th, Jerry Manuel made the switch to the bullpen with nearly disastrous results.  The bullpen couldn't hold on to Santana's 4-3 lead, and the Giants tied it on RBI single off Pedro Feliciano by Aubrey Huff.

I tend to beat up on Jerry's handling of the pitching staff, and yesterday was no different.  You have your ace on the mound, in the 8th, at 101 pitches, and an overworked bullpen.  In that situation the best move was to leave Santana in; instead Jerry goes to Nieve and Feliciano, both of whom are on pace to pitch in well over 100 games.  They gave up back to back singles and the lead was lost.

Enough is enough Jerry...the well is not endless, and when the Mets start playing back to back games of 10 or more, as the upcoming schedule shows, you're not going to have the guys you need because of all this ridiculous early season overuse.

That said, there was a lot of good news from the bullpen.  After Mejia recorded the final out of the 8th, Frankie Rodriguez came on and pitched two very strong innings.  Then Takahashi, the crafty Japanese import came on in the top of the 11th and once again pitched brilliantly.  He got the win thanks to Blanco, and afterward, he called Barajas and Blanco "My big brothers." 

It was another win in what is looking more and more like a very competitive and hard fought NL East.  The Mets are showing a lot of heart and grit--they are an easy team to root for.

Just imagine this club with Carlos Beltran.

Scoreboard
Final 11th	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H	E
San Francisco (17-12)	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	10	0
N.Y. Mets (17-13) «	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	7	0

Player of the Game

New York
H. Blanco	AB	5
	R	1
	H	3
	HR	1
	RBI	1

Enjoy your coffee!

Related articles by Zemanta

• Quote: Blanco for Barajas, Tipping Pitches, Heels (metsblog.com)
• Blanco HRs in 11th; Mets' home win streak at 9 (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
• Mets 6, Giants 5, 11 Innings: Different Game, Different Catcher, Same Result for Mets (nytimes.com)
• Mets 5 - Giants 4 May 8, 2010 (metsreport.com)
• Blanco sends Mets home happy with homer in 11th (cbssports.com)
• Note: about Rod Barajas, His Hand, and The Clutch (metsblog.com)

Looking at Mike Pelfrey's Success: Called Strikes

Much has been written about Mike Pelfrey's great start to 2010, and there have been any number of articles on the reasons why.

Many attribute it to confidence, having a personal catcher in Henry Blanco, better physical condition, his marriage, or simple maturity.

Whatever the reasons, we can certainly see the results when we compare his April 2009 to his April 2010.

Let's look at his pattern from the called strike zone side by side:

The first of the two pictures is his April 2009 called strikes.

As you can see, there is pretty wide pattern in 2009, with many pitches way outside of the zone, giving the batter ample opportunity to make his "non-swing" decision.

Additionally, the edge of the strike zone, where most pitcher's live, is ignored, especially the "up and in" or "up and away "spots that are the natural weaknesses of many hitters.

Now let's compare it to his April 2010 called strike zone.

In 2010, we see a much tighter pattern, and many more pitches an inch or less outside of the zone.  This shortens the batter's reaction time, and the results can be seen in many more called strikes.  Additionally it certainly appears that Pelf is working both the bottom of the zone, as he usually does, but more importantly he is working the up and in and up and away zones with much more frequency.

Bottom line--Pelfrey's control is tremendous right now, he is using all parts of the plate, and he is certainly pitching like an Ace.

Remember When the Mets Were Old?

I was just looking at the average age of some of the other teams, and the Mets sure do look young right now, or at least "not old", especially compared to past seasons.  In fact, I'd say the Mets have it about right.

The Mets are the "8th oldest" team in baseball, with an average age of  29.8, but that compares favorably to year's past when the team was easily the oldest in baseball at around 32 years of age on average.

The current oldest team is the Phillies, at 31.7 on average.  Of course having Jamie Moyer on the team skews that stat a bit.

The oldest Met is Henry Blanco at 38, and the youngest, of course, is Jenrry Mejia at age 20.

Most importantly, the core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Mike Pelfrey, Frankie Rodriguez is young, as are Jonathan Niese, Jeff Francoeur, Ike Davis, and other key players.

FUN FACT:  The Mets are the lightest team in all of MLB with an average weight of 202 lbs.  The heaviest are the Chicago White sox at a whopping 216.

