tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post8591720958782724711..comments2023-07-27T04:30:22.786-04:00Comments on NY Sports Dog: Mets Pre-Season Questions: Part 2, The OffenseDave Singerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04586506980388671106noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-64896181421371903912009-02-23T21:00:00.000-05:002009-02-23T21:00:00.000-05:00Here ya go...Pretty good reading.http://www.retros...Here ya go...<BR/><BR/>Pretty good reading.<BR/><BR/>http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/SmithD/Batting%20Order%20Lineup2006.pdfDave Singerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586506980388671106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-88291326526779547742009-02-23T20:59:00.000-05:002009-02-23T20:59:00.000-05:00James...there was a study done...I think you can f...James...there was a study done...I think you can find it on-line...let me look and post the link.Dave Singerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586506980388671106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-64410770032472628432009-02-23T20:55:00.000-05:002009-02-23T20:55:00.000-05:00Then again, "The Book" research also showed that t...Then again, "The Book" research also showed that the difference between the optimal lineup and inferior lineups is really really small. Like only a few runs per year. So as long as Castillo isn't batting 2nd (there's no way to justify that) I'm fine with whatever.Nick Nightingalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05277228875185339113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-758417716256571682009-02-23T20:36:00.000-05:002009-02-23T20:36:00.000-05:00Where'd you find that 8.4% number? The player who...Where'd you find that 8.4% number? The player who bats most often with 2 outs, nobody on (the worst situation in baseball) is also the 3 hitter.<BR/><BR/>Are you familiar with "The Book" by Tom Tango and a few others? His research is what I based what I said above on. It's fascinating stuff. He proved that the 3 best hitters should bat 1, 2, and 4 to maximize runs produced. Reyes-Beltran-Delgado-Wright should be the first 4. Or switch Wright with Beltran. Putting your best hitter 3rd is just traditionalist baseball thought that no one has really questioned or researched, but "The Book" has.Nick Nightingalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05277228875185339113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-83981651293073199402009-02-23T19:55:00.000-05:002009-02-23T19:55:00.000-05:00James,IMO it's pretty simple---statistical analysi...James,<BR/><BR/>IMO it's pretty simple---statistical analysis has clearly shown that the player who leads off an inning the LEAST in an entire batting order is...<BR/><BR/>The third place hitter.<BR/><BR/>The number is actually 8.4%<BR/><BR/>This means DW has better odds of coming to the plate with someone on base than anyone else.<BR/><BR/>In contrast, the leadoff hitter leads off an inning (any inning) 21.2% of the time.<BR/><BR/>You could argue that whomever in your lineup has the highest OBP should bat leadoff, though of course the point of diminishing returns quickly comes to the fore when you look at overall run production.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly enough, the guy that leads of an inning the second most times in a lineup is the cleanup hitter.<BR/><BR/>What if your best two hitters actually bat 3rd and 5th, and your two best OBP guys batted 1st and 4th?<BR/><BR/>Wouldn't that be something?Dave Singerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586506980388671106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-19677148378797414862009-02-23T19:20:00.000-05:002009-02-23T19:20:00.000-05:00Wright should not bat 3rd - your 3 best hitters sh...Wright should not bat 3rd - your 3 best hitters should be batting 1st, 2nd, and 4th. Delgado should be the 3 hitter. This is based on statistical research, not conventional baseball wisdom. <BR/><BR/>Think about it this way - the 1st 2 batters make outs to start the game more often then not. Why waste your best hitter in the 3 hole with 2 outs, nobody on? If 1 of the first 2 batters gets on, your 4 batter is almost guaranteed a plate appearance, barring a DP from the 3 batter. <BR/><BR/>I'm curious though - what are your guys reasons for putting Wright 3rd?Nick Nightingalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05277228875185339113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-73724677202413668942009-02-23T18:15:00.000-05:002009-02-23T18:15:00.000-05:00100% agree--leave DW at 3rd, and let Reyes leadoff...100% agree--leave DW at 3rd, and let Reyes leadoff.<BR/><BR/>With all the little issues we have, why create another one?<BR/><BR/>How many teams would kill for those two at leadoff and 3rd?Dave Singerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04586506980388671106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-80940884385446175932009-02-23T13:04:00.000-05:002009-02-23T13:04:00.000-05:00Wright should bat thrid period.I like Reys at lead...Wright should bat thrid period.<BR/><BR/>I like Reys at leadoff and either Church or Murphy in the 2 hole.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-43023906047340873772009-02-23T12:06:00.000-05:002009-02-23T12:06:00.000-05:00Sorry- I mean in the scenarios where Reyes leads o...Sorry- I mean in the scenarios where Reyes leads off, with Murph/Church batting 2nd, it would be interesting to bat Castillo 9.Ravihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06763299964186601417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-57371864413081738932009-02-23T12:05:00.000-05:002009-02-23T12:05:00.000-05:00Thats a very interesting question, as there are so...Thats a very interesting question, as there are so many ways to look at it.<BR/><BR/>I don't buy into Manuel's suggestion of batting Reyes #3. I think that the 3 hole belongs to David Wright. It is really the 1-2which has several possibilities. Any of following 4 arrangements are plausible: Reyes-Castillo, Reyes-Murphy, Reyes-Chuch, and Castillo-Reyes. I think that in the latter 3 scenarios, batting Castillo in the 9th spot could yield interesting results - we still have Jose's explosiveness beginning a game, and then every other time thru the order, you have a 35-40% chance of Castillo being on for Reyes.<BR/><BR/>I think the "safe" choice would be batting Reyes-Castillo-Wright at the top of the order. The most intriguing, would be Reyes-Murphy-Wright, with Castillo batting 9. You have three guys capable of getting on base at a clip of .350+, followed by Wright/Delgado/Beltran. This combination may help the team scoring runs later in games, when you don't have Reyes leading off the inning.Ravihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06763299964186601417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-12507338313013285902009-02-23T11:41:00.000-05:002009-02-23T11:41:00.000-05:00Great write up.Who should bat 1-3 in your opinion?...Great write up.<BR/><BR/>Who should bat 1-3 in your opinion?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7632970604176385004.post-804999560222553982009-02-23T07:55:00.000-05:002009-02-23T07:55:00.000-05:00Delgado has to get off to a good start. We can't ...Delgado has to get off to a good start. We can't afford to have him sporting a .300 OBP for the first 2 months of the season.<BR/><BR/>Another thing. We haven't heard much about how he's feeling other than the usual stuff.<BR/><BR/>Can't wait to see him in a few games.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com