MLB Roster Analysis
RK	TEAM	RHB	LHB	SH	RHP	LHP	HT	WT	AGE	YNG	OLD
1	Philadelphia	6	6	1	8	4	6-1	208	31.7	24	47
2	Boston	7	4	2	9	3	6-1	205	30.9	23	43
3	Houston	8	2	3	10	2	6-1	213	30.6	25	38
4	Milwaukee	6	6	1	8	4	6-1	209	30.5	23	42
5	Chicago Sox	8	4	1	8	4	6-2	216	30.2	23	42
6	NY Yankees	4	4	5	8	4	6-2	212	30.2	23	40
7	NY Mets	6	3	4	6	6	6-1	202	29.8	20	38
8	LA Dodgers	8	4	1	9	3	6-0	214	29.8	22	37
9	LA Angels	7	2	4	9	3	6-1	206	29.6	25	36
10	Atlanta	6	4	3	9	3	6-1	205	29.5	20	40
11	Colorado	6	6	1	7	5	6-2	203	29.4	24	39
12	Toronto	9	4	0	8	5	6-1	214	29.3	22	35
13	Cincinnati	9	4	0	10	2	6-1	215	29.2	22	40
14	Chicago Cubs	8	4	1	8	5	6-2	214	29.1	24	34
15	Washington	8	4	1	8	4	6-1	213	29.0	24	39
16	Kansas City	5	5	2	11	2	6-1	206	28.9	24	35
17	San Francisco	6	4	3	8	4	6-1	210	28.9	23	36
18	Minnesota	5	5	3	9	3	6-2	215	28.8	22	39
19	Seattle	8	3	2	10	2	6-1	209	28.7	23	40
20	Baltimore	9	2	2	8	4	6-2	209	28.6	23	35
21	St. Louis	9	3	1	9	3	6-2	214	28.6	23	37
22	Pittsburgh	7	4	3	7	4	6-1	211	28.4	23	38
23	Detroit	8	3	2	8	4	6-2	207	28.4	21	36
24	San Diego	7	4	2	9	3	6-1	208	28.1	22	42
25	Arizona	7	4	2	12	0	6-1	205	28.1	22	36
26	Texas	8	4	1	9	3	6-2	215	28.0	21	39
27	Tampa Bay	6	4	3	10	2	6-2	209	28.0	24	34
28	Cleveland	7	5	1	8	4	6-1	207	27.9	23	39
29	Florida	10	3	0	9	3	6-2	215	27.7	23	34
30	Oakland	6	5	2	7	5	6-1	206	27.2	22	32

Jerry Manuel vs Livan Hernandez

I got a great chuckle yesterday when Jerry Manuel seemed confused about a lack of intensity against Livan Hernandez.

Jerry, please take a good, long look in the mirror--it's not emotion, it's math.

You DID NOT put the team in a position to win yesterday, and you certainly could have.

Here is the starting lineup and their career batting average against Livan:

Reyes-.277
Cora-.244
Wright-.333
Bay-.250
Jacobs-.267
Francoeur-.400
Mathews-.077
Barajas-.000

Why not bat Fernando Tatis and his .450 average and 1.450 OPS against Livan (9 for 20)?

How about Henry Blanco and his .381 average and .959 OPS against Livan (8 for 21)?

Jeff Francoeur has a career 1.367 OPS against Livan, yet you once again hit him behind Mike Jacobs.

Wouldn't a 3-4-5-6 of Wright, Bay, Francoeur and Tatis made a bit more sense yesterday?  Can Jerry at least acknowledge the math?  

I honestly want to know who on the Mets staff is responsible for feeding Jerry information on matchups and what the statistics say.

So here's my lineup to begin yesterday's game:

Reyes-.277
Pagan-No history
Wright-.333
Bay-.250
Francoeur-.400
Tatis-.450
Blanco-.381
Cora-.244

The margins are razor thin this year, so it's up to the manager to have every kernel of data at his disposal and put the team in the best chance to succeed at all times.

With Jerry it's all about feel, and he swung and missed yesterday.

How's that for intensity?

Mets 2010 Season Prediction

The Mets will be better in 2010 than they were in 2009, the question is how much better?

While many pundits are predicting a long season, I believe there is reason for hope and that the Mets will compete well and challenge for the division.

Let's begin with a look at the positions:

Catcher. In the off-season I thought the Mets would fare best with a youth movement, both here and at first base.  Last year's catching duo of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro are long gone, and I truly felt Josh Thole could handle the job provided the Mets added a veteran caddy.  Instead of going with this plan, the Mets added a bunch of veteran backstops, and two of them are poised to handle the catching duties in 2010.  Both Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco are pretty sound defensive catchers with power and a canny knack for not getting on base.  I do think these guys will help the staff and do what doctors promise to their patients--do no harm.
Verdict:  Upgrade

First base. First is the other "youth movement" position.  Ike Davis had an outstanding 2009 minor league campaign, followed by a brilliant fall, and an even better spring--he goes to the minors.  Daniel Murphy, a big-time punching bag in 2009, had a steady spring, especially defensively.  Unfortunately for Mr Murphy, he tweaked his knee and start the season on the DL. It looks like once promising slugger Mike Jacobs has won the role as the opening day first sacker.  Jacobs has a very long swing, strikes out a ton, and plays defense like my grandmother--but he is a super nice guy and he'll hit the occasional long ball when his bat somehow finds the ball.  Fernando Tatis, who had a horrible spring, figures to get some playing time here as well.  I really would have liked the Mets to go with Chris Carter here.
Verdict:  Status Quo 

Second base. Let me start by saying I actually like Luis Castillo a lot.  That said, Jerry just uses him the wrong way.  He hit for average last year, and his OBP was terrific, but the man has no business in the 2 hole.  He bunts too often, has zero power, and his range at second is more limited by the day.  I am certainly OK with Castillo at second this year, but he should bat 8th--period.
Verdict:  Status Quo

Third base. Mr Met David Wright needs a big season--and he is going to have one.  Last year he was a mental train wreck, and he suffered more than most from the AAA lineup the Mets put out in 2009.  His power is back this spring, and he looks like the David Wright of old.  I think he'll hit 30+ homeruns with a ton of doubles and RBIs while playing slightly above league average third base.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Shortstop. Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose!  He's back, and he could be back on opening day if the Mets weren't so gun shy right now with injuries.  Jose is going to bring the go-go Mets back and spark the entire lineup with his talents.  With Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jason Bay behind him in the lineup, Reyes can easily score 120 runs in 2010.  He is going to miss the first 5 games of the season, but that's fine if he stays healthy the rest of the year.  I am expecting the best season of his career.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Outfield. Call me crazy, but I think the Mets 2010 outfield might be the best the team has ever had.  Jason Bay is a tremendous hitter and veteran presence who will provide the stability and power that the Mets never seem to find in their leftfielder.  Carlos Beltran, who should be back in a few weeks, is one of the premier centerfielders in the game.  He is a true five-tool player and a clutch performer.  Jeff Francoeur seems to have a new lease on life.  If he gets on base at anything above a .330 clip, the rest of his game will be there, including excellent defense, an agressive attitude, and a wonderful clubhouse presence.  This group will delight Mets fans all year--after Beltran gets back that is.  I am confident in Angel Pagan and Gary Mathews to fill in well--both guys are big time talents that add a great deal of depth to the team.
Verdict:  Major Upgrade

Rotation. Oh boy--this is the tough one.  The Mets really failed to address rotation concerns this off-season.  Johan Santana was lit up regularly this spring, but you just know he's going to compete for the Cy Young this year.  After that, it's a game of who knows?  John Maine has one excuse after another.  I expect him to battle all year, and struggle a lot.  A 10-15 record would not surprise me with a 4.50 to 4.80 ERA.  Mike Pelfrey is the real wildcard--he looks great from a physical perspective, but his pitches were really flat this spring.  That could be a function of him working on stuff, or it could be that he's lost some of the sink on his fastball.  Regardless, I do think he is the most overcoached pitcher in the rotation.  Oliver Perez might be done.  With the spring he's had, the Mets might be wise to send him to AAA for a month--the issue is there aren't many other options other than to start him wit the big club--and hope for the best.  Jonathan Niese had a solid spring, and seems ready to resume what looks to be a promising big league career.  Expect at least 15% of the Mets starts to come from pitchers other than these five.
Verdict:  Status Quo

Bullpen. The Mets bullpen looks pretty strong to me right now.  Francisco Rodriguez is a gamer--yes he had some health issues, but he's had a really solid spring, and there's no reason to think his 2010 won't be anything short of outstanding.  The setup man job was won by default by Pedro Feliciano.  This is not great in that Felciano excelled at his specialist role and has for quite some time--he is death to lefty's and can pitch almost daily.  Takahashi seems like a great fit, and he will definitely get some starts mixed in with his long relief role.  Kiko Calero should get the final spot--he will become a fan favorite.  The other members of the bullpen, which could feature Jennry Mejia (60% chance of him making it per Adam Rubin), are a decent mix of talents that should provide Jerry Manuel with a lot of options.
Verdict:  Upgrade

Prediction. While the Mets aren't on anyone's radar scope as anything near a favorite, they are also much better than many of the fourth and fifth place finishes that are being spouted by various pundits.  The team is solid offensively, has a true Ace, a great closer, and there is serious potential lurking in that starting rotation.  The bench is the best the Mets have had in a while, and the bullpen is really stocked with arms of different flavors that could be a real difference-maker in many a close game.

Survey Says.....

86-76, third in the NL East, miss the playoffs by 3.5 games.

The Many, Many Faces of Henry Blanco

Which one doesn't belong?

Very Upset Henry

Slightly Perturbed Henry

Double Back Tap Bro Hugging Henry

Stylin' While Adjusting the Package Henry

Loneliest Walk in Baseball Henry

"I Know What Henry is Really Thinking"

Taking My Ball and Going Home Henry

Baseball Been Berry, Berry Good to Me Henry

Ay Yi Yi Yi Yi Yi Yi Henry

Just Got the Bunt Sign Henry

Sometimes This Game is Too Much for Even Me Henry

My Facebook Page Rocks en espanol Henry